TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.51×

TOR @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 2:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.16× Wind 6 mph out 95°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+14 ↑

1:10p

+16 ↑

2:10p

+19 ↑

3:10p

+21 ↑

4:10p

+20 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks +21

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 34 · vs Taillon ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 16 · vs Brown → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Jameson Taillon RHP · CHC

leak 96

2.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +625 C+ ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker +500 B ●●●●○

3 Yainer Diaz +850 C ●●●○○

FADE Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 82

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +475 C+ ●●○○○

2 George Springer +525 C ●●○○○

3 Jesús Sánchez +625 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 18.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jeremy Peña HOT vs Taillon +625 0.201 · 88.2 · 9.1% 33.3% 34.6% F B O C+ 65

· — Christian Walker vs Taillon +500 0.221 · 89.4 · 12.0% 18.2% 31.0% F B O B 70

· — Yainer Diaz vs Taillon +850 0.157 · 87.8 · 9.0% 20.0% 22.2% F B O C 57

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Brown +475 0.214 · 90.7 · 9.6% 8.3% 23.9% F B O C+ 61

· — Isaac Paredes COOL vs Taillon +575 0.164 · 86.2 · 9.1% 16.7% 14.6% F B O C 57

· TOR George Springer vs Brown +525 0.168 · 88.8 · 7.2% 15.4% 13.8% F B O C 51

· — Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Taillon Edge +265 0.315 · 94.5 · 16.2% 0.0% 28.6% F B O B 77

· — Cam Smith COOL vs Taillon +700 0.155 · 89.4 · 12.5% 9.1% 13.7% F B O C+ 60

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Brown Edge +625 0.157 · 90.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· — Jose Altuve COOL vs Taillon +750 0.147 · 85.6 · 8.6% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 49

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.162 · 88.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 49

· — Christian Vazquez COOL vs Taillon — 0.112 · 85.9 · 4.2% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 41

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Brown Edge +950 0.104 · 86.2 · 2.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 37

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Brown Edge +950 0.116 · 85.8 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Brown +1000 0.124 · 84.9 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.7% ← leak BRK 28.7% OFF 9.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.2% 7.8% 15.8% 13.1% C+ 61 +475

George Springer R

8.2% 6.0% 8.3% 7.5% C 51 +525

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

8.0% 19.6% 0.0% 10.4% C 51 +625

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

5.0% 15.4% 12.0% 8.4% D 49 —

144

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% D 40 +1000

154

Andres Gimenez L Edge

4.0% 2.4% 5.6% 3.7% D 38 +950

162

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.0% 2.6% 0.9% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.7% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.9% ← leak BRK 27.6% OFF 16.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.0% 23.0% 9.0% 18.0% B 77 +265

Christian Walker R

8.8% 10.1% 15.2% 9.9% B 70 +500

Neutral · 4

Jeremy Peña R

3.9% 7.8% 12.5% 5.7% C+ 65 +625

Cam Smith R

8.5% 14.5% 18.5% 10.8% C+ 60 +700

Yainer Diaz R

6.7% 3.3% 7.1% 5.6% C 57 +850

Isaac Paredes R

7.5% 3.5% 2.2% 5.7% C 57 +575

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Jose Altuve R

5.8% 5.3% 0.0% 5.1% D 49 +750

132

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.9% usage) carries Taillon's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Taillon fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jeremy Peña +625 · 65

Yainer Diaz +850 · 57

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.16× Wind 6 mph out 95°F retractable

+14

↑

7 mph · out

90°F

1:10p

+16

↑

9 mph · out

93°F

2:10p

+19

↑

12 mph · out

95°F

3:10p

+21

↑

14 mph · out

97°F

4:10p · peak

+20

↑

13 mph · out

95°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.51× 95°F, wind 6 mph S (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 61 C+ +475 COOL 20 0.214 90.7 9.6% 30.2%vs RHP 397 18.3% 8.3% 23.9% 32

2 George Springer 51 C +525 · 60 0.168 88.8 7.2% 22.9%vs RHP 393 11.5% 15.4% 13.8% 41

3 Jesús Sánchez 51 C +625 COOL 62 0.157 90.7 8.6% 20.0%vs RHP 398 10.0% 0.0% 15.6% 7

4 Brandon Valenzuela 49 D — COOL 79 0.162 88.1 7.6% 22.2%vs RHP 394 9.8% 0.0% 13.2% 9

5 Ernie Clement 40 D +1000 COOL 144 0.124 84.9 4.0% 6.6%vs RHP 375 7.5% 0.0% 8.6% 46

6 Andres Gimenez 38 D +950 COOL 154 0.116 85.8 5.1% 9.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 28

7 Nathan Lukes 37 D +950 COOL 162 0.104 86.2 2.5% 11.9%vs RHP 378 5.7% 0.0% 9.3% 32

vs Jameson Taillon · RHP 2.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 77 B +265 COOL 1 0.315 94.5 16.2% 27.4%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 33

2 Christian Walker 70 B +500 · 6 0.221 89.4 12.0% 26.1%vs RHP 391 18.7% 18.2% 31.0% 28

3 Jeremy Peña 65 C+ +625 HOT 12 0.201 88.2 9.1% 30.8%vs RHP 385 16.1% 33.3% 34.6% 38

4 Cam Smith 60 C+ +700 COOL 22 0.155 89.4 12.5% 18.0%vs RHP 411 11.8% 9.1% 13.7% 29

5 Yainer Diaz 57 C +850 WARM 32 0.157 87.8 9.0% 26.7%vs RHP 398 11.0% 20.0% 22.2% 28

6 Isaac Paredes 57 C +575 COOL 36 0.164 86.2 9.1% 18.5%vs RHP 377 11.9% 16.7% 14.6% 41

7 Jose Altuve 49 D +750 COOL 74 0.147 85.6 8.6% 22.2%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 40

8 Christian Vazquez 41 D — COOL 132 0.112 85.9 4.2% 12.9%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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