TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ BAL

Playable air · 1.09×

LAA @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 5 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:35p

+4 ↑

7:35p

+4 ↑

8:35p

+3 ↑

9:35p

+3 ↑

10:35p

best window is early — 6:35p at +5

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 19 · vs Detmers ⟷ Vaughn Grissom conv 14 · vs Rogers → edge: Coby Mayo

ATTACK Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 66

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +290 C ●●●○○

2 Pete Alonso +290 C ●●○○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 48

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · stingy — thin edge

1 Vaughn Grissom +575 D ●●○○○

2 Mike Trout +350 C ●○○○○

3 Zach Neto +350 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Coby Mayo: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 14.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo ✶ vs Detmers Edge +290 0.216 · 92.6 · 9.7% 14.3% 22.8% F B O C 52

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Detmers Edge +290 0.212 · 94.0 · 10.0% 16.7% 13.4% F B O C 53

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Rogers Edge +350 0.206 · 90.3 · 10.7% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Rogers Edge +575 0.147 · 89.0 · 6.8% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 40

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Detmers +400 0.176 · 89.5 · 7.5% 8.3% 13.2% F B O D 44

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Detmers Edge +750 0.118 · 87.6 · 6.0% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Rogers Edge +350 0.193 · 89.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 47

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.131 · 87.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 37

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Detmers — 0.119 · 86.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Rogers — 0.150 · 89.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Rogers +750 0.113 · 87.4 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.3% ← leak OFF 22.8% BRK 13.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R Edge

15.9% 12.5% 25.6% 17.2% C 50 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R Edge

14.6% 10.5% 8.4% 12.2% D 47 +350

143

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.6% 0.0% 6.8% 6.8% D 40 +575

145

Josh Lowe L

13.3% 7.1% 2.7% 9.3% D 40 —

160

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.5% 12.0% 7.4% 7.5% D 37 —

195

Nolan Schanuel L

3.0% 0.0% 2.6% 2.4% D 31 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.3% usage) carries Rogers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.7% ← leak BRK 43.5% OFF 9.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R Edge

14.8% 7.9% 14.7% 12.7% C 53 +290

Coby Mayo R Edge

10.3% 10.7% 19.0% 11.6% C 52 +290

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

116

Gunnar Henderson L

7.4% 6.1% 7.4% 7.0% D 44 +400

148

Colton Cowser L

14.3% 10.5% 2.3% 9.9% D 39 —

180

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 8.3% 0.0% 4.5% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.7% usage) carries Detmers's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Grissom Alonso Mayo

Legend

attack side — vs Detmers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 5 mph out 84°F open

↑

4 mph · out

85°F

6:35p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

83°F

7:35p

↑

3 mph · out

82°F

8:35p

↑

3 mph · out

81°F

9:35p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

79°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 84°F, wind 5 mph S (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.58 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 50 C +350 COOL 66 0.206 90.3 10.7% 20.0%vs LHP 409 15.4% 0.0% 12.9% 29

2 Zach Neto 47 D +350 COOL 92 0.193 89.3 9.0% 18.5%vs LHP 402 16.0% 0.0% 11.9% 27

3 Vaughn Grissom 40 D +575 · 143 0.147 89.0 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 10.6% 18.2% 8.9% 30

4 Josh Lowe 40 D — · 145 0.150 89.0 7.9% 12.9% 396 10.0% 0.0% 7.8% 11

5 Oswald Peraza 37 D — COOL 160 0.131 87.3 7.0% 26.3%vs LHP 386 6.2% 0.0% 11.0% 3

6 Nolan Schanuel 31 D +750 · 195 0.113 87.4 4.0% 16.7%vs LHP 372 6.4% 0.0% 7.2% 38

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 53 C +290 · 52 0.212 94.0 10.0% 15.6%vs LHP 401 18.8% 16.7% 13.4% 39

2 Coby Mayo ✶ 52 C +290 WARM 56 0.216 92.6 9.7% 40.0%vs LHP 405 15.5% 14.3% 22.8% 15

3 Gunnar Henderson 44 D +400 · 116 0.176 89.5 7.5% 33.3%vs LHP 390 15.5% 8.3% 13.2% 32

4 Colton Cowser 39 D — COOL 148 0.119 86.8 9.0% 20.0%vs LHP 417 12.5% 0.0% 8.5% 9

5 Leody Taveras 34 D +750 COOL 180 0.118 87.6 6.0% 7.7%vs LHP 419 3.9% 10.0% 7.1% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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