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Truist Park is live · 1.19×

MIA @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:15p

+2 ↑

8:15p

+1 ↑

9:15p

+1 ↑

10:15p

+0 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +3

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 31 · vs Elder ⟷ Matt Olson conv 37 · vs Pérez → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 79

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Heriberto Hernández +400 C ●●○○○

3 Owen Caissie +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 21

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +320 B ●●●●●

2 Ozzie Albies +575 C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Smith — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Pérez Edge +320 0.275 · 92.6 · 12.1% 42.9% 31.1% F B O B 72

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Elder Edge +320 0.223 · 92.0 · 8.9% 33.3% 29.3% F B O C+ 61

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Pérez Edge +575 0.177 · 86.8 · 6.5% 28.6% 17.8% F B O C 50

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Elder +400 0.233 · 91.9 · 9.2% 0.0% 31.4% F B O C 55

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Pérez Edge +400 0.192 · 91.6 · 12.1% 14.3% 14.2% F B O C 58

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Elder Edge +425 0.212 · 91.8 · 10.2% 0.0% 21.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Pérez Edge — 0.135 · 87.9 · 7.6% 28.6% 14.1% F B O D 46

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Pérez Edge +575 0.153 · 90.4 · 8.3% 20.0% 16.4% F B O D 49

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Elder — 0.134 · 86.7 · 3.5% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 39

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Elder Edge +950 0.101 · 86.9 · 4.9% 11.1% 8.2% F B O D 38

· ATL Austin Riley vs Pérez +500 0.140 · 90.9 · 10.4% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 48

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Elder +700 0.159 · 89.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 45

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Pérez +850 0.136 · 86.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Elder Edge +950 0.107 · 86.9 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.7% ← leak BRK 25.4% OFF 8.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.8% 17.9% 7.9% 12.1% C+ 61 +320

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.6% 8.1% 21.4% 15.8% C 57 +425

Heriberto Hernández R

12.2% 12.5% 16.7% 12.7% C 55 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

107

Otto Lopez R

9.3% 4.4% 1.8% 6.5% D 45 +700

149

Javier Sanoja R

2.1% 2.4% 0.0% 1.9% D 39 —

156

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.2% 2.1% 8.1% 3.6% D 38 +950

167

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.7% 2.7% 3.0% 3.9% D 37 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.7% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.3% ← leak BRK 35.2% OFF 9.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

16.8% 11.1% 10.8% 14.4% B 72 +320

Neutral · 2

Drake Baldwin L Edge

14.7% 20.3% 5.0% 14.7% C 58 +400

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.9% 1.9% 3.0% 4.5% C 50 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.4% 6.4% 6.7% 7.0% D 49 +575

Austin Riley R

13.0% 11.4% 2.9% 11.2% D 48 +500

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.0% 7.7% 2.6% 5.8% D 46 —

152

Mauricio Dubon R

3.1% 6.1% 5.3% 4.3% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.3% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Hernández Olson Baldwin Albies Yastrzemski Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Elder fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson +320 · 72

Kyle Stowers +320 · 61

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph slight_out 83°F open

↑

1 mph · in

80°F

7:15p · peak

↑

2 mph · cross

78°F

8:15p

↑

3 mph · cross

76°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

10:15p

↑

6 mph · cross

72°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 83°F, wind 2 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 61 C+ +320 WARM 19 0.223 92.0 8.9% 25.9%vs RHP 396 14.3% 33.3% 29.3% 29

2 Owen Caissie 57 C +425 COOL 34 0.212 91.8 10.2% 28.6%vs RHP 398 15.4% 0.0% 21.2% 4

3 Heriberto Hernández 55 C +400 COOL 40 0.233 91.9 9.2% 17.9%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 31.4% 25

4 Otto Lopez 45 D +700 COOL 107 0.159 89.4 6.6% 12.3%vs RHP 402 7.3% 0.0% 11.8% 47

5 Javier Sanoja 39 D — WARM 149 0.134 86.7 3.5% 2.9%vs RHP 383 5.5% 11.1% 8.4% 34

6 Jakob Marsee 38 D +950 WARM 156 0.101 86.9 4.9% 8.6%vs RHP 380 6.7% 11.1% 8.2% 21

7 Xavier Edwards 37 D +950 COOL 167 0.107 86.9 5.1% 3.1%vs RHP 396 4.6% 0.0% 7.4% 36

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B +320 · 3 0.275 92.6 12.1% 33.9%vs RHP 407 23.7% 42.9% 31.1% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 58 C +400 · 30 0.192 91.6 12.1% 28.3%vs RHP 403 18.3% 14.3% 14.2% 39

3 Ozzie Albies 50 C +575 · 67 0.177 86.8 6.5% 13.2%vs RHP 386 14.9% 28.6% 17.8% 42

4 Mike Yastrzemski 49 D +575 WARM 78 0.153 90.4 8.3% 18.2%vs RHP 392 9.7% 20.0% 16.4% 15

5 Austin Riley 48 D +500 WARM 88 0.140 90.9 10.4% 17.2%vs RHP 405 8.9% 7.7% 10.8% 22

6 Dominic Smith 46 D — · 99 0.135 87.9 7.6% 15.7%vs RHP 392 8.5% 28.6% 14.1% 19

7 Mauricio Dubon 38 D +850 WARM 152 0.136 86.7 6.5% 12.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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