TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ CLE

Playable air · 1.05×

NYM @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph in 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

+0 ↑

9:40p

+3 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +3

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 18 · vs Bibee ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 18 · vs Scott → edge: Francisco Lindor

ATTACK Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 91

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +370 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +625 D ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty — D ●●○○○

FADE Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 5

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — D ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

3 Chase Delauter +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Francisco Lindor: 9.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor ✶ COOL vs Bibee Edge +370 0.187 · 91.8 · 9.1% 15.4% 20.8% F B O D 49

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Scott — 0.201 · 88.9 · 9.3% 16.7% 19.3% F B O D 48

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Bibee +625 0.135 · 86.5 · 7.8% 20.0% 13.5% F B O D 42

· NYM Brett Baty vs Bibee Edge — 0.103 · 89.6 · 8.4% 10.0% 13.7% F B O D 39

· NYM Carson Benge vs Bibee Edge +525 0.135 · 89.2 · 7.9% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 41

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Bibee +500 0.182 · 90.1 · 11.9% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 46

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Bibee +700 0.114 · 89.3 · 7.1% 7.7% 7.0% F B O D 38

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Scott Edge — 0.191 · 87.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 13.9% F B O D 38

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Scott Edge +500 0.165 · 91.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 38

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Scott Edge +750 0.150 · 88.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 36

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Scott Edge +475 0.155 · 89.2 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 34

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Bibee Edge +575 0.137 · — · 8.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Scott Edge +850 0.124 · 86.5 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 31

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Scott Edge +900 0.059 · 83.5 · 1.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 70.5% ← leak BRK 15.3% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.2% 7.1% 7.5% 9.7% D 49 +370

Francisco Alvarez R

18.0% 15.6% 15.8% 16.9% D 46 +500

127

Marcus Semien R

10.1% 2.3% 8.3% 7.3% D 42 +625

137

Carson Benge L Edge

7.8% 8.9% 5.7% 7.7% D 41 +525

146

Brett Baty L Edge

7.7% 12.5% 4.3% 8.0% D 39 —

157

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 11.0% 0.0% 6.3% D 38 +700

169

A.J. Ewing L Edge

9.0% 8.3% 2.9% 7.7% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.5% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 68.5% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 3.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Rhys Hoskins R

12.2% 15.4% 13.3% 13.2% D 48 —

151

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.6% 14.9% 3.4% 7.6% D 38 —

153

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.8% 6.0% 1.6% 6.6% D 38 +500

171

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% D 36 +750

177

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 34 +475

193

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 4.8% 1.1% 3.0% D 31 +850

209

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 20 +900

Read the columns: the fastball family (68.5% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Hoskins

Legend

attack side — vs Bibee fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph in 82°F open

-5

↑

5 mph · in

82°F

6:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · in

80°F

7:40p

-1

↑

3 mph · cross

77°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

71°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 82°F, wind 5 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor ✶ 49 D +370 COOL 76 0.187 91.8 9.1% 15.8%vs RHP 394 11.1% 15.4% 20.8% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 46 D +500 WARM 97 0.182 90.1 11.9% 27.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 16

3 Marcus Semien 42 D +625 COOL 127 0.135 86.5 7.8% 17.0%vs RHP 391 11.0% 20.0% 13.5% 26

4 Carson Benge 41 D +525 WARM 137 0.135 89.2 7.9% 12.7%vs RHP 399 9.1% 7.7% 8.5% 29

5 Brett Baty 39 D — WARM 146 0.103 89.6 8.4% 11.3%vs RHP 395 5.8% 10.0% 13.7% 11

6 Bo Bichette 38 D +700 COOL 157 0.114 89.3 7.1% 9.4%vs RHP 385 9.1% 7.7% 7.0% 39

7 A.J. Ewing 36 D +575 · 169 0.137 — 8.0% 14.3%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 39

vs Christian Scott · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 48 D — HOT 84 0.201 88.9 9.3% 25.0%vs RHP 389 13.9% 16.7% 19.3% 8

2 Angel Martinez 38 D — COOL 151 0.191 87.6 6.9% 26.5%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 20

3 Chase Delauter 38 D +500 · 153 0.165 91.2 6.6% 25.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 32

4 Travis Bazzana 36 D +750 COOL 171 0.150 88.4 5.4% 19.1%vs RHP 396 11.4% 0.0% 10.1% 33

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D +475 COOL 177 0.155 89.2 6.1% 11.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 39

6 Brayan Rocchio 31 D +850 COOL 193 0.124 86.5 4.5% 12.3%vs RHP 386 7.5% 0.0% 8.0% 38

7 Steven Kwan 20 D +900 WARM 209 0.059 83.5 1.4% 1.7%vs RHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 6.7% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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