TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ AZ

Neutral air · 1.03×

SD @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 14 mph in 96°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-11 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

+5 ↑

8:40p

+14 ↑

9:40p

+19 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +19

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 20 · vs Bratt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 23 · vs Mize → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Mitch Bratt LHP · AZ

leak 64

1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +525 C ●●●○○

2 Ty France +525 C ●●○○○

3 Manny Machado +330 C ●●○○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 3

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +525 D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +390 D ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 11.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 7.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Bratt +525 0.157 · 90.1 · 9.4% 25.0% 15.3% F B O C 50

· SD Ty France ✶ COOL vs Bratt Edge +525 0.232 · 92.5 · 9.6% 7.7% 14.6% F B O C 55

· SD Manny Machado vs Bratt Edge +330 0.215 · 90.6 · 9.5% 7.7% 12.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Nolan Arenado vs Mize +525 0.184 · 85.3 · 6.9% 27.3% 19.0% F B O D 42

· — Corbin Carroll vs Mize Edge +390 0.227 · 91.8 · 9.0% 15.4% 10.7% F B O D 47

· — Geraldo Perdomo vs Mize Edge +850 0.125 · 87.1 · 4.8% 15.4% 5.7% F B O D 30

· — Ketel Marte COOL vs Mize Edge +305 0.193 · 90.3 · 8.2% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 42

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Bratt — 0.179 · 87.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 45

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Bratt +950 0.068 · 88.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Bratt Edge +700 0.101 · 88.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 37

· — Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.119 · 88.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 32

· — Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.132 · 87.6 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.1% ← leak BRK 39.2% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ty France R Edge

11.6% 11.6% 6.9% 11.0% C 55 +525

Manny Machado R Edge

13.4% 6.7% 7.5% 10.8% C 55 +330

Jackson Merrill L

12.6% 10.5% 5.8% 10.5% C 50 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

111

Gavin Sheets L

9.2% 4.3% 1.9% 6.6% D 45 —

168

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

7.3% 2.5% 3.7% 5.7% D 37 +700

181

Jake Cronenworth L

4.8% 4.0% 3.8% 4.5% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.1% usage) carries Bratt's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.3% BRK 30.9% OFF 23.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.1% 15.3% 11.5% 12.0% D 47 +390

125

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.8% 7.2% 3.8% 9.9% D 42 +305

126

Nolan Arenado R

10.6% 2.2% 6.2% 7.4% D 42 +525

192

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% D 32 —

197

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.4% 1.8% 2.4% 3.5% D 30 +850

203

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 1.6% 1.5% 3.1% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Carroll Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Bratt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Nolan Arenado +525 · 42

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 14 mph in 96°F retractable

-11

↑

12 mph · in

97°F

6:40p

-4

↑

12 mph · cross

93°F

7:40p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

89°F

8:40p

+14

↑

17 mph · out

86°F

9:40p

+19

↑

20 mph · out

82°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 96°F, wind 14 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 1.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 55 C +525 COOL 42 0.232 92.5 9.6% 23.1%vs LHP 394 17.2% 7.7% 14.6% 39

2 Manny Machado 55 C +330 · 45 0.215 90.6 9.5% 18.2%vs LHP 397 19.4% 7.7% 12.8% 39

3 Jackson Merrill 50 C +525 WARM 68 0.157 90.1 9.4% 13.0%vs LHP 410 14.2% 25.0% 15.3% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 45 D — COOL 111 0.179 87.6 7.4% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.1% 0.0% 9.3% 22

5 Xander Bogaerts 37 D +700 WARM 168 0.101 88.2 6.9% 5.6%vs LHP 396 7.6% 0.0% 6.4% 32

6 Jake Cronenworth 33 D +950 COOL 181 0.068 88.0 6.2% 8.1% 389 1.5% 0.0% 8.0% 36

vs Casey Mize · RHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 47 D +390 WARM 94 0.227 91.8 9.0% 17.4%vs RHP 401 13.8% 15.4% 10.7% 41

2 Ketel Marte 42 D +305 COOL 125 0.193 90.3 8.2% 14.5%vs RHP 412 14.7% 8.3% 8.8% 39

3 Nolan Arenado 42 D +525 WARM 126 0.184 85.3 6.9% 19.2%vs RHP 391 14.4% 27.3% 19.0% 33

4 Adrian Del Castillo 32 D — COOL 192 0.119 88.4 6.5% 16.1%vs RHP 400 7.1% 0.0% 6.1% 18

5 Geraldo Perdomo 30 D +850 WARM 197 0.125 87.1 4.8% 11.0%vs RHP 383 8.1% 15.4% 5.7% 44

6 Ildemaro Vargas 28 D — COOL 203 0.132 87.6 4.5% 9.4%vs RHP 399 4.9% 0.0% 5.5% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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