TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.17×

LAD @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

1:20p

+3 ↑

2:20p

+2 ↑

3:20p

+1 ↑

4:20p

-1 ↑

5:20p

best window is early — 1:20p at +3

Best of game Max Muncy conv 26 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 28 · vs Lauer → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 93

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Kyle Tucker +500 D ●●●○○

3 Shohei Ohtani +210 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Eric Lauer LHP · LAD

leak 89

2.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +350 C+ ●●●●○

3 Nico Hoerner +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Lauer Edge +320 0.208 · 89.1 · 10.4% 25.0% 30.5% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Lauer +350 0.251 · 90.2 · 11.1% 23.1% 31.9% F B O C+ 69

· LAD Max Muncy vs Imanaga +330 0.235 · 90.4 · 11.2% 20.0% 33.0% F B O C+ 64

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Imanaga +210 0.246 · 93.5 · 12.3% 16.7% 24.4% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Lauer Edge +400 0.189 · 89.4 · 8.8% 7.7% 14.3% F B O C 55

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Imanaga Edge +330 0.185 · 88.9 · 8.4% 8.3% 13.0% F B O C 51

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Lauer +425 0.149 · 88.5 · 10.1% 7.7% 10.2% F B O C 52

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Lauer — 0.224 · 91.7 · 11.1% 0.0% 16.7% F B O C 57

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Lauer Edge +390 0.196 · 89.3 · 11.2% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 58

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Imanaga +425 0.176 · 90.0 · 9.3% 0.0% 12.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker HOT vs Imanaga +500 0.137 · 89.0 · 8.0% 27.3% 15.0% F B O D 47

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Lauer Edge +850 0.103 · 86.1 · 3.3% 25.0% 12.0% F B O D 40

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Lauer Edge +425 0.118 · 87.6 · 8.1% 11.1% 9.7% F B O D 46

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Imanaga Edge +400 0.160 · 89.3 · 9.4% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 46

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Lauer Edge +425 0.132 · 88.0 · 6.7% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 45

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Imanaga Edge +425 0.167 · 90.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.9% ← leak OFF 32.9% BRK 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Shohei Ohtani L

20.1% 16.0% 9.8% 16.2% C+ 66 +210

Max Muncy L

15.1% 7.1% 8.8% 11.9% C+ 64 +330

Andy Pages R Edge

7.0% 9.4% 8.1% 7.6% C 51 +330

Freddie Freeman L

9.3% 9.3% 9.1% 9.2% C 50 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L

9.9% 1.5% 3.3% 6.7% D 47 +500

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.4% 6.5% 3.3% 7.6% D 47 +425

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

9.0% 7.1% 12.8% 9.5% D 46 +400

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.9% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.6% ← leak BRK 20.8% OFF 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

9.7% 12.7% 14.3% 11.4% C+ 69 +350

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.5% 9.6% 10.0% 10.1% C+ 63 +320

Ian Happ S Edge

15.0% 15.9% 1.5% 11.8% C 58 +390

Michael Conforto L

9.9% 18.8% 13.6% 11.9% C 57 —

Dansby Swanson R Edge

7.1% 6.7% 12.5% 7.6% C 55 +400

Michael Busch L

12.6% 4.2% 2.4% 9.3% C 52 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

102

Carson Kelly R Edge

7.1% 4.4% 5.9% 6.1% D 46 +425

109

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.0% 6.3% 6.2% 4.2% D 45 +425

140

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.1% 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% D 40 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.6% usage) carries Lauer's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Tucker Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Hoerner

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Seiya Suzuki +320 · 63

Pete Crow-Armstrong +350 · 69

Max Muncy +330 · 64

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph out 80°F open

↑

3 mph · slight_out

81°F

1:20p · peak

↑

4 mph · cross

80°F

2:20p

↑

5 mph · cross

80°F

3:20p

↑

5 mph · cross

79°F

4:20p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 80°F, wind 4 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.65 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 66 C+ +210 · 11 0.246 93.5 12.3% 29.4%vs LHP 405 19.3% 16.7% 24.4% 35

2 Max Muncy 64 C+ +330 WARM 14 0.235 90.4 11.2% 26.1%vs LHP 411 18.7% 20.0% 33.0% 23

3 Andy Pages 51 C +330 COOL 63 0.185 88.9 8.4% 16.1%vs LHP 390 13.5% 8.3% 13.0% 41

4 Freddie Freeman 50 C +425 COOL 72 0.176 90.0 9.3% 15.4%vs LHP 398 11.8% 0.0% 12.9% 41

5 Kyle Tucker 47 D +500 HOT 91 0.137 89.0 8.0% 7.4%vs LHP 397 7.5% 27.3% 15.0% 29

6 Mookie Betts 47 D +425 COOL 95 0.167 90.6 8.5% 5.6%vs LHP 389 9.9% 0.0% 10.0% 39

7 Teoscar Hernandez 46 D +400 COOL 96 0.160 89.3 9.4% 19.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 36

vs Eric Lauer · LHP 2.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 69 C+ +350 WARM 8 0.251 90.2 11.1% 21.7%vs LHP 393 19.3% 23.1% 31.9% 32

2 Seiya Suzuki 63 C+ +320 WARM 17 0.208 89.1 10.4% 36.8%vs LHP 405 16.3% 25.0% 30.5% 31

3 Ian Happ 58 C +390 COOL 31 0.196 89.3 11.2% 14.3%vs LHP 404 16.8% 0.0% 13.4% 27

4 Michael Conforto 57 C — COOL 35 0.224 91.7 11.1% 19.1% 399 7.5% 0.0% 16.7% 13

5 Dansby Swanson 55 C +400 WARM 43 0.189 89.4 8.8% 22.7%vs LHP 403 12.5% 7.7% 14.3% 31

6 Michael Busch 52 C +425 COOL 55 0.149 88.5 10.1% 12.9%vs LHP 401 13.0% 7.7% 10.2% 47

7 Carson Kelly 46 D +425 COOL 102 0.118 87.6 8.1% 20.8%vs LHP 413 7.4% 11.1% 9.7% 25

8 Alex Bregman 45 D +425 · 109 0.132 88.0 6.7% 12.5%vs LHP 389 9.0% 8.3% 8.8% 39

9 Nico Hoerner 40 D +850 WARM 140 0.103 86.1 3.3% 8.0%vs LHP 381 6.2% 25.0% 12.0% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.