TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.10×

MIN @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 3 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +6

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 23 · vs Kremer ⟷ Trevor Larnach conv 30 · vs Cameron → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 98

3.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.54 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Carter Jensen +400 C ●●○○○

3 Salvador Perez +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 82

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●●●

2 Royce Lewis +370 C ●●●○○

3 Brooks Lee +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jac Caglianone ✶ COOL vs Kremer Edge +330 0.203 · 92.9 · 11.1% 22.2% 23.4% F B O C+ 60

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Cameron Edge +370 0.186 · 89.9 · 10.7% 18.2% 15.2% F B O C 52

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Cameron +425 0.238 · 92.6 · 10.3% 9.1% 18.0% F B O C 56

· — Carter Jensen vs Kremer Edge +400 0.190 · 90.5 · 8.9% 9.1% 14.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach HOT vs Cameron — 0.171 · 87.4 · 8.5% 37.5% 21.8% F B O D 49

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Cameron Edge +700 0.176 · 87.7 · 5.7% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 44

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Cameron Edge +950 0.099 · 84.8 · 5.5% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 34

· — Salvador Perez vs Kremer +400 0.162 · 89.1 · 9.3% 0.0% 20.3% F B O D 47

· MIN Josh Bell vs Cameron Edge +525 0.169 · 89.9 · 9.3% 10.0% 9.8% F B O D 46

· — Isaac Collins COOL vs Kremer Edge +700 0.131 · 88.4 · 6.8% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 43

· — Michael Massey COOL vs Kremer Edge +575 0.156 · 89.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Cameron Edge +750 0.115 · 89.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Cameron Edge +750 0.077 · 87.2 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.3% ← leak BRK 27.6% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L

8.7% 20.6% 11.1% 11.8% C 56 +425

Royce Lewis R Edge

15.3% 8.2% 8.7% 12.5% C 52 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Trevor Larnach L

8.1% 9.3% 5.7% 8.0% D 49 —

101

Josh Bell S Edge

10.7% 13.2% 5.8% 10.2% D 46 +525

117

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.0% 0.0% 1.2% 3.6% D 44 +700

172

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 11.8% 6.5% 6.7% D 35 +750

178

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.5% 2.3% 0.0% 3.4% D 34 +950

201

Austin Martin R Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 29 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.3% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.0% ← leak OFF 30.0% BRK 14.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.3% 11.1% 18.0% 14.4% C+ 60 +330

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.7% 8.7% 9.5% 9.9% C 53 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Salvador Perez R

13.6% 8.2% 7.0% 10.2% D 47 +400

118

Michael Massey L Edge

7.1% 2.2% 5.8% 5.9% D 44 +575

123

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.8% 0.0% 10.0% 5.4% D 43 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.0% usage) carries Kremer's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lewis Larnach Lee Keaschall Caglianone

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jac Caglianone +330 · 60

Trevor Larnach — · 49

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 3 mph slight_out 84°F open

↑

7 mph · slight_out

82°F

6:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:40p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

80°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

9:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 84°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 56 C +425 COOL 37 0.238 92.6 10.3% 28.6%vs LHP 390 17.4% 9.1% 18.0% 38

2 Royce Lewis 52 C +370 WARM 58 0.186 89.9 10.7% 26.7%vs LHP 398 17.1% 18.2% 15.2% 35

3 Trevor Larnach 49 D — HOT 75 0.171 87.4 8.5% 28.6%vs LHP 397 10.1% 37.5% 21.8% 25

4 Josh Bell 46 D +525 WARM 101 0.169 89.9 9.3% 10.7%vs LHP 404 10.5% 10.0% 9.8% 29

5 Brooks Lee 44 D +700 COOL 117 0.176 87.7 5.7% 13.8%vs LHP 369 14.6% 16.7% 11.9% 36

6 Victor Caratini 35 D +750 COOL 172 0.115 89.5 7.7% 14.3%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 15

7 Luke Keaschall 34 D +950 WARM 178 0.099 84.8 5.5% 4.3%vs LHP 373 6.2% 18.2% 8.9% 31

8 Austin Martin 29 D +750 COOL 201 0.077 87.2 4.2% 3.9%vs LHP 392 1.7% 0.0% 6.7% 16

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 3.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.54 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 60 C+ +330 COOL 21 0.203 92.9 11.1% 28.9%vs RHP 416 14.1% 22.2% 23.4% 31

2 Carter Jensen 53 C +400 WARM 51 0.190 90.5 8.9% 18.1%vs RHP 396 14.8% 9.1% 14.8% 24

3 Salvador Perez 47 D +400 WARM 90 0.162 89.1 9.3% 19.7%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 20.3% 37

4 Michael Massey 44 D +575 COOL 118 0.156 89.9 7.1% 8.5%vs RHP 398 5.4% 0.0% 10.6% 32

5 Isaac Collins 43 D +700 COOL 123 0.131 88.4 6.8% 8.7%vs RHP 394 6.3% 9.1% 9.0% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.