TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CIN

Playable air · 1.07×

PIT @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 9 mph in 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +0

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 18 · vs Abbott ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 34 · vs Ashcraft → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 51

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe +290 C+ ●●●○○

2 Nick Gonzales +700 D ●●●○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Braxton Ashcraft RHP · PIT

leak 27

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday +330 C ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +350 C+ ●●●●●

3 Nathaniel Lowe +475 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: Match 27.3% · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Ashcraft Edge +330 0.235 · 89.0 · 8.3% 33.3% 35.0% F B O C 59

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Ashcraft +350 0.217 · 90.5 · 9.4% 38.5% 27.3% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe vs Ashcraft Edge +475 0.215 · 89.2 · 8.1% 18.2% 24.5% F B O C 56

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Abbott +290 0.238 · 91.0 · 9.5% 15.4% 21.4% F B O C+ 64

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Ashcraft Edge +320 0.225 · 94.3 · 9.7% 14.3% 20.8% F B O C+ 60

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Abbott Edge +390 0.187 · 90.9 · 9.2% 6.7% 16.2% F B O C 57

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Abbott — 0.185 · 89.4 · 7.4% 6.7% 13.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· PIT Nick Gonzales HOT vs Abbott Edge +700 0.097 · 86.1 · 4.8% 26.7% 8.8% F B O D 43

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Ashcraft — 0.146 · 91.0 · 8.5% 8.3% 17.4% F B O D 48

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Ashcraft +370 0.188 · 88.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 24.6% F B O D 48

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Abbott Edge +950 0.068 · 84.9 · 3.1% 7.7% 8.1% F B O D 36

· PIT Marcell Ozuna COOL vs Abbott Edge +370 0.121 · 89.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 47

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Ashcraft +575 0.136 · 88.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 43

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Ashcraft Edge — 0.084 · 87.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.1% ← leak BRK 33.7% OFF 18.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Brandon Lowe L

16.2% 7.6% 9.3% 12.1% C+ 64 +290

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.3% 15.3% 7.8% 11.5% C 57 +390

Ryan O'Hearn L

8.4% 6.8% 3.6% 7.5% C 54 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

102

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.1% 10.3% 0.0% 7.9% D 47 +370

135

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.6% 5.4% 0.0% 3.2% D 43 +700

177

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.1% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 49.6% FB 45.3% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R

9.3% 17.1% 10.3% 13.8% C+ 62 +350

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

11.5% 19.6% 3.8% 14.4% C+ 60 +320

Jj Bleday L Edge

8.7% 12.8% 5.8% 10.2% C 59 +330

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

12.5% 9.1% 11.8% 10.1% C 56 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

5.6% 11.8% 6.7% 10.0% D 48 +370

Tyler Stephenson R

7.1% 13.9% 6.2% 11.2% D 48 —

129

Matt Mclain R

9.7% 10.1% 0.0% 9.0% D 43 +575

175

Tj Friedl L Edge

4.0% 2.9% 0.0% 2.6% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ashcraft's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Gonzales Stewart Cruz Bleday Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jj Bleday +330 · 59

Sal Stewart +350 · 62

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 9 mph in 74°F open

-3

↑

10 mph · in

75°F

6:40p

-3

↑

10 mph · in

75°F

7:40p

-2

↑

9 mph · in

74°F

8:40p

-1

↑

8 mph · in

73°F

9:40p

↑

7 mph · in

72°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 74°F, wind 9 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 64 C+ +290 · 17 0.238 91.0 9.5% 15.4%vs LHP 393 16.3% 15.4% 21.4% 32

2 Bryan Reynolds 57 C +390 WARM 37 0.187 90.9 9.2% 21.4%vs LHP 409 13.1% 6.7% 16.2% 34

3 Ryan O'Hearn 54 C — COOL 50 0.185 89.4 7.4% 16.7%vs LHP 385 13.4% 6.7% 13.4% 42

4 Marcell Ozuna 47 D +370 COOL 102 0.121 89.2 7.6% 21.1%vs LHP 404 8.6% 0.0% 11.3% 20

5 Nick Gonzales 43 D +700 HOT 135 0.097 86.1 4.8% 4.2%vs LHP 397 7.7% 26.7% 8.8% 52

6 Jake Mangum 36 D +950 COOL 177 0.068 84.9 3.1% 0.0%vs LHP 408 4.5% 7.7% 8.1% 42

vs Braxton Ashcraft · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 62 C+ +350 · 22 0.217 90.5 9.4% 22.5%vs RHP 393 16.0% 38.5% 27.3% 35

2 Elly De La Cruz 60 C+ +320 · 25 0.225 94.3 9.7% 19.6%vs RHP 398 16.9% 14.3% 20.8% 37

3 Jj Bleday 59 C +330 WARM 29 0.235 89.0 8.3% 23.2%vs RHP 388 20.0% 33.3% 35.0% 30

4 Nathaniel Lowe 56 C +475 WARM 39 0.215 89.2 8.1% 27.9%vs RHP 395 15.6% 18.2% 24.5% 33

5 Eugenio Suarez 48 D +370 WARM 86 0.188 88.6 8.1% 26.3%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 24.6% 23

6 Tyler Stephenson 48 D — HOT 88 0.146 91.0 8.5% 18.2%vs RHP 395 7.0% 8.3% 17.4% 21

7 Matt Mclain 43 D +575 COOL 129 0.136 88.6 7.6% 10.2%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 5

8 Tj Friedl 36 D — COOL 175 0.084 87.4 4.1% 7.9%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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