TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.78×

DET @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.19× Wind 9 mph out 94°F Roof open

Hourly window

+16 ↑

6:40p

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best window is early — 6:40p at +16

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 31 · vs Perkins ⟷ Nick Kurtz conv 19 · vs Valdez → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 69

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Spencer Torkelson +280 C+ ●●●●○

3 Kevin Mcgonigle +390 D ●●●○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 65

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Kurtz +320 C+ ●●●○○

2 Tyler Soderstrom +475 C ●●●○○

3 Jacob Wilson +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 10.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Perkins +320 0.247 · 89.4 · 9.0% 25.0% 36.2% F B O C+ 67

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Perkins +280 0.212 · 89.7 · 10.2% 25.0% 29.8% F B O C+ 64

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Valdez +320 0.227 · 93.4 · 10.7% 14.3% 22.8% F B O C+ 64

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom COOL vs Valdez +475 0.220 · 90.2 · 7.7% 15.4% 19.6% F B O C 58

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Perkins Edge +330 0.181 · 91.2 · 10.6% 15.4% 15.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Perkins Edge +390 0.131 · 88.0 · 7.2% 25.0% 9.1% F B O D 47

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Valdez Edge +850 0.125 · 84.0 · 3.9% 23.1% 10.3% F B O D 42

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Valdez — 0.155 · 90.0 · 6.8% 10.0% 15.8% F B O D 48

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Perkins +500 0.122 · 85.8 · 7.4% 12.5% 9.3% F B O D 46

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Valdez +625 0.119 · 89.2 · 6.8% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 44

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Valdez Edge +525 0.077 · 90.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 41

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Perkins Edge +525 0.153 · 88.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 47

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Perkins Edge +575 0.109 · 85.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 39

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Valdez +950 0.084 · 86.4 · 2.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.8% ← leak BRK 32.0% OFF 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dillon Dingler R

12.2% 9.4% 7.7% 10.9% C+ 67 +320

Spencer Torkelson R

14.3% 12.1% 16.7% 13.9% C+ 64 +280

Riley Greene L Edge

16.9% 17.2% 7.8% 15.3% C 58 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

100

Colt Keith L Edge

7.2% 13.2% 3.7% 7.4% D 47 +525

105

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.5% 7.4% 1.8% 7.2% D 47 +390

112

Gleyber Torres R

9.0% 5.7% 0.0% 7.5% D 46 +500

157

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

4.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.8% D 39 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.8% usage) carries Perkins's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.8% ← leak BRK 32.9% OFF 19.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L

16.4% 21.4% 17.9% 18.0% C+ 64 +320

Tyler Soderstrom L

8.9% 16.9% 0.0% 9.5% C 58 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L

7.8% 4.5% 8.9% 7.3% D 48 —

125

Lawrence Butler L

6.7% 13.2% 2.1% 6.8% D 44 +625

141

Jacob Wilson R Edge

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 42 +850

145

Henry Bolte R Edge

5.8% 7.7% 5.6% 6.3% D 41 +525

185

Jeff Mcneil L

0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.8% usage) carries Valdez's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torkelson Greene Mcgonigle Kurtz Soderstrom Wilson

Legend

attack side — vs Perkins fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +320 · 67

Spencer Torkelson +280 · 64

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.19× Wind 9 mph out 94°F open

+16

↑

9 mph · out

91°F

6:40p · peak

+16

↑

10 mph · out

86°F

7:40p

+15

↑

10 mph · out

83°F

8:40p

+14

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

9:40p

+12

↑

8 mph · slight_out

79°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.78× 94°F, wind 9 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.33 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 67 C+ +320 COOL 10 0.247 89.4 9.0% 31.2%vs RHP 396 19.8% 25.0% 36.2% 37

2 Spencer Torkelson 64 C+ +280 · 15 0.212 89.7 10.2% 26.2%vs RHP 394 17.0% 25.0% 29.8% 37

3 Riley Greene 58 C +330 COOL 33 0.181 91.2 10.6% 17.6%vs RHP 399 12.0% 15.4% 15.8% 37

4 Colt Keith 47 D +525 COOL 100 0.153 88.6 7.4% 12.9%vs RHP 389 6.6% 0.0% 11.5% 30

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 47 D +390 COOL 105 0.131 88.0 7.2% 7.7%vs RHP 399 16.7% 25.0% 9.1% 43

6 Gleyber Torres 46 D +500 WARM 112 0.122 85.8 7.4% 12.9%vs RHP 391 7.8% 12.5% 9.3% 24

7 Zach Mckinstry 39 D +575 WARM 157 0.109 85.2 4.5% 7.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 34

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 64 C+ +320 COOL 16 0.227 93.4 10.7% 24.0%vs LHP 412 20.2% 14.3% 22.8% 7

2 Tyler Soderstrom 58 C +475 COOL 32 0.220 90.2 7.7% 30.4%vs LHP 405 15.8% 15.4% 19.6% 39

3 Carlos Cortes 48 D — COOL 89 0.155 90.0 6.8% 13.2% 403 5.2% 10.0% 15.8% 14

4 Lawrence Butler 44 D +625 WARM 125 0.119 89.2 6.8% 14.3%vs LHP 405 4.4% 9.1% 9.4% 26

5 Jacob Wilson 42 D +850 WARM 141 0.125 84.0 3.9% 8.0%vs LHP 386 7.4% 23.1% 10.3% 51

6 Henry Bolte 41 D +525 COOL 145 0.077 90.1 6.2% 37.5%vs LHP 422 6.9% 0.0% 12.2% 21

7 Jeff Mcneil 34 D +950 WARM 185 0.084 86.4 2.6% 0.0%vs LHP 377 3.1% 0.0% 7.3% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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