TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.99×

BOS @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 9:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.32× Wind 7 mph out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+18 ↑

6:10p

+17 ↑

7:10p

+16 ↑

8:10p

+15 ↑

9:10p

+14 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +18

Best of game Max Muncy conv 36 · vs Tolle ⟷ Ceddanne Rafaela conv 29 · vs Yamamoto → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 93

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●●●

2 Dalton Rushing +475 C ●●●●○

3 Shohei Ohtani +225 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 74

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ceddanne Rafaela +750 C ●●●●○

2 Willson Contreras — C+ ●●●●○

3 Wilyer Abreu +400 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ vs Tolle — 0.244 · 90.3 · 9.9% 27.3% 43.9% F B O C+ 65

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Yamamoto +750 0.164 · 86.4 · 5.5% 35.7% 22.7% F B O C 50

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Yamamoto — 0.259 · 90.6 · 9.7% 14.3% 41.7% F B O C+ 65

· LAD Dalton Rushing vs Tolle +475 0.224 · 89.5 · 9.4% 18.2% 31.5% F B O C 58

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Tolle +225 0.246 · 93.7 · 10.9% 15.4% 30.3% F B O C+ 66

· BOS Wilyer Abreu COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +400 0.186 · 89.7 · 8.9% 14.3% 25.3% F B O C 55

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Tolle Edge +390 0.191 · 89.1 · 7.5% 7.7% 14.9% F B O C 52

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Yamamoto +525 0.196 · 88.8 · 7.9% 8.3% 13.4% F B O C 52

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Tolle +425 0.184 · 90.1 · 8.3% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Tolle +500 0.134 · 88.9 · 6.9% 16.7% 14.2% F B O D 45

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Tolle Edge +475 0.176 · 90.6 · 7.6% 7.7% 12.9% F B O D 49

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Yamamoto +750 0.152 · 84.0 · 4.0% 7.1% 13.4% F B O D 41

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +525 0.140 · 89.4 · 8.0% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 46

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Yamamoto — 0.090 · 91.4 · 6.8% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 39

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Tolle Edge +425 0.149 · 89.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 43

· BOS Masataka Yoshida COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +750 0.117 · 88.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.7% ← leak OFF 27.3% BRK 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Willson Contreras R

11.9% 21.9% 16.1% 14.1% C+ 65 —

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.2% 12.9% 12.3% 12.4% C 55 +400

Andruw Monasterio R

8.8% 16.7% 9.6% 9.7% C 52 +525

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.9% 7.1% 5.4% 4.8% C 50 +750

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

108

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.7% 6.8% 7.0% 9.9% D 46 +525

144

Caleb Durbin R

2.7% 3.6% 1.4% 2.4% D 41 +750

152

Carlos Narvaez R

7.8% 0.0% 8.8% 7.1% D 39 —

154

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 2.6% D 39 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.7% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 88.9% ← leak BRK 7.8% OFF 3.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Shohei Ohtani L

21.1% 10.3% 14.9% 16.7% C+ 66 +225

Max Muncy L

16.7% 15.0% 6.8% 13.8% C+ 65 —

Dalton Rushing L

13.0% 17.5% 2.9% 11.9% C 58 +475

Andy Pages R Edge

7.5% 8.4% 9.7% 8.0% C 52 +390

Freddie Freeman L

9.9% 9.3% 9.6% 9.7% C 51 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Mookie Betts R Edge

10.1% 3.4% 6.7% 8.1% D 49 +475

119

Kyle Tucker L

9.8% 3.4% 1.5% 6.6% D 45 +500

128

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.2% 13.2% 8.3% 9.2% D 43 +425

Read the columns: the fastball family (88.9% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Rafaela Ohtani Muncy Rushing Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Tolle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Max Muncy — · 65

Ceddanne Rafaela +750 · 50

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.32× Wind 7 mph out 91°F open

+18

↑

7 mph · out

85°F

6:10p · peak

+17

↑

6 mph · out

82°F

7:10p

+16

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

8:10p

+15

↑

4 mph · out

78°F

9:10p

+14

↑

3 mph · out

78°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.99× 91°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 65 C+ — · 12 0.259 90.6 9.7% 33.3%vs RHP 406 20.8% 14.3% 41.7% 23

2 Wilyer Abreu 55 C +400 COOL 41 0.186 89.7 8.9% 12.9%vs RHP 406 14.2% 14.3% 25.3% 35

3 Andruw Monasterio 52 C +525 COOL 61 0.196 88.8 7.9% 3.5%vs RHP 390 17.6% 8.3% 13.4% 29

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 50 C +750 WARM 75 0.164 86.4 5.5% 14.8%vs RHP 374 12.4% 35.7% 22.7% 42

5 Jarren Duran 46 D +525 COOL 108 0.140 89.4 8.0% 27.3%vs RHP 398 11.8% 0.0% 13.4% 38

6 Caleb Durbin 41 D +750 COOL 144 0.152 84.0 4.0% 20.6%vs RHP 373 8.8% 7.1% 13.4% 39

7 Carlos Narvaez 39 D — COOL 152 0.090 91.4 6.8% 10.7%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 5

8 Masataka Yoshida 39 D +750 COOL 154 0.117 88.5 4.1% 9.3%vs RHP 367 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 32

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 66 C+ +225 · 11 0.246 93.7 10.9% 29.0%vs LHP 406 20.0% 15.4% 30.3% 35

2 Max Muncy ✶ 65 C+ — · 13 0.244 90.3 9.9% 28.6%vs LHP 411 19.0% 27.3% 43.9% 24

3 Dalton Rushing 58 C +475 WARM 31 0.224 89.5 9.4% 9.1%vs LHP 400 11.1% 18.2% 31.5% 16

4 Andy Pages 52 C +390 COOL 60 0.191 89.1 7.5% 16.1%vs LHP 390 14.0% 7.7% 14.9% 37

5 Freddie Freeman 51 C +425 COOL 63 0.184 90.1 8.3% 15.4%vs LHP 398 12.3% 0.0% 16.8% 40

6 Mookie Betts 49 D +475 · 81 0.176 90.6 7.6% 6.1%vs LHP 389 10.3% 7.7% 12.9% 37

7 Kyle Tucker 45 D +500 WARM 119 0.134 88.9 6.9% 7.7%vs LHP 397 6.8% 16.7% 14.2% 31

8 Teoscar Hernandez 43 D +425 COOL 128 0.149 89.1 8.1% 12.5%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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