TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ ATL

Playable air · 1.06×

WSH @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 8 mph in 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:15p

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best window is early — 7:15p at +1

Best of game Matt Olson conv 33 · vs Mikolas ⟷ Cj Abrams conv 51 · vs López → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Miles Mikolas RHP · WSH

leak 89

2.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +290 B ●●●●●

2 Drake Baldwin +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Ozzie Albies +425 C ●●●●○

FADE Reynaldo López RHP · ATL

leak 73

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cj Abrams +400 B ●●●●●

2 Dylan Crews +500 C ●●●●○

3 James Wood +320 B ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: Match 36.2% · 14D pace 66.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams ✶ vs López Edge +400 0.266 · 89.7 · 9.3% 66.7% 36.2% F B O B 70

· ATL Matt Olson vs Mikolas Edge +290 0.259 · 92.7 · 11.2% 26.7% 39.3% F B O B 75

· WSH Dylan Crews vs López +500 0.164 · 90.7 · 8.8% 33.3% 21.4% F B O C 57

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Mikolas Edge +390 0.201 · 91.5 · 11.5% 20.0% 31.9% F B O C+ 68

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Mikolas Edge +425 0.176 · 86.9 · 6.1% 26.7% 22.9% F B O C 57

· WSH James Wood COOL vs López Edge +320 0.278 · 95.2 · 12.8% 7.7% 24.7% F B O B 73

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Mikolas Edge +525 0.137 · 90.3 · 7.7% 12.5% 18.3% F B O C 53

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Mikolas +400 0.132 · 90.7 · 9.7% 7.1% 19.2% F B O C 54

· WSH Daylen Lile vs López Edge +525 0.170 · 88.1 · 8.0% 9.1% 14.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Mikolas Edge — 0.125 · 87.8 · 6.9% 16.7% 11.5% F B O D 49

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs López — 0.153 · 88.6 · 7.1% 10.0% 11.9% F B O D 48

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs López Edge +625 0.179 · 88.3 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 48

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Mikolas +850 0.138 · 86.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 45

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs López Edge — 0.042 · 84.5 · 1.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.6% BRK 41.7% OFF 3.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

James Wood L Edge

20.9% 26.9% 11.8% 21.5% B 73 +320

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.7% 9.6% 13.6% 11.3% B 70 +400

Neutral · 2

Dylan Crews R

7.3% 23.3% 5.9% 10.2% C 57 +500

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.3% 10.2% 3.9% 7.8% C 51 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jacob Young R

8.5% 4.2% 3.3% 6.6% D 48 —

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.7% 3.4% 2.6% 5.0% D 48 +625

209

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads López's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.1% ← leak BRK 42.5% OFF 7.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

16.3% 11.0% 11.1% 14.1% B 75 +290

Neutral · 4

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.3% 20.3% 5.1% 15.0% C+ 68 +390

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.1% 1.0% 3.1% 4.4% C 57 +425

Austin Riley R

12.7% 10.8% 2.9% 10.8% C 54 +400

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

6.8% 6.5% 6.9% 6.7% C 53 +525

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.1% 6.0% 2.6% 5.4% D 49 —

115

Mauricio Dubon R

3.2% 6.3% 5.3% 4.4% D 45 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.1% usage) carries Mikolas's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Wood Abrams Crews Olson Baldwin Albies Riley Yastrzemski Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Mikolas fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Cj Abrams +400 · 70

Matt Olson +290 · 75

Dylan Crews +500 · 57

Drake Baldwin +390 · 68

Ozzie Albies +425 · 57

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 8 mph in 77°F open

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

7:15p · peak

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

8:15p

↑

6 mph · in

70°F

9:15p

↑

6 mph · in

69°F

10:15p

-1

↑

6 mph · in

67°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 77°F, wind 8 mph S (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reynaldo López · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 73 B +320 COOL 2 0.278 95.2 12.8% 36.8%vs RHP 413 27.2% 7.7% 24.7% 37

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 70 B +400 WARM 5 0.266 89.7 9.3% 31.0%vs RHP 396 42.9% 66.7% 36.2% 37

3 Dylan Crews 57 C +500 WARM 34 0.164 90.7 8.8% 16.1%vs RHP 406 19.6% 33.3% 21.4% 27

4 Daylen Lile 51 C +525 WARM 64 0.170 88.1 8.0% 11.0%vs RHP 402 9.3% 9.1% 14.3% 33

5 Jacob Young 48 D — COOL 91 0.153 88.6 7.1% 16.7%vs RHP 396 8.1% 10.0% 11.9% 25

6 Keibert Ruiz 48 D +625 COOL 92 0.179 88.3 6.2% 8.2%vs RHP 377 10.6% 0.0% 11.8% 26

7 Nasim Nunez 28 D — COOL 209 0.042 84.5 1.8% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 39

vs Miles Mikolas · RHP 2.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 75 B +290 · 1 0.259 92.7 11.2% 32.3%vs RHP 408 22.5% 26.7% 39.3% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 68 C+ +390 · 8 0.201 91.5 11.5% 30.9%vs RHP 403 18.9% 20.0% 31.9% 45

3 Ozzie Albies 57 C +425 · 35 0.176 86.9 6.1% 13.7%vs RHP 386 14.4% 26.7% 22.9% 47

4 Austin Riley 54 C +400 HOT 48 0.132 90.7 9.7% 17.5%vs RHP 405 8.3% 7.1% 19.2% 23

5 Mike Yastrzemski 53 C +525 COOL 57 0.137 90.3 7.7% 15.7%vs RHP 390 8.7% 12.5% 18.3% 10

6 Dominic Smith 49 D — COOL 84 0.125 87.8 6.9% 14.3%vs RHP 390 7.5% 16.7% 11.5% 18

7 Mauricio Dubon 45 D +850 WARM 115 0.138 86.6 6.2% 12.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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