TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.47×

MIL @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 8 mph out 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:38p

+8 ↑

7:38p

+6 ↑

8:38p

+5 ↑

9:38p

+5 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +9

Best of game Brice Turang conv 18 · vs Soriano ⟷ Jo Adell conv 23 · vs Gasser → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 92

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brice Turang +750 D ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers +475 C ●●○○○

3 Christian Yelich +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 89

1.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jo Adell +350 D ●●●●○

2 Vaughn Grissom +625 D ●●○○○

3 Jorge Soler +330 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 9.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ COOL vs Soriano Edge +475 0.224 · 92.8 · 10.4% 9.1% 18.6% F B O C 55

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Gasser Edge +305 0.215 · 90.2 · 10.9% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 54

· LAA Zach Neto vs Gasser Edge +320 0.201 · 89.3 · 9.2% 0.0% 13.8% F B O C 51

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Soriano +525 0.187 · 91.8 · 10.0% 0.0% 10.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· LAA Jo Adell vs Gasser Edge +350 0.159 · 89.7 · 7.6% 25.0% 21.8% F B O D 48

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Soriano Edge +750 0.189 · 90.6 · 8.1% 18.2% 18.5% F B O D 48

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Gasser Edge +625 0.152 · 89.0 · 7.0% 16.7% 8.6% F B O D 43

· LAA Jorge Soler vs Gasser Edge +330 0.171 · 88.7 · 8.6% 9.1% 11.3% F B O D 47

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Soriano Edge +850 0.149 · 89.0 · 8.5% 10.0% 10.0% F B O D 41

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Soriano — 0.120 · 88.1 · 5.7% 10.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Soriano Edge +625 0.167 · 92.5 · 10.4% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 45

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.131 · 87.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Gasser — 0.148 · 89.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Gasser +950 0.112 · 87.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· MIL William Contreras vs Soriano +625 0.122 · 89.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.7% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.3% 11.9% 13.3% 13.5% C 55 +475

Jackson Chourio R

12.1% 14.9% 3.4% 11.8% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L Edge

9.9% 9.5% 1.9% 8.3% D 48 +750

120

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.9% 12.1% 8.0% 13.8% D 45 +625

146

Christian Yelich L Edge

7.3% 11.8% 13.0% 9.1% D 41 +850

170

William Contreras R

7.9% 8.2% 0.0% 7.3% D 37 +625

181

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 6.3% 0.0% 4.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.7% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.0% ← leak BRK 26.1% OFF 8.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mike Trout R Edge

16.5% 27.0% 12.5% 17.8% C 54 +305

Zach Neto R Edge

15.2% 8.6% 11.1% 12.7% C 51 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jo Adell R Edge

8.1% 8.8% 7.9% 8.3% D 48 +350

101

Jorge Soler R Edge

13.7% 10.0% 0.0% 11.1% D 47 +330

136

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

9.0% 7.4% 0.0% 7.1% D 43 +625

142

Josh Lowe L

13.7% 2.8% 7.4% 9.6% D 42 —

156

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.5% 7.4% 12.0% 7.5% D 39 —

191

Nolan Schanuel L

3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 2.5% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.0% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Turang Adell

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jo Adell +350 · 48

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 8 mph out 90°F open

↑

8 mph · out

87°F

6:38p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

83°F

7:38p

↑

6 mph · out

81°F

8:38p

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

9:38p

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 90°F, wind 8 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 55 C +475 COOL 44 0.224 92.8 10.4% 34.6%vs RHP 401 20.0% 9.1% 18.6% 27

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C +525 COOL 76 0.187 91.8 10.0% 17.2%vs RHP 402 14.5% 0.0% 10.2% 38

3 Brice Turang 48 D +750 COOL 93 0.189 90.6 8.1% 27.3%vs RHP 408 12.4% 18.2% 18.5% 32

4 Garrett Mitchell 45 D +625 · 120 0.167 92.5 10.4% 25.8%vs RHP 415 8.0% 0.0% 12.7% 28

5 Christian Yelich 41 D +850 WARM 146 0.149 89.0 8.5% 15.2%vs RHP 404 7.0% 10.0% 10.0% 34

6 William Contreras 37 D +625 WARM 170 0.122 89.7 7.6% 17.7%vs RHP 419 9.2% 0.0% 7.2% 34

7 Joey Ortiz 35 D — WARM 181 0.120 88.1 5.7% 12.5%vs RHP 395 5.6% 10.0% 8.0% 17

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.57 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 54 C +305 COOL 49 0.215 90.2 10.9% 22.2%vs LHP 409 15.9% 0.0% 15.4% 31

2 Zach Neto 51 C +320 · 65 0.201 89.3 9.2% 18.5%vs LHP 402 16.5% 0.0% 13.8% 31

3 Jo Adell 48 D +350 WARM 87 0.159 89.7 7.6% 34.5%vs LHP 410 12.6% 25.0% 21.8% 26

4 Jorge Soler 47 D +330 WARM 101 0.171 88.7 8.6% 15.8%vs LHP 400 12.9% 9.1% 11.3% 22

5 Vaughn Grissom 43 D +625 COOL 136 0.152 89.0 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 390 11.4% 16.7% 8.6% 36

6 Josh Lowe 42 D — COOL 142 0.148 89.0 8.0% 13.1% 396 10.3% 0.0% 8.6% 11

7 Oswald Peraza 39 D — COOL 156 0.131 87.3 7.0% 26.3%vs LHP 386 6.3% 0.0% 9.8% 8

8 Nolan Schanuel 33 D +950 · 191 0.112 87.4 4.1% 16.7%vs LHP 372 6.6% 0.0% 8.0% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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