TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.38×

TEX @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph cross 96°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:10p

+7 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+9 ↑

9:10p

+10 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +10

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 42 · vs Blanco ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 36 · vs deGrom → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Ronel Blanco RHP

leak 97

3.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.33 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +350 B ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Wyatt Langford +390 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 87

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +575 C ●●●●●

2 Christian Walker +390 C ●●●●○

3 Isaac Paredes +425 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 38.7% · 14D pace 44.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Joc Pederson ✶ vs Blanco Edge +350 0.251 · 91.9 · 11.8% 44.4% 38.7% F B O B 71

· HOU Jeremy Peña HOT vs deGrom +575 0.190 · 88.3 · 7.0% 45.5% 25.9% F B O C 52

· — Jake Burger vs Blanco +390 0.189 · 90.0 · 11.8% 25.0% 29.0% F B O C+ 63

· — Wyatt Langford vs Blanco +390 0.229 · 89.5 · 10.2% 23.1% 30.2% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Christian Walker vs deGrom +390 0.218 · 89.3 · 9.3% 22.2% 28.9% F B O C 57

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs deGrom Edge +245 0.320 · 94.6 · 12.8% 0.0% 33.6% F B O C+ 64

· — Ezequiel Duran vs Blanco +700 0.178 · 88.6 · 8.9% 15.4% 17.2% F B O C 54

· — Corey Seager HOT vs Blanco Edge +290 0.192 · 91.1 · 13.8% 0.0% 21.6% F B O C+ 61

· — Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Blanco Edge +370 0.163 · 92.4 · 11.9% 7.7% 12.3% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs deGrom +425 0.164 · 86.5 · 7.3% 25.0% 16.0% F B O D 46

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs deGrom +700 0.155 · 87.9 · 7.0% 20.0% 16.5% F B O D 45

· — Evan Carter COOL vs Blanco Edge +750 0.147 · 88.0 · 8.5% 11.1% 11.5% F B O D 49

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs deGrom +525 0.156 · 89.4 · 10.1% 11.1% 11.1% F B O D 47

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs deGrom +625 0.155 · 85.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 38

· — Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Blanco Edge — 0.043 · 86.6 · 2.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 33

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs deGrom — 0.114 · 86.0 · 3.4% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.2% ← leak BRK 42.6% OFF 13.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.3% 24.1% 9.4% 18.5% C+ 64 +245

Christian Walker R

8.6% 10.8% 13.3% 9.8% C 57 +390

Jeremy Peña R

4.2% 6.6% 13.3% 5.6% C 52 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Cam Smith R

9.0% 15.8% 19.2% 11.5% D 47 +525

113

Isaac Paredes R

7.8% 3.8% 2.3% 6.0% D 46 +425

122

Yainer Diaz R

7.1% 1.9% 7.4% 5.5% D 45 +700

160

Jose Altuve R

6.0% 5.8% 0.0% 5.4% D 38 +625

197

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.2% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 39.1% FB 31.6% OFF 29.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

11.9% 14.2% 4.1% 11.2% B 71 +350

Neutral · 5

Wyatt Langford R

12.2% 5.7% 16.7% 8.7% C+ 63 +390

Jake Burger R

12.8% 10.1% 10.0% 11.0% C+ 63 +390

Corey Seager L Edge

16.1% 15.3% 14.8% 15.4% C+ 61 +290

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

17.5% 9.7% 9.3% 11.7% C 55 +370

Ezequiel Duran R

6.8% 8.0% 0.0% 6.5% C 54 +700

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Evan Carter L Edge

5.1% 7.9% 0.0% 5.9% D 49 +750

188

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.6% D 33 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Blanco's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Peña Paredes Diaz Pederson Langford Burger Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Blanco fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Joc Pederson +350 · 71

Jeremy Peña +575 · 52

Jake Burger +390 · 63

Wyatt Langford +390 · 63

Christian Walker +390 · 57

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph cross 96°F retractable

↑

9 mph · slight_out

97°F

6:10p

↑

10 mph · slight_out

96°F

7:10p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

93°F

8:10p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

90°F

9:10p

+10

↑

13 mph · slight_out

87°F

10:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.38× 96°F, wind 5 mph W (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 64 C+ +245 · 14 0.320 94.6 12.8% 28.0%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 33.6% 32

2 Christian Walker 57 C +390 · 38 0.218 89.3 9.3% 27.0%vs RHP 389 19.4% 22.2% 28.9% 20

3 Jeremy Peña 52 C +575 HOT 58 0.190 88.3 7.0% 29.7%vs RHP 387 15.4% 45.5% 25.9% 34

4 Cam Smith 47 D +525 COOL 96 0.156 89.4 10.1% 18.4%vs RHP 411 12.2% 11.1% 11.1% 21

5 Isaac Paredes 46 D +425 · 113 0.164 86.5 7.3% 17.7%vs RHP 376 12.4% 25.0% 16.0% 44

6 Yainer Diaz 45 D +700 WARM 122 0.155 87.9 7.0% 24.1%vs RHP 396 11.4% 20.0% 16.5% 29

7 Jose Altuve 38 D +625 COOL 160 0.155 85.7 6.9% 22.2%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 39

8 Christian Vazquez 31 D — COOL 197 0.114 86.0 3.4% 13.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 12

vs Ronel Blanco · RHP 3.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +3.33 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 71 B +350 WARM 4 0.251 91.9 11.8% 31.1%vs RHP 394 22.7% 44.4% 38.7% 27

2 Wyatt Langford 63 C+ +390 WARM 18 0.229 89.5 10.2% 21.1%vs RHP 401 17.1% 23.1% 30.2% 40

3 Jake Burger 63 C+ +390 WARM 19 0.189 90.0 11.8% 25.0%vs RHP 398 16.2% 25.0% 29.0% 33

4 Corey Seager 61 C+ +290 HOT 24 0.192 91.1 13.8% 27.3%vs RHP 394 17.3% 0.0% 21.6% 2

5 Brandon Nimmo 55 C +370 COOL 43 0.163 92.4 11.9% 12.7%vs RHP 404 9.1% 7.7% 12.3% 34

6 Ezequiel Duran 54 C +700 WARM 46 0.178 88.6 8.9% 22.7%vs RHP 392 13.4% 15.4% 17.2% 37

7 Evan Carter 49 D +750 COOL 83 0.147 88.0 8.5% 15.1%vs RHP 374 9.4% 11.1% 11.5% 26

8 Alejandro Osuna 33 D — COOL 188 0.043 86.6 2.7% 5.3%vs RHP 364 2.5% 0.0% 8.8% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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