TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ COL

Coors Field is live · 2.01×

KC @ COL

Coors Field · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.26× Wind 12 mph slight_out 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

6:10p

+15 ↑

7:10p

+16 ↑

8:10p

+17 ↑

9:10p

+17 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 9:10p window peaks +17

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 23 · vs Feltner ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 32 · vs Avila → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 89

1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +265 C+ ●●●○○

2 Carter Jensen +305 C+ ●●●○○

3 Lane Thomas +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Luinder Avila RHP · KC

leak 84

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +245 B ●●●●●

2 Willi Castro +500 C ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros +575 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 43.8% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Avila +245 0.291 · 90.7 · 10.5% 20.0% 43.8% F B O B 72

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Feltner Edge +265 0.201 · 92.9 · 12.7% 20.0% 25.2% F B O C+ 67

· COL Willi Castro vs Avila Edge +500 0.144 · 88.0 · 7.2% 22.2% 17.2% F B O C 50

· KC Carter Jensen vs Feltner Edge +305 0.184 · 90.8 · 10.1% 16.7% 22.0% F B O C+ 62

· KC Lane Thomas vs Feltner +425 0.164 · 89.5 · 8.4% 16.7% 19.8% F B O C 57

· KC Salvador Perez vs Feltner +290 0.155 · 89.1 · 10.6% 0.0% 23.7% F B O C 54

· COL Kyle Karros vs Avila +575 0.162 · 89.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 14.6% F B O C 50

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Feltner Edge +425 0.158 · 90.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 12.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Feltner Edge +575 0.122 · 88.2 · 7.8% 8.3% 10.0% F B O D 49

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Avila Edge +750 0.198 · 84.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 49

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Avila Edge +575 0.172 · 83.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 46

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Avila +525 0.124 · 87.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 44

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Avila — 0.071 · 87.5 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 35

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Avila Edge — 0.087 · 90.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 41

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Avila Edge +750 0.109 · 89.7 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 43.6% ← leak FB 40.7% OFF 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Jac Caglianone L Edge

17.2% 14.7% 11.3% 14.9% C+ 67 +265

Carter Jensen L Edge

8.8% 11.2% 6.7% 9.5% C+ 62 +305

Lane Thomas R

2.6% 7.5% 5.3% 6.4% C 57 +425

Salvador Perez R

6.5% 14.1% 8.9% 10.3% C 54 +290

Michael Massey L Edge

5.9% 7.5% 2.3% 6.2% C 51 +425

Long shots · 1 — below the fade line

Isaac Collins S Edge

11.1% 5.9% 0.0% 5.6% D 49 +575

Read the columns: the breaking family (43.6% usage) carries Feltner's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.4% BRK 36.7% OFF 10.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

20.0% 15.7% 7.1% 16.9% B 72 +245

Neutral · 2

Willi Castro S Edge

9.4% 6.5% 6.4% 8.0% C 50 +500

Kyle Karros R

8.0% 5.0% 14.3% 7.8% C 50 +575

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.0% 1.6% 8.3% 5.2% D 49 +750

106

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.1% 2.1% 5.9% 4.8% D 46 +575

123

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.1% 7.4% 4.3% 6.4% D 44 +525

147

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.4% 11.8% 5.9% 6.9% D 41 —

163

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 2.0% D 38 +750

180

Tyler Freeman R

2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 35 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Avila's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Jensen Thomas Goodman Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Feltner fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman +245 · 72

Jac Caglianone +265 · 67

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.26× Wind 12 mph slight_out 90°F open

+13

↑

11 mph · slight_out

92°F

6:10p

+15

↑

11 mph · slight_out

87°F

7:10p

+16

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

8:10p

+17

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

9:10p · peak

+17

↑

9 mph · out

78°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 2.01× 90°F, wind 12 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 1.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.08 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 67 C+ +265 · 9 0.201 92.9 12.7% 26.8%vs RHP 417 13.5% 20.0% 25.2% 31

2 Carter Jensen 62 C+ +305 WARM 23 0.184 90.8 10.1% 16.9%vs RHP 394 15.3% 16.7% 22.0% 29

3 Lane Thomas 57 C +425 · 36 0.164 89.5 8.4% 20.7%vs RHP 409 15.5% 16.7% 19.8% 31

4 Salvador Perez 54 C +290 WARM 47 0.155 89.1 10.6% 19.1%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 34

5 Michael Massey 51 C +425 COOL 67 0.158 90.1 8.2% 8.8%vs RHP 398 5.6% 0.0% 12.0% 36

6 Isaac Collins 49 D +575 COOL 85 0.122 88.2 7.8% 8.9%vs RHP 394 6.5% 8.3% 10.0% 32

vs Luinder Avila · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 72 B +245 COOL 3 0.291 90.7 10.5% 40.7%vs RHP 411 24.0% 20.0% 43.8% 18

2 Willi Castro 50 C +500 WARM 71 0.144 88.0 7.2% 16.1%vs RHP 412 9.9% 22.2% 17.2% 24

3 Kyle Karros 50 C +575 · 74 0.162 89.6 7.3% 23.5%vs RHP 417 10.6% 0.0% 14.6% 20

4 Jake Mccarthy 49 D +750 COOL 78 0.198 84.9 5.8% 16.7%vs RHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 14.1% 38

5 Tj Rumfield 46 D +575 · 106 0.172 83.8 5.8% 17.1%vs RHP 410 7.1% 0.0% 12.3% 31

6 Ezequiel Tovar 44 D +525 COOL 123 0.124 87.3 6.5% 16.4%vs RHP 410 7.3% 0.0% 10.8% 16

7 Edouard Julien 41 D — COOL 147 0.087 90.8 6.7% 12.1%vs RHP 400 3.7% 0.0% 8.8% 13

8 Troy Johnston 38 D +750 COOL 163 0.109 89.7 3.6% 7.3%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 8.1% 25

9 Tyler Freeman 35 D — COOL 180 0.071 87.5 3.0% 3.9%vs RHP 369 2.0% 0.0% 8.9% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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