TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park is live · 1.24×

MIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 4:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 10 mph out 67°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+9 ↑

1:10p

+8 ↑

2:10p

+9 ↑

3:10p

+6 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +9

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 22 · vs Gilbert ⟷ Dominic Canzone conv 23 · vs Prielipp → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Logan Gilbert RHP · SEA

leak 81

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens +330 C+ ●●●○○

2 Brooks Lee +625 D ●●○○○

3 Trevor Larnach +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 5

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dominic Canzone +475 C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Young +625 D ●●●○○

3 Cal Raleigh +330 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: Match 29.8% · 14D pace 16.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Prielipp +475 0.265 · 92.3 · 11.3% 16.7% 29.8% F B O C+ 62

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Gilbert Edge +330 0.249 · 92.6 · 11.0% 16.7% 26.5% F B O C+ 60

· SEA Luke Raley vs Prielipp — 0.214 · 90.8 · 11.6% 0.0% 18.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SEA Cole Young vs Prielipp +625 0.146 · 88.7 · 6.7% 23.1% 10.2% F B O D 43

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Prielipp Edge +330 0.141 · 88.4 · 10.0% 16.7% 16.0% F B O D 47

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Gilbert Edge +625 0.173 · 87.6 · 6.1% 16.7% 13.1% F B O D 44

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Prielipp Edge +370 0.163 · 90.0 · 8.7% 15.4% 12.6% F B O D 48

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Prielipp Edge +425 0.167 · 91.0 · 8.3% 15.4% 11.9% F B O D 47

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Gilbert Edge +500 0.159 · 87.2 · 8.5% 14.3% 10.2% F B O D 43

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Gilbert +370 0.167 · 89.5 · 10.7% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 48

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Gilbert Edge +475 0.164 · 89.9 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 45

· SEA Colt Emerson COOL vs Prielipp +750 0.156 · 86.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Gilbert Edge +700 0.118 · 89.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 36

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Gilbert +850 0.082 · 84.8 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Gilbert — 0.079 · 87.2 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 29

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Prielipp +700 0.096 · 87.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.7% ← leak BRK 31.6% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 21.3% 11.4% 12.4% C+ 60 +330

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

13.9% 8.8% 8.7% 11.8% D 48 +370

121

Josh Bell S Edge

9.9% 13.6% 6.0% 9.8% D 45 +475

127

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.2% 0.0% 1.2% 3.8% D 44 +625

132

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.3% 8.3% 3.0% 7.5% D 43 +500

174

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 12.5% 6.5% 6.8% D 36 +700

203

Luke Keaschall R

3.6% 2.4% 0.0% 2.8% D 30 +850

207

Austin Martin R

2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.7% usage) carries Gilbert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 46.5% FB 41.5% OFF 11.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L

16.2% 17.5% 8.6% 14.8% C+ 62 +475

Luke Raley L

12.8% 18.8% 10.0% 15.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

8.6% 9.1% 7.7% 8.8% D 48 +370

Cal Raleigh S Edge

13.6% 10.4% 12.8% 11.7% D 47 +330

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.1% 8.7% 6.2% 8.1% D 47 +425

138

Cole Young L

9.6% 4.3% 2.0% 5.2% D 43 +625

150

Colt Emerson L

5.3% 4.9% 4.5% 5.0% D 40 +750

187

Josh Naylor L

7.7% 4.1% 1.9% 4.6% D 34 +700

Read the columns: no single family leads Prielipp's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee Canzone Rodríguez Raleigh Arozarena Young

Legend

attack side — vs Gilbert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.03× Wind 10 mph out 67°F retractable

↑

9 mph · out

67°F

1:10p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

69°F

2:10p

↑

8 mph · out

70°F

3:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

70°F

4:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

70°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.24× 67°F, wind 10 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Gilbert · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 60 C+ +330 · 27 0.249 92.6 11.0% 19.4%vs RHP 390 18.2% 16.7% 26.5% 39

2 Royce Lewis 48 D +370 WARM 95 0.167 89.5 10.7% 17.0%vs RHP 396 16.4% 9.1% 10.5% 34

3 Josh Bell 45 D +475 COOL 121 0.164 89.9 9.8% 19.6%vs RHP 404 9.5% 0.0% 11.4% 32

4 Brooks Lee 44 D +625 COOL 127 0.173 87.6 6.1% 19.1%vs RHP 370 15.0% 16.7% 13.1% 37

5 Trevor Larnach 43 D +500 · 132 0.159 87.2 8.5% 13.5%vs RHP 400 8.1% 14.3% 10.2% 24

6 Victor Caratini 36 D +700 COOL 174 0.118 89.8 8.1% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 27

7 Luke Keaschall 30 D +850 WARM 203 0.082 84.8 5.2% 7.1%vs RHP 370 4.3% 0.0% 7.1% 28

8 Austin Martin 29 D — COOL 207 0.079 87.2 4.4% 4.0%vs RHP 392 1.7% 0.0% 6.8% 18

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 62 C+ +475 COOL 21 0.265 92.3 11.3% 44.4%vs LHP 403 17.4% 16.7% 29.8% 34

2 Luke Raley 53 C — WARM 55 0.214 90.8 11.6% 24.6% 385 12.3% 0.0% 18.6% 14

3 Julio Rodríguez 48 D +370 · 90 0.163 90.0 8.7% 26.5%vs LHP 409 16.0% 15.4% 12.6% 43

4 Cal Raleigh 47 D +330 HOT 97 0.141 88.4 10.0% 17.6%vs LHP 393 12.8% 16.7% 16.0% 25

5 Randy Arozarena 47 D +425 · 99 0.167 91.0 8.3% 14.3%vs LHP 394 12.1% 15.4% 11.9% 38

6 Cole Young 43 D +625 WARM 138 0.146 88.7 6.7% 13.8%vs LHP 388 12.3% 23.1% 10.2% 46

7 Colt Emerson 40 D +750 COOL 150 0.156 86.1 6.6% 25.0%vs LHP 369 9.3% 0.0% 9.5% 30

8 Josh Naylor 34 D +700 COOL 187 0.096 87.6 6.3% 4.8%vs LHP 390 6.7% 0.0% 6.0% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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