TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.53×

PHI @ BAL

Camden Yards · 7:05p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.28× Wind 8 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+15 ↑

7:05p

+14 ↑

8:05p

+14 ↑

9:05p

+14 ↑

10:05p

+15 ↑

11:05p

the 7:05p window peaks +15

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 33 · vs Sánchez ⟷ Trea Turner conv 27 · vs Baz → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 87

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +425 C+ ●●●●●

2 Pete Alonso +390 C ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +850 C ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 13

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trea Turner +500 C ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +320 C+ ●●●●○

3 Kyle Schwarber +192 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 10.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Sánchez Edge +425 0.216 · 92.6 · 9.8% 25.0% 40.2% F B O C+ 60

· PHI Trea Turner vs Baz +500 0.149 · 88.9 · 6.8% 33.3% 19.7% F B O C 51

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Baz Edge +320 0.239 · 90.2 · 9.1% 16.7% 29.4% F B O C+ 62

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Sánchez Edge +390 0.212 · 93.9 · 9.8% 15.4% 19.2% F B O C 59

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Baz Edge +192 0.293 · 93.3 · 11.2% 10.0% 22.6% F B O C+ 69

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Baz Edge +500 0.175 · 89.5 · 8.0% 10.0% 13.6% F B O C 51

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Sánchez +850 0.176 · 89.4 · 7.6% 7.7% 14.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Baz +625 0.141 · 90.7 · 6.1% 16.7% 11.2% F B O D 46

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Sánchez Edge +950 0.122 · 87.4 · 6.1% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 39

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Baz Edge +575 0.158 · 89.2 · 7.1% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 46

· BAL Taylor Ward COOL vs Sánchez Edge +625 0.101 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 38

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Baz +750 0.130 · — · 5.6% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 37

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Sánchez — 0.122 · 86.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Baz Edge +950 0.082 · 86.5 · 2.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 33.3% OFF 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

17.7% 14.9% 26.9% 17.8% C+ 69 +192

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.6% 14.2% 6.8% 11.6% C+ 62 +320

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.2% 14.1% 2.6% 9.1% C 51 +500

Trea Turner R

8.4% 4.8% 2.8% 6.6% C 51 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

109

Alec Bohm R

5.0% 4.4% 9.1% 5.2% D 46 +625

111

Bryson Stott L Edge

9.3% 4.7% 5.6% 7.2% D 46 +575

166

J.T. Realmuto R

4.4% 3.9% 6.2% 4.4% D 37 +750

195

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.6% ← leak OFF 38.1% BRK 19.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Coby Mayo R Edge

10.8% 19.0% 10.7% 11.9% C+ 60 +425

Pete Alonso R Edge

13.5% 15.2% 8.0% 12.1% C 59 +390

Gunnar Henderson L

7.7% 7.5% 6.2% 7.2% C 50 +850

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

124

Colton Cowser L

14.5% 2.4% 10.8% 10.2% D 44 —

155

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.8% 0.0% 8.7% 4.7% D 39 +950

161

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.1% 2.9% 1.2% 5.6% D 38 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.6% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Bohm Mayo Alonso

Legend

attack side — vs Sánchez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Coby Mayo +425 · 60

Trea Turner +500 · 51

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.28× Wind 8 mph slight_out 83°F open

+15

↑

9 mph · slight_out

83°F

7:05p · peak

+14

↑

8 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:05p

+14

↑

9 mph · slight_out

79°F

9:05p

+14

↑

10 mph · slight_out

78°F

10:05p

+15

↑

11 mph · slight_out

77°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.53× 83°F, wind 8 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +192 COOL 7 0.293 93.3 11.2% 41.2%vs RHP 403 24.0% 10.0% 22.6% 21

2 Bryce Harper 62 C+ +320 · 20 0.239 90.2 9.1% 35.9%vs RHP 401 19.0% 16.7% 29.4% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 51 C +500 · 66 0.175 89.5 8.0% 22.8%vs RHP 393 13.1% 10.0% 13.6% 30

4 Trea Turner 51 C +500 WARM 69 0.149 88.9 6.8% 20.3%vs RHP 392 14.6% 33.3% 19.7% 37

5 Alec Bohm 46 D +625 WARM 109 0.141 90.7 6.1% 18.4%vs RHP 396 11.8% 16.7% 11.2% 39

6 Bryson Stott 46 D +575 · 111 0.158 89.2 7.1% 9.7%vs RHP 389 8.0% 8.3% 10.3% 29

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +750 WARM 166 0.130 — 5.6% 18.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 26

8 Justin Crawford 32 D +950 COOL 195 0.082 86.5 2.5% 5.6%vs RHP 382 2.6% 0.0% 8.0% 24

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.22 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Coby Mayo 60 C+ +425 HOT 26 0.216 92.6 9.8% 41.7%vs LHP 405 15.9% 25.0% 40.2% 15

2 Pete Alonso 59 C +390 · 30 0.212 93.9 9.8% 16.1%vs LHP 401 19.3% 15.4% 19.2% 38

3 Gunnar Henderson 50 C +850 · 73 0.176 89.4 7.6% 33.3%vs LHP 390 15.9% 7.7% 14.6% 34

4 Colton Cowser 44 D — COOL 124 0.122 86.8 9.0% 20.0%vs LHP 417 13.0% 0.0% 9.5% 11

5 Leody Taveras 39 D +950 COOL 155 0.122 87.4 6.1% 7.7%vs LHP 419 4.0% 9.1% 9.8% 27

6 Taylor Ward 38 D +625 COOL 161 0.101 89.2 6.7% 16.7%vs LHP 388 6.4% 0.0% 11.2% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

11 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.