TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.41×

MIA @ NYM

Citi Field · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 14 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

4:10p

+12 ↑

5:10p

+12 ↑

6:10p

+11 ↑

7:10p

+11 ↑

8:10p

best window is early — 4:10p at +12

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 20 · vs Phillips ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Thornton → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 80

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +370 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +575 D ●●●○○

3 Brett Baty — D ●○○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 25

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +400 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +265 D ●●○○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: Match 19.2% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Thornton +400 0.221 · 92.0 · 11.0% 30.8% 19.2% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Phillips Edge +370 0.182 · 91.6 · 8.8% 21.4% 17.9% F B O D 48

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Phillips +575 0.141 · 86.6 · 7.7% 20.0% 13.5% F B O D 42

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Thornton Edge +265 0.242 · 92.2 · 11.4% 0.0% 27.4% F B O D 49

· NYM Brett Baty vs Phillips Edge — 0.104 · 89.6 · 8.1% 8.3% 9.4% F B O D 37

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Thornton — 0.101 · 86.8 · 6.1% 9.1% 6.8% F B O D 31

· MIA Liam Hicks vs Thornton +850 0.154 · 85.2 · 6.1% 7.7% 7.2% F B O D 37

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Phillips +370 0.186 · 90.1 · 11.2% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 45

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Phillips Edge +625 0.143 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· NYM Carson Benge vs Phillips Edge +575 0.130 · 89.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 38

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Thornton Edge +525 0.160 · 89.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 38

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Thornton Edge +950 0.109 · 87.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 30

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Phillips +525 0.111 · 89.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 35

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Thornton Edge +850 0.126 · 86.8 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.6% BRK 31.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kyle Stowers L

11.5% 17.3% 12.3% C 54 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

12.5% 13.0% 13.2% D 49 +265

165

Otto Lopez R Edge

9.9% 3.8% 6.5% D 38 +525

171

Liam Hicks L

3.2% 5.7% 3.9% D 37 +850

200

Jakob Marsee L

3.2% 2.3% 3.8% D 31 —

202

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.9% 2.7% 4.1% D 30 +950

208

Javier Sanoja R Edge

1.5% 2.4% 1.6% D 29 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Thornton's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 41.7% FB 34.6% OFF 22.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

4.5% 11.7% 8.3% 9.9% D 48 +370

114

Francisco Alvarez R

16.4% 16.3% 15.8% 16.3% D 45 +370

140

Marcus Semien R

2.4% 10.4% 8.3% 7.6% D 42 +575

164

Carson Benge L Edge

9.7% 7.4% 6.1% 7.8% D 38 +575

167

Brett Baty L Edge

13.3% 7.7% 4.4% 8.2% D 37 —

182

Bo Bichette R

11.8% 4.4% 0.0% 6.3% D 35 +525

184

A.J. Ewing L Edge

6.8% 7.9% 0.0% 6.2% D 34 +625

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Hernández Lindor Semien

Legend

attack side — vs Phillips fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Stowers +400 · 54

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 14 mph out 84°F open

+12

↑

14 mph · out

83°F

4:10p · peak

+12

↑

14 mph · out

83°F

5:10p

+12

↑

14 mph · out

81°F

6:10p

+11

↑

13 mph · out

80°F

7:10p

+11

↑

13 mph · out

78°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 84°F, wind 14 mph S (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 54 C +400 WARM 51 0.221 92.0 11.0% 12.5%vs LHP 395 14.8% 30.8% 19.2% 32

2 Heriberto Hernández 49 D +265 WARM 77 0.242 92.2 11.4% 45.0%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 29

3 Otto Lopez 38 D +525 COOL 165 0.160 89.2 8.0% 8.7%vs LHP 402 7.5% 0.0% 7.3% 41

4 Liam Hicks 37 D +850 · 171 0.154 85.2 6.1% 6.7%vs LHP 378 14.1% 7.7% 7.2% 39

5 Jakob Marsee 31 D — WARM 200 0.101 86.8 6.1% 12.5%vs LHP 380 6.8% 9.1% 6.8% 21

6 Xavier Edwards 30 D +950 COOL 202 0.109 87.1 6.4% 23.5%vs LHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 7.3% 34

7 Javier Sanoja 29 D +850 WARM 208 0.126 86.8 4.0% 12.5%vs LHP 385 4.3% 0.0% 6.3% 39

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 48 D +370 WARM 94 0.182 91.6 8.8% 13.9%vs RHP 395 11.6% 21.4% 17.9% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 45 D +370 · 114 0.186 90.1 11.2% 28.6%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 17

3 Marcus Semien 42 D +575 WARM 140 0.141 86.6 7.7% 18.2%vs RHP 391 11.4% 20.0% 13.5% 24

4 Carson Benge 38 D +575 · 164 0.130 89.1 7.8% 13.1%vs RHP 399 8.3% 0.0% 7.6% 28

5 Brett Baty 37 D — · 167 0.104 89.6 8.1% 11.8%vs RHP 395 5.8% 8.3% 9.4% 16

6 Bo Bichette 35 D +525 COOL 182 0.111 89.3 7.0% 9.7%vs RHP 385 8.4% 0.0% 6.6% 42

7 A.J. Ewing 34 D +625 COOL 184 0.143 — 7.0% 15.2%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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