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STL @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 7 mph out 88°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+6 ↑

3:07p

+7 ↑

4:07p

+7 ↑

5:07p

+6 ↑

6:07p

+5 ↑

7:07p

best window is early — 4:07p at +7

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 9 · vs Gausman ⟷ George Springer conv 13 · vs Proxy → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 92

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +370 C ●○○○○

2 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

3 Alec Burleson +390 D ●○○○○

FADE STL Bullpen Proxy

leak 44

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 George Springer +425 D ●●○○○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +330 C ●●○○○

3 Jesús Sánchez — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: Match 17.8% · 14D pace 8.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Kazuma Okamoto ✶ COOL vs Proxy +330 0.222 · 90.6 · 13.7% 8.3% 17.8% F B O C 59

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Gausman +370 0.215 · 93.2 · 10.4% 0.0% 17.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — George Springer vs Proxy +425 0.169 · 88.6 · 7.9% 16.7% 9.8% F B O D 44

· STL José Fermín vs Gausman — 0.126 · 86.1 · 4.3% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 33

· — Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Proxy — 0.163 · 91.1 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 46

· STL Alec Burleson vs Gausman Edge +390 0.176 · 91.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· — Brandon Valenzuela vs Proxy — 0.165 · 88.2 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Gausman +525 0.137 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 34

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Gausman Edge +475 0.143 · 89.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· STL Masyn Winn vs Gausman +850 0.079 · 88.1 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 28

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Gausman Edge +700 0.130 · 86.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 37

· — Daulton Varsho vs Proxy +525 0.136 · 86.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

· — Nathan Lukes COOL vs Proxy +950 0.109 · 86.4 · 1.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 28

· — Andres Gimenez vs Proxy — 0.122 · 85.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 30

· — Ernie Clement COOL vs Proxy +700 0.128 · 85.1 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.8% ← leak OFF 37.8% BRK 10.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R

14.2% 14.7% 12.1% 13.6% C 52 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

110

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.0% 11.1% 11.7% 11.2% D 46 +390

153

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

9.9% 2.1% 3.6% 7.2% D 39 +475

169

Nathan Church L Edge

8.6% 5.8% 7.2% 7.5% D 37 +700

183

Ivan Herrera R

5.4% 7.1% 5.4% 5.6% D 34 +525

190

José Fermín R

3.0% 0.0% 2.6% 2.4% D 33 —

210

Masyn Winn R

3.6% 3.3% 2.2% 3.1% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.8% usage) carries Gausman's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer

Legend

attack side — vs Gausman fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.97× Wind 7 mph out 88°F retractable

↑

7 mph · out

84°F

3:07p

↑

8 mph · out

86°F

4:07p · peak

↑

8 mph · out

87°F

5:07p

↑

7 mph · out

84°F

6:07p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

81°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.27× 88°F, wind 7 mph SE (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 52 C +370 COOL 59 0.215 93.2 10.4% 30.9%vs RHP 406 17.3% 0.0% 17.1% 39

2 Alec Burleson 46 D +390 · 110 0.176 91.7 9.4% 20.0%vs RHP 407 14.3% 0.0% 10.8% 43

3 Jj Wetherholt 39 D +475 · 153 0.143 89.9 7.5% 17.7%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 8.6% 43

4 Nathan Church 37 D +700 COOL 169 0.130 86.2 7.7% 19.4%vs RHP 388 8.2% 0.0% 8.0% 28

5 Ivan Herrera 34 D +525 · 183 0.137 89.1 6.7% 17.5%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 41

6 José Fermín 33 D — WARM 190 0.126 86.1 4.3% 9.5%vs RHP 388 6.8% 9.1% 8.0% 31

7 Masyn Winn 28 D +850 · 210 0.079 88.1 5.0% 9.8%vs RHP 390 3.8% 0.0% 8.1% 36

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 59 C +330 COOL 40 0.222 90.6 13.7% 22.4% 397 19.1% 8.3% 17.8% 32

2 Jesús Sánchez 46 D — COOL 139 0.163 91.1 10.8% 13.2% 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.5% 2

3 George Springer 44 D +425 · 148 0.169 88.6 7.9% 14.5% 393 12.0% 16.7% 9.8% 40

4 Brandon Valenzuela 42 D — · 159 0.165 88.2 8.5% 17.8% 394 10.3% 0.0% 9.9% 14

5 Daulton Varsho 36 D +525 · 194 0.136 86.2 6.6% 7.8% 386 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% 38

6 Andres Gimenez 30 D — WARM 215 0.122 85.9 3.8% 8.9% 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 29

7 Ernie Clement 30 D +700 COOL 216 0.128 85.1 2.4% 5.7% 375 7.8% 0.0% 6.6% 47

8 Nathan Lukes 28 D +950 COOL 217 0.109 86.4 1.0% 9.8% 378 5.8% 0.0% 7.0% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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