TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TB

Suppressed air · 0.90×

CWS @ TB

Tropicana Field · 4:10p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 27 · vs Rasmussen ⟷ Nick Fortes conv 22 · vs Hicks → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 87

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Colson Montgomery +400 C ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Jordan Hicks RHP

leak 9

0.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.76 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Fortes +950 D ●●●○○

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

3 Junior Caminero +330 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Rasmussen Edge +350 0.303 · 94.1 · 11.6% 23.1% 31.9% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +400 0.232 · 89.1 · 9.2% 16.7% 23.4% F B O C 51

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Rasmussen +350 0.235 · 90.7 · 9.9% 15.4% 12.3% F B O C 51

· — Junior Caminero vs Hicks +330 0.258 · 92.9 · 7.0% 7.7% 15.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· — Nick Fortes vs Hicks +950 0.106 · 85.8 · 3.0% 33.3% 10.7% F B O D 29

· — Cedric Mullins COOL vs Hicks Edge — 0.154 · 88.0 · 3.9% 20.0% 9.6% F B O D 35

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Rasmussen — 0.121 · 88.1 · 5.7% 16.7% 8.1% F B O D 31

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +575 0.172 · 88.6 · 7.6% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +850 0.137 · 87.8 · 6.5% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 34

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +850 0.155 · 87.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

· — Yandy Diaz COOL vs Hicks +500 0.161 · 90.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 31

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Hicks Edge +625 0.153 · 91.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 36

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Rasmussen — 0.036 · 89.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 22

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.042 · 90.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 24

· — Ben Williamson COOL vs Hicks — 0.076 · 87.3 · 2.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 23

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Hicks Edge — 0.108 · 85.8 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 27

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Hicks Edge — 0.061 · 83.8 · — 0.0% 4.5% F B O D 14

· — Taylor Walls COOL vs Hicks Edge — 0.070 · 85.3 · 3.2% 0.0% 4.2% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 80.2% ← leak OFF 12.5% BRK 7.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

21.8% 16.7% 19.3% 20.3% C+ 60 +350

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.3% 14.7% 12.1% 12.6% C 51 +400

Miguel Vargas R

15.6% 12.5% 12.6% 14.4% C 51 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

158

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.0% 5.9% 4.9% 8.6% D 39 +575

186

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.1% 0.0% 5.8% 6.3% D 34 +850

189

Tristan Peters L Edge

6.3% 0.0% 5.4% 5.1% D 33 +850

198

Chase Meidroth R

4.1% 4.2% 6.6% 4.8% D 31 —

218

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.4% 3.2% 0.0% 2.3% D 24 —

222

Luisangel Acuna R

4.1% 0.0% 5.0% 3.7% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.2% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.0% BRK 34.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.4% 10.7% 12.8% C 50 +330

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

176

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.2% 13.1% 10.6% D 36 +625

179

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.2% 3.8% 4.1% D 35 —

196

Yandy Diaz R

5.5% 10.8% 7.2% D 31 +500

206

Nick Fortes R

3.1% 2.0% 2.4% D 29 +950

214

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.0% 2.1% 4.0% D 27 —

219

Ben Williamson R

2.8% 0.0% 1.6% D 23 —

223

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.8% 0.0% 2.7% D 22 —

224

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 14 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Hicks's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery Vargas Mullins Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Rasmussen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Munetaka Murakami +350 · 60

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof unknown

Park 0.90× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.90× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 60 C+ +350 · 28 0.303 94.1 11.6% 39.6%vs RHP 407 18.2% 23.1% 31.9% 31

2 Colson Montgomery 51 C +400 COOL 68 0.232 89.1 9.2% 25.0%vs RHP 398 24.1% 16.7% 23.4% 27

3 Miguel Vargas 51 C +350 · 70 0.235 90.7 9.9% 15.3%vs RHP 389 20.7% 15.4% 12.3% 41

4 Andrew Benintendi 39 D +575 COOL 158 0.172 88.6 7.6% 15.9%vs RHP 389 13.9% 9.1% 10.4% 29

5 Sam Antonacci 34 D +850 COOL 186 0.137 87.8 6.5% 15.7%vs RHP 390 11.1% 9.1% 8.2% 35

6 Tristan Peters 33 D +850 COOL 189 0.155 87.3 5.9% 9.8%vs RHP 377 7.7% 0.0% 8.6% 31

7 Chase Meidroth 31 D — WARM 198 0.121 88.1 5.7% 16.7%vs RHP 380 7.6% 16.7% 8.1% 35

8 Edgar Quero 24 D — COOL 218 0.042 90.5 4.0% 0.0%vs RHP 389 4.3% 0.0% 6.0% 17

9 Luisangel Acuna 22 D — COOL 222 0.036 89.0 4.9% 8.3%vs RHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 13

vs Jordan Hicks · RHP 0.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.76 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 50 C +330 · 72 0.258 92.9 7.0% 38.6%vs RHP 408 26.4% 7.7% 15.3% 42

2 Jonathan Aranda 36 D +625 WARM 176 0.153 91.0 6.2% 18.4%vs RHP 387 11.8% 0.0% 6.7% 31

3 Cedric Mullins 35 D — COOL 179 0.154 88.0 3.9% 20.3%vs RHP 389 14.1% 20.0% 9.6% 29

4 Yandy Diaz 31 D +500 COOL 196 0.161 90.7 5.2% 21.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 41

5 Nick Fortes 29 D +950 WARM 206 0.106 85.8 3.0% 14.3%vs RHP 396 5.3% 33.3% 10.7% 23

6 Richie Palacios 27 D — COOL 214 0.108 85.8 3.9% 12.1%vs RHP 394 3.6% 0.0% 5.3% 20

7 Ben Williamson 23 D — COOL 219 0.076 87.3 2.5% 10.0%vs RHP 398 2.7% 0.0% 6.0% 24

8 Taylor Walls 22 D — COOL 223 0.070 85.3 3.2% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 17

9 Chandler Simpson 14 D — COOL 224 0.061 83.8 — 3.3%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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