TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ CLE

Playable air · 1.05×

AZ @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph cross 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:15p

+2 ↑

8:15p

+2 ↑

9:15p

+1 ↑

10:15p

+0 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +3

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 16 · vs Messick ⟷ Kyle Manzardo conv 27 · vs Drake → edge: Kyle Manzardo

ATTACK Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 13

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●○○○

2 Ketel Marte +400 D ●●○○○

3 Gabriel Moreno +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Kohl Drake LHP · AZ

leak 3

2.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Manzardo — C ●●●●○

2 Travis Bazzana +700 D ●●○○○

3 Rhys Hoskins +320 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Manzardo: Match 14.5% · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Kyle Manzardo ✶ HOT vs Drake — 0.165 · 89.5 · 11.6% 40.0% 14.5% F B O C 53

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Drake Edge +320 0.194 · 88.7 · 11.7% 12.5% 15.7% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Messick Edge +575 0.176 · 85.3 · 6.1% 18.2% 14.0% F B O D 40

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Messick Edge +400 0.199 · 90.5 · 7.4% 16.7% 14.4% F B O D 45

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Drake +700 0.155 · 88.3 · 7.1% 20.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Messick Edge +750 0.146 · 89.6 · 6.5% 15.4% 9.2% F B O D 37

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Messick Edge +950 0.124 · 87.1 · 4.1% 15.4% 6.8% F B O D 31

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Messick +425 0.231 · 91.8 · 8.1% 7.7% 12.6% F B O D 47

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Drake Edge +700 0.128 · 86.6 · 5.9% 6.7% 5.5% F B O D 37

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Messick Edge +750 0.134 · 87.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 30

· CLE Angel Martinez COOL vs Drake Edge +425 0.191 · 87.5 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 46

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Drake +475 0.160 · 91.1 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 43

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Drake Edge +330 0.161 · 89.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 43

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Drake — 0.057 · 83.5 · 1.8% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 23

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Messick — 0.125 · 88.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.4% ← leak OFF 23.7% BRK 15.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L

10.6% 12.1% 14.9% 12.2% D 47 +425

116

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.3% 3.8% 7.5% 10.3% D 45 +400

149

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.3% 3.7% 2.3% 7.1% D 40 +575

168

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

7.5% 9.4% 7.8% 7.8% D 37 +750

193

Adrian Del Castillo L

11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% D 33 —

199

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.7% 2.5% 1.8% 3.1% D 31 +950

201

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.3% 1.6% 1.7% 3.2% D 30 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.4% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.4% BRK 21.4% OFF 17.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

10.5% 15.4% 13.3% 12.1% C 55 +320

Kyle Manzardo L

12.6% 13.0% 8.1% 11.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

107

Angel Martinez S Edge

5.8% 15.2% 3.6% 7.4% D 46 +425

126

Travis Bazzana L

4.3% 3.9% 3.7% 4.1% D 44 +700

134

Chase Delauter L

9.1% 5.2% 1.7% 6.6% D 43 +475

137

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 43 +330

172

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 5.1% 1.2% 3.1% D 37 +700

220

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Drake's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Arenado Hoskins Manzardo Bazzana

Legend

attack side — vs Messick fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph cross 78°F open

↑

4 mph · out

77°F

7:15p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

75°F

8:15p

↑

4 mph · out

74°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:15p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

71°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 78°F, wind 5 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 47 D +425 WARM 98 0.231 91.8 8.1% 17.4%vs LHP 401 13.3% 7.7% 12.6% 37

2 Ketel Marte 45 D +400 COOL 116 0.199 90.5 7.4% 29.6%vs LHP 412 15.4% 16.7% 14.4% 42

3 Nolan Arenado 40 D +575 · 149 0.176 85.3 6.1% 25.0%vs LHP 391 13.0% 18.2% 14.0% 35

4 Gabriel Moreno 37 D +750 · 168 0.146 89.6 6.5% 17.6%vs LHP 400 9.2% 15.4% 9.2% 46

5 Adrian Del Castillo 33 D — COOL 193 0.125 88.8 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 400 7.4% 0.0% 5.3% 16

6 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D +950 COOL 199 0.124 87.1 4.1% 5.0%vs LHP 382 7.4% 15.4% 6.8% 44

7 Ildemaro Vargas 30 D +750 COOL 201 0.134 87.5 4.1% 27.8%vs LHP 399 5.1% 0.0% 9.5% 30

vs Kohl Drake · LHP 2.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 55 C +320 HOT 45 0.194 88.7 11.7% 21.1%vs LHP 386 13.0% 12.5% 15.7% 15

2 Kyle Manzardo ✶ 53 C — HOT 56 0.165 89.5 11.6% 10.0%vs LHP 386 13.5% 40.0% 14.5% 20

3 Angel Martinez 46 D +425 COOL 107 0.191 87.5 9.2% 22.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 15

4 Travis Bazzana 44 D +700 · 126 0.155 88.3 7.1% 10.0%vs LHP 396 11.9% 20.0% 9.0% 36

5 Chase Delauter 43 D +475 · 134 0.160 91.1 8.6% 14.3%vs LHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 39

6 Jose Ramirez 43 D +330 COOL 137 0.161 89.3 8.2% 22.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 31

7 Brayan Rocchio 37 D +700 · 172 0.128 86.6 5.9% 10.7%vs LHP 386 7.7% 6.7% 5.5% 48

8 Steven Kwan 23 D — COOL 220 0.057 83.5 1.8% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.0% 0.0% 5.6% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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