TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ CHC

Suppressed air · 0.54×

NYY @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 18 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-14 ↑

6:15p

-15 ↑

7:15p

-15 ↑

8:15p

-16 ↑

9:15p

-15 ↑

10:15p

best window is early — 6:15p at -14

Best of game Ben Rice conv 25 · vs Peterson ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 24 · vs Fried → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK David Peterson LHP · NYM

leak 95

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +525 B ●●●●○

2 Trent Grisham +750 D ●●○○○

3 Paul Goldschmidt +525 C ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 3

0.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki +850 D ●●●●○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +750 C ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Ben Rice ✶ vs Peterson +525 0.301 · 92.2 · 10.5% 20.0% 30.3% F B O B 70

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Fried +750 0.256 · 90.1 · 5.9% 23.1% 23.0% F B O C 55

· — Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Peterson Edge +525 0.211 · 86.4 · 8.7% 8.3% 16.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Fried Edge +850 0.204 · 88.8 · 5.3% 25.0% 22.7% F B O D 49

· — Trent Grisham COOL vs Peterson +750 0.168 · 90.9 · 8.3% 14.3% 11.9% F B O D 49

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Fried Edge — 0.133 · 87.8 · 3.5% 16.7% 7.0% F B O D 35

· CHC Michael Busch vs Fried — 0.149 · 88.4 · 5.3% 15.4% 7.0% F B O D 40

· — Austin Wells vs Peterson — 0.111 · 89.2 · 7.1% 10.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Fried Edge +950 0.202 · 89.5 · 5.9% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 47

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Fried — 0.229 · 91.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 15.2% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.094 · 86.0 · 1.5% 8.3% 6.4% F B O D 27

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Fried Edge +950 0.187 · 89.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 42

· — Jose Caballero COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.137 · 83.7 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 36

· — Ryan Mcmahon vs Peterson — 0.156 · 91.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 47

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Fried Edge — 0.110 · 87.8 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.1% ← leak BRK 23.4% OFF 13.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

9.9% 13.5% 15.0% 11.9% C 55 +750

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

10.4% 8.7% 10.0% 9.7% D 49 +850

103

Ian Happ S Edge

15.2% 17.2% 1.5% 12.1% D 47 +950

118

Michael Conforto L

9.9% 18.8% 13.6% 11.9% D 45 —

143

Dansby Swanson R Edge

6.8% 7.0% 13.3% 7.6% D 42 +950

151

Michael Busch L

12.5% 4.5% 2.7% 9.5% D 40 —

178

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.2% 6.5% 6.7% 4.4% D 35 —

192

Carson Kelly R Edge

7.3% 3.0% 5.9% 5.8% D 33 —

213

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.1% usage) carries Fried's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.9% ← leak BRK 34.2% OFF 11.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L

18.5% 12.9% 12.5% 15.8% B 70 +525

Neutral · 1

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

14.8% 4.8% 10.3% 11.2% C 53 +525

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L

11.3% 8.9% 5.6% 10.0% D 49 +750

104

Ryan Mcmahon L

13.0% 4.9% 9.1% 10.3% D 47 —

131

Austin Wells L

8.4% 9.4% 0.0% 7.3% D 43 —

173

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Peterson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ben Rice +525 · 70

Pete Crow-Armstrong +750 · 55

Seiya Suzuki +850 · 49

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 18 mph in 71°F open

-14

↑

17 mph · in

72°F

6:15p · peak

-15

↑

18 mph · in

73°F

7:15p

-15

↑

18 mph · in

72°F

8:15p

-16

↑

19 mph · in

71°F

9:15p

-15

↑

18 mph · in

71°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.54× 71°F, wind 18 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 55 C +750 WARM 42 0.256 90.1 5.9% 23.8%vs LHP 393 20.0% 23.1% 23.0% 34

2 Seiya Suzuki 49 D +850 · 79 0.204 88.8 5.3% 33.3%vs LHP 407 15.9% 25.0% 22.7% 30

3 Ian Happ 47 D +950 COOL 103 0.202 89.5 5.9% 14.3%vs LHP 404 17.4% 7.7% 10.8% 32

4 Michael Conforto 45 D — COOL 118 0.229 91.7 5.8% 19.1% 399 7.9% 0.0% 15.2% 16

5 Dansby Swanson 42 D +950 COOL 143 0.187 89.5 4.7% 23.8%vs LHP 403 12.0% 0.0% 11.2% 33

6 Michael Busch 40 D — · 151 0.149 88.4 5.3% 10.3%vs LHP 403 12.6% 15.4% 7.0% 44

7 Alex Bregman 35 D — · 178 0.133 87.8 3.5% 13.0%vs LHP 389 9.3% 16.7% 7.0% 41

8 Carson Kelly 33 D — COOL 192 0.110 87.8 4.1% 18.2%vs LHP 416 6.6% 0.0% 7.4% 25

9 Nico Hoerner 27 D — COOL 213 0.094 86.0 1.5% 8.7%vs LHP 383 4.6% 8.3% 6.4% 46

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 70 B +525 · 6 0.301 92.2 10.5% 45.0%vs LHP 390 26.2% 20.0% 30.3% 33

2 Paul Goldschmidt 53 C +525 COOL 52 0.211 86.4 8.7% 33.3%vs LHP 390 16.4% 8.3% 16.1% 32

3 Trent Grisham 49 D +750 COOL 82 0.168 90.9 8.3% 11.1%vs LHP 390 10.7% 14.3% 11.9% 41

4 Ryan Mcmahon 47 D — WARM 104 0.156 91.4 8.4% 0.0%vs LHP 384 20.0% 0.0% 9.0% 21

5 Austin Wells 43 D — WARM 131 0.111 89.2 7.1% 11.8%vs LHP 386 9.6% 10.0% 11.9% 16

6 Jose Caballero 36 D — COOL 173 0.137 83.7 4.9% 25.0%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.