TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.91×

SF @ SD

Petco Park · 8:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

5:40p

-4 ↑

6:40p

-6 ↑

7:40p

-6 ↑

8:40p

-5 ↑

9:40p

best window is early — 5:40p at -3

Best of game Ty France conv 25 · vs Mahle ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 23 · vs Buehler → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 85

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +525 C ●●●●○

2 Jackson Merrill +400 D ●●●●○

3 Manny Machado +400 C ●●●●○

FADE Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 82

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +350 C ●●●●○

2 Bryce Eldridge +400 D ●●●○○

3 Willy Adames +400 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ vs Mahle +525 0.249 · 92.4 · 8.9% 23.1% 27.1% F B O C 53

· SD Manny Machado HOT vs Mahle +400 0.221 · 90.5 · 8.8% 23.1% 23.6% F B O C 51

· SF Rafael Devers vs Buehler Edge +350 0.229 · 92.3 · 9.9% 23.1% 23.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Mahle Edge +400 0.155 · 89.9 · 8.6% 33.3% 14.0% F B O D 43

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Buehler Edge +400 0.198 · 92.5 · 10.5% 15.4% 17.5% F B O D 49

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Buehler +400 0.198 · 87.8 · 8.7% 15.4% 15.6% F B O D 45

· SF Heliot Ramos COOL vs Buehler +425 0.166 · 92.1 · 11.0% 7.7% 10.2% F B O D 43

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Buehler Edge — 0.134 · 87.0 · 4.6% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 30

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Mahle Edge +575 0.181 · 87.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 38

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Mahle +750 0.101 · 88.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 30

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Buehler Edge +950 0.119 · 86.0 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Mahle Edge +700 0.074 · 87.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 27

· SF Luis Arraez vs Buehler Edge — 0.119 · 86.9 · 2.1% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.3% BRK 28.3% OFF 10.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

13.2% 8.2% 8.9% 11.1% C 53 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.7% 6.2% 18.5% 13.0% D 49 +400

117

Willy Adames R

8.3% 9.7% 12.0% 9.0% D 45 +400

133

Heliot Ramos R

11.8% 17.7% 16.0% 14.2% D 43 +425

205

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.6% 2.8% 0.0% 2.4% D 30 —

211

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.8% 4.9% 0.0% 2.8% D 28 +950

221

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.8% ← leak OFF 24.9% BRK 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

11.8% 7.4% 12.1% 11.3% C 53 +525

Manny Machado R

13.7% 7.7% 6.9% 11.0% C 51 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

130

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.7% 6.2% 10.9% 10.7% D 43 +400

162

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.2% 1.9% 4.3% 6.7% D 38 +575

204

Xander Bogaerts R

7.6% 4.0% 2.6% 5.9% D 30 +750

212

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

5.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.9% D 27 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.8% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames France Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Ty France +525 · 53

Manny Machado +400 · 51

Rafael Devers +350 · 53

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 5:40p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph slight_out 83°F open

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

81°F

5:40p · peak

-4

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

6:40p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

7:40p

-6

↑

6 mph · cross

75°F

8:40p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

9:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 83°F, wind 6 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 53 C +350 · 54 0.229 92.3 9.9% 26.1%vs RHP 399 17.7% 23.1% 23.2% 36

2 Bryce Eldridge 49 D +400 · 80 0.198 92.5 10.5% 24.3%vs RHP 396 20.5% 15.4% 17.5% 27

3 Willy Adames 45 D +400 COOL 117 0.198 87.8 8.7% 20.5%vs RHP 388 15.1% 15.4% 15.6% 32

4 Heliot Ramos 43 D +425 COOL 133 0.166 92.1 11.0% 18.9%vs RHP 407 11.0% 7.7% 10.2% 37

5 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — · 205 0.134 87.0 4.6% 9.4%vs RHP 375 5.1% 8.3% 6.5% 36

6 Drew Gilbert 28 D +950 HOT 211 0.119 86.0 4.9% 12.9%vs RHP 398 3.2% 0.0% 6.7% 22

7 Luis Arraez 22 D — WARM 221 0.119 86.9 2.1% 3.2%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 45

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 53 C +525 WARM 53 0.249 92.4 8.9% 33.3%vs RHP 394 18.5% 23.1% 27.1% 41

2 Manny Machado 51 C +400 HOT 62 0.221 90.5 8.8% 29.7%vs RHP 397 20.2% 23.1% 23.6% 42

3 Jackson Merrill 43 D +400 HOT 130 0.155 89.9 8.6% 17.9%vs RHP 409 13.7% 33.3% 14.0% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 38 D +575 COOL 162 0.181 87.8 6.8% 28.8%vs RHP 397 10.5% 0.0% 10.9% 26

5 Xander Bogaerts 30 D +750 COOL 204 0.101 88.1 6.4% 15.4%vs RHP 396 7.9% 0.0% 7.1% 35

6 Jake Cronenworth 27 D +700 COOL 212 0.074 87.9 5.8% 13.6%vs RHP 389 1.6% 0.0% 6.6% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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