TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.30×

MIA @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+5 ↑

7:40p

+6 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +6

Best of game Owen Caissie conv 15 · vs Singer ⟷ Tyler Stephenson conv 29 · vs Gusto → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 91

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · leakiest side of this game

1 Owen Caissie +370 C ●●○○○

2 Javier Sanoja +700 D ●○○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +330 C ●○○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 80

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Stephenson +500 C ●●●●○

2 Sal Stewart +330 C+ ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +330 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: Match 28.8% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Gusto +500 0.168 · 91.2 · 10.0% 37.5% 20.8% F B O C 54

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ COOL vs Gusto +330 0.221 · 90.3 · 10.4% 25.0% 28.8% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Gusto Edge +330 0.220 · 93.8 · 10.5% 16.7% 18.4% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Gusto +305 0.215 · 88.6 · 10.0% 0.0% 29.6% F B O C 52

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Singer Edge +370 0.206 · 91.1 · 11.0% 10.0% 19.4% F B O C 59

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Singer +330 0.226 · 91.7 · 10.1% 0.0% 16.9% F B O C 54

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Gusto Edge +225 0.227 · 88.7 · 9.2% 0.0% 16.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Singer +700 0.133 · 86.7 · 4.2% 10.0% 7.7% F B O D 40

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Gusto +500 0.146 · 87.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 45

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Singer +575 0.147 · 89.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 45

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.081 · 87.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 34

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Singer Edge +525 0.102 · 87.0 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Singer Edge +700 0.104 · 86.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.2% ← leak BRK 41.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.6% 7.5% 15.1% C 59 +370

Heriberto Hernández R

11.5% 12.5% 12.3% C 54 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Otto Lopez R

8.9% 4.0% 6.0% D 45 +575

136

Javier Sanoja R

2.5% 2.2% 2.1% D 40 +700

144

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.9% 1.9% 3.4% D 39 +525

149

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.4% 2.4% 3.7% D 38 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.2% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.8% BRK 29.2% OFF 16.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Sal Stewart R

16.8% 9.3% 9.7% 13.3% C+ 62 +330

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.7% 10.0% 5.0% 13.3% C+ 60 +330

Tyler Stephenson R

15.7% 7.8% 5.9% 12.5% C 54 +500

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.9% 7.1% 5.7% 10.0% C 53 +225

Eugenio Suarez R

14.5% 7.7% 5.9% 12.3% C 52 +305

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Matt Mclain R

12.0% 9.3% 0.0% 10.0% D 45 +500

176

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.7% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Gusto's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Stewart Cruz Stephenson Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Tyler Stephenson +500 · 54

Sal Stewart +330 · 62

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 2 mph out 87°F open

↑

2 mph · out

87°F

6:40p · peak

↑

1 mph · out

83°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · out

81°F

8:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

79°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 87°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 59 C +370 COOL 19 0.206 91.1 11.0% 26.1%vs RHP 398 15.1% 10.0% 19.4% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández 54 C +330 COOL 40 0.226 91.7 10.1% 18.6%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 22

3 Otto Lopez 45 D +575 COOL 95 0.147 89.0 7.1% 10.9%vs RHP 402 6.8% 0.0% 9.9% 47

4 Javier Sanoja 40 D +700 WARM 136 0.133 86.7 4.2% 2.6%vs RHP 383 5.0% 10.0% 7.7% 34

5 Jakob Marsee 39 D +525 COOL 144 0.102 87.0 5.3% 7.9%vs RHP 380 6.2% 0.0% 8.6% 30

6 Xavier Edwards 38 D +700 COOL 149 0.104 86.9 5.5% 2.9%vs RHP 396 4.2% 0.0% 7.9% 38

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 62 C+ +330 COOL 13 0.221 90.3 10.4% 24.1%vs RHP 395 17.0% 25.0% 28.8% 34

2 Elly De La Cruz 60 C+ +330 COOL 16 0.220 93.8 10.5% 21.4%vs RHP 396 16.8% 16.7% 18.4% 34

3 Tyler Stephenson 54 C +500 HOT 41 0.168 91.2 10.0% 19.6%vs RHP 392 9.6% 37.5% 20.8% 24

4 Jj Bleday 53 C +225 COOL 46 0.227 88.7 9.2% 23.8%vs RHP 388 20.0% 0.0% 16.4% 30

5 Eugenio Suarez 52 C +305 WARM 51 0.215 88.6 10.0% 29.5%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 29.6% 23

6 Matt Mclain 45 D +500 WARM 92 0.146 87.8 9.0% 10.7%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 24

7 Tj Friedl 34 D — COOL 176 0.081 87.4 4.5% 7.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.