TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.52×

AZ @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 7 mph out 85°F Roof open

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7:15p

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11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +10

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 27 · vs Holmes ⟷ Matt Olson conv 39 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 85

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +500 C ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll +425 C+ ●●●●○

3 Tim Tawa +575 D ●●●○○

FADE Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · AZ

leak 27

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +280 B ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley +425 C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Smith — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Rodriguez +280 0.285 · 92.7 · 11.4% 50.0% 28.7% F B O B 72

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Holmes +500 0.192 · 85.1 · 8.0% 30.8% 24.1% F B O C 57

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Holmes Edge +425 0.239 · 91.6 · 10.5% 23.1% 26.4% F B O C+ 65

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Rodriguez Edge +425 0.150 · 91.1 · 10.2% 25.0% 16.0% F B O C 52

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Holmes Edge +305 0.197 · 90.1 · 9.6% 15.4% 17.5% F B O C 58

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.190 · 90.4 · 10.6% 0.0% 20.5% F B O C 50

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Rodriguez +425 0.178 · 91.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 13.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Holmes +575 0.147 · 90.4 · 8.0% 14.3% 19.2% F B O D 49

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Rodriguez — 0.131 · 87.8 · 6.9% 25.0% 7.8% F B O D 43

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Rodriguez Edge +500 0.176 · 87.0 · 6.1% 18.2% 13.5% F B O D 48

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Rodriguez — 0.167 · 90.5 · 8.0% 12.5% 13.5% F B O D 48

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Holmes Edge +850 0.129 · 87.2 · 5.4% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 42

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.197 · 90.8 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 49

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Holmes +575 0.148 · 89.2 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.135 · 87.6 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Holmes +700 0.116 · 88.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 43

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Rodriguez Edge +750 0.132 · 86.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.3% ← leak BRK 43.9% OFF 5.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.3% 15.4% 9.9% 12.3% C+ 65 +425

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.1% 7.8% 3.6% 10.2% C 58 +305

Nolan Arenado R

10.2% 2.0% 6.1% 7.1% C 57 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Tim Tawa R

7.3% 8.3% 4.8% 7.2% D 49 +575

Gabriel Moreno R

6.2% 7.1% 8.1% 6.7% D 46 +575

111

Ryan Waldschmidt R

8.5% 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% D 43 +700

121

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.2% 1.6% 2.2% 3.3% D 42 +850

129

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.1% 3.0% 1.5% 3.3% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.3% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.7% ← leak OFF 26.8% BRK 12.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L

17.5% 12.8% 12.4% 15.4% B 72 +280

Neutral · 3

Drake Baldwin L

13.4% 4.4% 20.0% 13.7% C 53 +425

Austin Riley R Edge

13.9% 5.6% 13.1% 12.6% C 52 +425

Ronald Acuna R Edge

14.2% 12.0% 11.9% 13.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Michael Harris L

6.7% 15.3% 13.8% 10.7% D 49 —

Mike Yastrzemski L

7.8% 6.7% 7.8% 7.7% D 48 —

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.0% 2.9% 1.8% 4.5% D 48 +500

113

Dominic Smith L

5.9% 2.6% 7.5% 5.7% D 43 —

152

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

2.9% 5.0% 5.7% 4.0% D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.7% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Tawa Olson Riley Yastrzemski Albies Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Matt Olson +280 · 72

Nolan Arenado +500 · 57

Corbin Carroll +425 · 65

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 7 mph out 85°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · out

85°F

7:15p · peak

+10

↑

7 mph · out

85°F

8:15p

↑

6 mph · out

83°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

10:15p

↑

4 mph · out

81°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.52× 85°F, wind 7 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 65 C+ +425 · 7 0.239 91.6 10.5% 16.9%vs RHP 402 14.6% 23.1% 26.4% 40

2 Ketel Marte 58 C +305 COOL 23 0.197 90.1 9.6% 14.3%vs RHP 409 15.4% 15.4% 17.5% 32

3 Nolan Arenado 57 C +500 · 25 0.192 85.1 8.0% 20.6%vs RHP 390 15.0% 30.8% 24.1% 36

4 Tim Tawa 49 D +575 WARM 73 0.147 90.4 8.0% 24.0%vs RHP 401 8.0% 14.3% 19.2% 36

5 Gabriel Moreno 46 D +575 COOL 90 0.148 89.2 7.7% 13.5%vs RHP 400 7.9% 0.0% 10.0% 39

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 43 D +700 COOL 111 0.116 88.1 8.1% 7.4%vs RHP 419 3.0% 0.0% 8.1% 31

7 Geraldo Perdomo 42 D +850 WARM 121 0.129 87.2 5.4% 10.7%vs RHP 383 7.5% 8.3% 8.8% 43

8 Ildemaro Vargas 41 D — COOL 129 0.135 87.6 5.4% 8.1%vs RHP 399 4.5% 0.0% 8.6% 24

vs Eduardo Rodriguez · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B +280 WARM 1 0.285 92.7 11.4% 24.1%vs LHP 407 25.2% 50.0% 28.7% 31

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C +425 COOL 47 0.178 91.6 10.7% 33.3%vs LHP 403 16.7% 0.0% 13.6% 38

3 Austin Riley 52 C +425 HOT 53 0.150 91.1 10.2% 16.0%vs LHP 407 9.9% 25.0% 16.0% 28

4 Ronald Acuna 50 C — · 62 0.190 90.4 10.6% 16.7%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 38

5 Michael Harris 49 D — COOL 68 0.197 90.8 9.6% 24.1%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 34

6 Mike Yastrzemski 48 D — WARM 77 0.167 90.5 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 389 9.1% 12.5% 13.5% 20

7 Ozzie Albies 48 D +500 WARM 78 0.176 87.0 6.1% 14.8%vs LHP 386 14.8% 18.2% 13.5% 33

8 Dominic Smith 43 D — WARM 113 0.131 87.8 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 392 8.3% 25.0% 7.8% 7

9 Mauricio Dubon 37 D +750 COOL 152 0.132 86.9 5.8% 10.5%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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