TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.98×

SD @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

the 8:10p window peaks +3

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 23 · vs Cantillo ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 30 · vs Proxy → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 80

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill — C ●●●●○

2 Xander Bogaerts — D ●●○○○

3 Ty France — C ●●○○○

FADE SD Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 49

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●●

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Brayan Rocchio — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: Match 20.1% · 14D pace 40.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Rhys Hoskins ✶ vs Proxy — 0.200 · 89.3 · 12.9% 40.0% 20.1% F B O C 56

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Cantillo — 0.174 · 90.5 · 9.8% 30.8% 16.0% F B O C 51

· SD Ty France COOL vs Cantillo Edge — 0.227 · 92.3 · 9.4% 7.7% 14.8% F B O C 52

· SD Manny Machado vs Cantillo Edge — 0.201 · 90.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Xander Bogaerts HOT vs Cantillo Edge — 0.102 · 88.5 · 6.8% 15.4% 9.2% F B O D 37

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Cantillo Edge — 0.139 · 92.4 · 9.8% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 41

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Cantillo — 0.179 · 87.5 · 7.9% 7.7% 8.0% F B O D 43

· — Steven Kwan COOL vs Proxy — 0.062 · 83.7 · 0.3% 9.1% 6.3% F B O D 22

· — Brayan Rocchio vs Proxy — 0.115 · 86.5 · 3.4% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 32

· — Angel Martinez vs Proxy — 0.194 · 87.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 42

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Cantillo Edge — 0.123 · 87.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 35

· — Chase Delauter vs Proxy — 0.160 · 91.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· — Jose Ramirez COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 89.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 34

· — Travis Bazzana vs Proxy — 0.141 · 88.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Cantillo — 0.068 · 87.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.2% ← leak BRK 33.9% OFF 25.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ty France R Edge

10.5% 11.3% 10.0% 10.7% C 52 —

Jackson Merrill L

13.6% 11.1% 6.8% 11.5% C 51 —

Manny Machado R Edge

12.3% 6.5% 9.5% 10.3% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

112

Gavin Sheets L

10.1% 6.1% 1.7% 7.5% D 43 —

124

Fernando Tatis R Edge

9.6% 13.9% 16.7% 11.6% D 41 —

157

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

6.8% 3.6% 3.4% 5.7% D 37 —

170

Freddy Fermin R Edge

3.1% 5.6% 10.0% 4.2% D 35 —

197

Jake Cronenworth L

4.3% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.2% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for SD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Merrill Hoskins

Legend

attack side — vs Cantillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rhys Hoskins — · 56

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 3 mph slight_out 75°F open

↑

3 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

73°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

72°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 75°F, wind 3 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 52 C — COOL 54 0.227 92.3 9.4% 18.8%vs LHP 392 16.4% 7.7% 14.8% 39

2 Jackson Merrill 51 C — WARM 58 0.174 90.5 9.8% 11.5%vs LHP 412 15.7% 30.8% 16.0% 40

3 Manny Machado 50 C — WARM 64 0.201 90.9 9.3% 15.4%vs LHP 397 17.9% 0.0% 12.6% 39

4 Gavin Sheets 43 D — WARM 112 0.179 87.5 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.2% 7.7% 8.0% 20

5 Fernando Tatis 41 D — WARM 124 0.139 92.4 9.8% 28.6%vs LHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 39

6 Xander Bogaerts 37 D — HOT 157 0.102 88.5 6.8% 5.6%vs LHP 398 8.8% 15.4% 9.2% 31

7 Freddy Fermin 35 D — WARM 170 0.123 87.6 5.9% 14.3%vs LHP 382 3.1% 0.0% 10.2% 16

8 Jake Cronenworth 29 D — COOL 197 0.068 87.3 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 389 1.4% 0.0% 5.8% 40

vs SD Bullpen Proxy 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 56 C — WARM 50 0.200 89.3 12.9% 15.3% 389 14.6% 40.0% 20.1% 13

2 Angel Martinez 42 D — WARM 145 0.194 87.7 8.3% 17.6% 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 28

3 Chase Delauter 39 D — · 167 0.160 91.2 6.7% 13.3% 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 42

4 Travis Bazzana 36 D — · 184 0.141 88.4 4.5% 9.5% 396 10.4% 0.0% 7.7% 26

5 Jose Ramirez 34 D — COOL 188 0.146 89.3 5.3% 8.5% 392 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 28

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D — WARM 200 0.115 86.5 3.4% 7.6% 386 7.8% 8.3% 7.0% 36

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 213 0.062 83.7 0.3% 2.0% 372 1.8% 9.1% 6.3% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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