TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.85×

TEX @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 11 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+19 ↑

6:40p

+18 ↑

7:40p

+16 ↑

8:40p

+13 ↑

9:40p

+11 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +19

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 29 · vs Ginn ⟷ Lawrence Butler conv 24 · vs Gore → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK J.T. Ginn RHP · ATH

leak 84

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Brandon Nimmo +425 C ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager +330 C ●●●○○

FADE MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 29

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Lawrence Butler +575 D ●●●●○

2 Tyler Soderstrom +425 C+ ●●●●○

3 Henry Bolte +425 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Ginn Edge +290 0.256 · 92.1 · 8.2% 18.2% 39.7% F B O C+ 66

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Gore +425 0.229 · 90.8 · 9.2% 16.7% 29.4% F B O C+ 62

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Ginn Edge +425 0.168 · 92.2 · 8.0% 23.1% 20.8% F B O C 55

· TEX Corey Seager vs Ginn Edge +330 0.191 · 91.4 · 9.4% 16.7% 19.3% F B O C 58

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Ginn +400 0.209 · 89.3 · 6.9% 7.7% 16.6% F B O C 54

· TEX Jake Burger vs Ginn +400 0.174 · 89.8 · 7.9% 9.1% 14.1% F B O C 53

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Gore Edge +425 0.187 · 87.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 18.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Gore +575 0.130 · 89.5 · 8.2% 33.3% 14.6% F B O D 49

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Gore Edge +425 0.095 · 91.1 · 8.2% 16.7% 17.2% F B O D 46

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Gore +850 0.076 · 86.3 · 3.0% 25.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Ginn +700 0.171 · 88.6 · 6.0% 7.7% 13.8% F B O D 49

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Gore — 0.151 · 89.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 46

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Ginn Edge +625 0.128 · 87.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 43

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Gore Edge — 0.123 · 84.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.0% ← leak OFF 20.4% BRK 15.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.5% 3.6% 12.5% 11.4% C+ 66 +290

Corey Seager L Edge

14.4% 17.6% 14.3% 15.1% C 58 +330

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.5% 8.3% 18.0% 10.9% C 55 +425

Wyatt Langford R

4.9% 15.0% 11.5% 7.9% C 54 +400

Jake Burger R

9.9% 9.4% 12.0% 10.6% C 53 +400

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R

8.3% 0.0% 5.9% 6.4% D 49 +700

108

Evan Carter L Edge

7.5% 0.0% 4.5% 5.6% D 43 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Ginn's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.1% ← leak BRK 29.1% OFF 11.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Tyler Soderstrom L

9.4% 15.6% 0.0% 9.5% C+ 62 +425

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.7% 4.1% 10.4% 7.5% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L

7.9% 8.7% 3.8% 7.1% D 49 +575

Henry Bolte R Edge

8.4% 6.8% 4.8% 7.6% D 46 +425

Carlos Cortes L

7.5% 4.3% 7.8% 6.9% D 46 —

143

Jacob Wilson R Edge

4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 39 —

173

Jeff Mcneil L

0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% D 35 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.1% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Nimmo Soderstrom Butler Bolte Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Ginn fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Nimmo +425 · 55

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 11 mph out 79°F open

+19

↑

11 mph · out

79°F

6:40p · peak

+18

↑

11 mph · out

76°F

7:40p

+16

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

8:40p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

71°F

9:40p

+11

↑

7 mph · slight_out

68°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.85× 79°F, wind 11 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs J.T. Ginn · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 66 C+ +290 WARM 3 0.256 92.1 8.2% 31.4%vs RHP 396 22.1% 18.2% 39.7% 21

2 Corey Seager 58 C +330 · 22 0.191 91.4 9.4% 22.2%vs RHP 395 17.2% 16.7% 19.3% 35

3 Brandon Nimmo 55 C +425 COOL 39 0.168 92.2 8.0% 12.9%vs RHP 403 10.7% 23.1% 20.8% 38

4 Wyatt Langford 54 C +400 COOL 43 0.209 89.3 6.9% 20.9%vs RHP 397 15.7% 7.7% 16.6% 28

5 Jake Burger 53 C +400 · 49 0.174 89.8 7.9% 22.4%vs RHP 398 15.5% 9.1% 14.1% 28

6 Ezequiel Duran 49 D +700 · 67 0.171 88.6 6.0% 22.0%vs RHP 393 12.5% 7.7% 13.8% 35

7 Evan Carter 43 D +625 COOL 108 0.128 87.6 5.7% 13.3%vs RHP 374 7.9% 0.0% 10.2% 30

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 62 C+ +425 WARM 12 0.229 90.8 9.2% 32.1%vs LHP 404 15.9% 16.7% 29.4% 27

2 Jonah Heim 51 C +425 WARM 57 0.187 87.5 8.2% 33.3%vs LHP 414 9.8% 0.0% 18.3% 32

3 Lawrence Butler 49 D +575 WARM 72 0.130 89.5 8.2% 10.0%vs LHP 410 7.8% 33.3% 14.6% 37

4 Henry Bolte 46 D +425 WARM 85 0.095 91.1 8.2% 36.4%vs LHP 423 9.8% 16.7% 17.2% 31

5 Carlos Cortes 46 D — COOL 89 0.151 89.5 7.8% 12.3% 403 4.8% 0.0% 10.3% 15

6 Jacob Wilson 39 D — WARM 143 0.123 84.1 4.7% 8.0%vs LHP 386 6.7% 0.0% 9.4% 28

7 Jeff Mcneil 35 D +850 WARM 173 0.076 86.3 3.0% 0.0%vs LHP 377 5.6% 25.0% 7.1% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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