TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CHC

Playable air · 1.06×

STL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

1:20p

+8 ↑

2:20p

+9 ↑

3:20p

+8 ↑

4:20p

+8 ↑

5:20p

the 3:20p window peaks +9

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 18 · vs Boyd ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 24 · vs McGreevy → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 88

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +500 C ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +305 C ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 75

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki +390 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●●○

3 Alex Bregman +525 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs McGreevy +390 0.205 · 88.9 · 10.2% 25.0% 23.8% F B O C 59

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs McGreevy Edge +305 0.258 · 90.2 · 11.2% 15.4% 30.2% F B O C+ 66

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs McGreevy Edge +500 0.199 · 89.5 · 10.7% 16.7% 22.9% F B O C 58

· STL Alec Burleson vs Boyd +500 0.195 · 91.9 · 10.2% 18.2% 18.3% F B O C 56

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs McGreevy +500 0.189 · 89.5 · 8.8% 15.4% 16.1% F B O C 52

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Boyd Edge +305 0.205 · 92.6 · 10.9% 9.1% 18.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman HOT vs McGreevy +525 0.154 · 88.3 · 6.8% 23.1% 18.6% F B O D 48

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs McGreevy +950 0.103 · 86.0 · 3.5% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 35

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs McGreevy +625 0.112 · 87.0 · 7.6% 11.1% 7.8% F B O D 41

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Boyd — 0.125 · 86.0 · 7.9% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 42

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs McGreevy Edge +500 0.143 · 88.1 · 9.6% 7.7% 9.3% F B O D 48

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Boyd Edge +425 0.142 · 89.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 40

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Boyd Edge +700 0.115 · 86.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 36

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Boyd +625 0.135 · 89.8 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 43

· STL Masyn Winn vs Boyd Edge +575 0.081 · 88.2 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.2% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 26.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jordan Walker R Edge

13.4% 11.5% 16.7% 13.1% C 57 +305

Alec Burleson L

11.8% 11.9% 10.0% 11.5% C 56 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

114

Jj Wetherholt L

10.0% 4.3% 2.0% 7.4% D 43 +625

122

Nathan Church L

8.4% 6.4% 4.6% 6.8% D 42 —

131

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.3% 4.8% 6.7% 5.8% D 40 +425

160

José Fermín R Edge

2.5% 2.2% 0.0% 2.0% D 36 +700

182

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.3% 2.0% 5.9% 3.1% D 33 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.2% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 26.8% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.8% 13.8% 13.8% 12.3% C+ 66 +305

Seiya Suzuki R

11.1% 9.4% 9.1% 10.3% C 59 +390

Ian Happ S Edge

14.6% 14.7% 1.4% 11.3% C 58 +500

Dansby Swanson R

7.6% 6.5% 11.8% 7.8% C 52 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Alex Bregman R

3.6% 6.9% 6.1% 4.7% D 48 +525

Michael Busch L Edge

12.1% 3.8% 2.1% 8.8% D 48 +500

130

Carson Kelly R

6.5% 4.1% 5.6% 5.7% D 41 +625

171

Nico Hoerner R

1.1% 0.9% 2.1% 1.2% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Burleson Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Happ Swanson Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Boyd fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Seiya Suzuki +390 · 59

Alex Bregman +525 · 48

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 6 mph out 74°F open

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

1:20p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

2:20p

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

3:20p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

4:20p

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 74°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 57 C +305 COOL 27 0.205 92.6 10.9% 36.8%vs LHP 408 16.5% 9.1% 18.2% 33

2 Alec Burleson 56 C +500 WARM 31 0.195 91.9 10.2% 9.4%vs LHP 404 14.7% 18.2% 18.3% 31

3 Jj Wetherholt 43 D +625 · 114 0.135 89.8 8.2% 11.4%vs LHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 7.8% 32

4 Nathan Church 42 D — COOL 122 0.125 86.0 7.9% 18.2%vs LHP 384 8.3% 9.1% 8.3% 37

5 Ivan Herrera 40 D +425 WARM 131 0.142 89.6 7.3% 26.1%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 41

6 José Fermín 36 D +700 COOL 160 0.115 86.8 4.3% 13.0%vs LHP 388 5.6% 0.0% 9.0% 28

7 Masyn Winn 33 D +575 · 182 0.081 88.2 5.3% 0.0%vs LHP 390 3.5% 0.0% 7.1% 28

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 66 C+ +305 · 4 0.258 90.2 11.2% 23.0%vs RHP 396 19.5% 15.4% 30.2% 33

2 Seiya Suzuki 59 C +390 WARM 20 0.205 88.9 10.2% 21.3%vs RHP 405 17.0% 25.0% 23.8% 38

3 Ian Happ 58 C +500 COOL 21 0.199 89.5 10.7% 24.3%vs RHP 402 17.4% 16.7% 22.9% 26

4 Dansby Swanson 52 C +500 · 52 0.189 89.5 8.8% 17.6%vs RHP 405 12.4% 15.4% 16.1% 33

5 Alex Bregman 48 D +525 HOT 75 0.154 88.3 6.8% 19.8%vs RHP 387 10.8% 23.1% 18.6% 42

6 Michael Busch 48 D +500 COOL 79 0.143 88.1 9.6% 13.6%vs RHP 401 12.1% 7.7% 9.3% 43

7 Carson Kelly 41 D +625 COOL 130 0.112 87.0 7.6% 6.7%vs RHP 413 7.0% 11.1% 7.8% 25

8 Nico Hoerner 35 D +950 WARM 171 0.103 86.0 3.5% 7.7%vs RHP 381 5.8% 16.7% 7.9% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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