TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.18×

KC @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 10 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:38p

+5 ↑

7:38p

+4 ↑

8:38p

+2 ↑

9:38p

+1 ↑

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best window is early — 6:38p at +6

Best of game Mike Trout conv 16 · vs Dobnak ⟷ Jac Caglianone conv 28 · vs Detmers → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 78

0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +370 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +500 D ●○○○○

3 Josh Lowe +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 67

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jac Caglianone +390 C ●●●●○

2 Michael Massey +700 D ●●○○○

3 Carter Jensen +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ vs Detmers +390 0.217 · 93.2 · 10.9% 33.3% 22.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· LAA Mike Trout vs Dobnak +370 0.204 · 90.4 · 9.3% 15.4% 16.3% F B O D 46

· KC Michael Massey vs Detmers +700 0.158 · 89.7 · 6.9% 18.2% 13.5% F B O D 36

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Dobnak +500 0.190 · 89.3 · 7.8% 7.7% 10.6% F B O D 42

· KC Carter Jensen vs Detmers +500 0.186 · 90.7 · 9.1% 9.1% 8.8% F B O D 41

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Dobnak Edge +525 0.140 · 89.2 · 6.8% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 35

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Dobnak Edge +850 0.112 · 87.4 · 3.6% 7.7% 5.3% F B O D 26

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Detmers Edge — 0.163 · 92.7 · 9.8% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Detmers Edge +400 0.153 · 89.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Dobnak +750 0.134 · 88.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Detmers Edge +700 0.145 · 86.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Dobnak — 0.124 · 87.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

· KC Isaac Collins vs Detmers Edge — 0.125 · 88.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.6% ← leak BRK 43.5% OFF 10.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L

13.2% 17.7% 11.9% 14.4% C 51 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

128

Carter Jensen L

9.8% 10.3% 10.0% 10.0% D 41 +500

151

Bobby Witt R Edge

12.0% 10.4% 13.3% 11.6% D 38 —

164

Michael Massey L

7.4% 5.6% 1.9% 5.8% D 36 +700

180

Salvador Perez R Edge

12.8% 6.6% 7.1% 9.5% D 33 +400

190

Nick Loftin R Edge

5.8% 2.0% 0.0% 4.1% D 30 +700

192

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.9% 9.7% 2.4% 5.8% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.6% usage) carries Detmers's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.6% BRK 26.9% OFF 21.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R

15.2% 24.4% 11.5% 16.5% D 46 +370

120

Zach Neto R

13.9% 8.0% 10.3% 11.7% D 42 +500

172

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.5% 2.6% 6.5% 8.7% D 35 +525

187

Vaughn Grissom R

8.6% 6.2% 0.0% 6.5% D 31 +750

191

Oswald Peraza R

6.1% 6.9% 10.7% 7.0% D 30 —

209

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.7% 3.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 26 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobnak's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Massey Trout

Legend

attack side — vs Dobnak fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +390 · 51

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.84× Wind 10 mph out 77°F open

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

6:38p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

74°F

7:38p

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

8:38p

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

9:38p

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 77°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 51 C +390 · 56 0.217 93.2 10.9% 28.6%vs LHP 418 15.7% 33.3% 22.2% 43

2 Carter Jensen 41 D +500 · 128 0.186 90.7 9.1% 9.1%vs LHP 394 14.6% 9.1% 8.8% 26

3 Bobby Witt 38 D — COOL 151 0.163 92.7 9.8% 13.0%vs LHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 31

4 Michael Massey 36 D +700 · 164 0.158 89.7 6.9% 30.0%vs LHP 401 7.2% 18.2% 13.5% 29

5 Salvador Perez 33 D +400 COOL 180 0.153 89.0 8.8% 13.5%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 35

6 Nick Loftin 30 D +700 COOL 190 0.145 86.8 5.8% 4.2%vs LHP 397 8.6% 0.0% 6.3% 30

7 Isaac Collins 30 D — · 192 0.125 88.4 6.9% 8.0%vs LHP 394 5.8% 0.0% 6.2% 28

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 46 D +370 WARM 83 0.204 90.4 9.3% 24.2%vs RHP 409 15.8% 15.4% 16.3% 30

2 Zach Neto 42 D +500 COOL 120 0.190 89.3 7.8% 18.8%vs RHP 402 15.5% 7.7% 10.6% 32

3 Josh Lowe 35 D +525 WARM 172 0.140 89.2 6.8% 15.7%vs RHP 396 10.0% 8.3% 8.4% 15

4 Vaughn Grissom 31 D +750 COOL 187 0.134 88.2 5.9% 17.9%vs RHP 390 8.9% 0.0% 7.4% 33

5 Oswald Peraza 30 D — WARM 191 0.124 87.6 6.0% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.7% 0.0% 6.3% 14

6 Nolan Schanuel 26 D +850 · 209 0.112 87.4 3.6% 9.4%vs RHP 375 6.7% 7.7% 5.3% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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