TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.96×

BOS @ PIT

PNC Park · 7:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 2 mph slight_out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:15p

-1 ↑

8:15p

-1 ↑

9:15p

-2 ↑

10:15p

-3 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +0

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 29 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 24 · vs Gray → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 91

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +320 C ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +625 D ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran +425 D ●●●○○

FADE Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 59

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +400 C ●●●●○

2 Jared Triolo — D ●●○○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 12.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Jones Edge +320 0.207 · 90.0 · 10.1% 33.3% 23.7% F B O C 56

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Gray Edge +400 0.226 · 91.0 · 9.0% 23.1% 25.2% F B O C 54

· BOS Willson Contreras COOL vs Jones +350 0.248 · 90.5 · 10.8% 9.1% 19.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Jones +625 0.179 · 86.4 · 6.6% 25.0% 20.5% F B O D 46

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Jones Edge +425 0.151 · 89.7 · 8.8% 23.1% 20.0% F B O D 47

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Jones +950 0.156 · 83.8 · 4.7% 16.7% 10.9% F B O D 38

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Gray — 0.075 · 87.5 · 3.8% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 28

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Jones Edge +575 0.125 · 88.5 · 5.3% 9.1% 8.1% F B O D 36

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Gray Edge — 0.094 · 85.8 · 3.5% 7.7% 7.2% F B O D 28

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Gray Edge +625 0.170 · 90.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Jones +750 0.175 · 88.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 43

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Gray Edge +700 0.156 · 86.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 38

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Gray — 0.092 · 86.3 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.3% ← leak BRK 42.9% OFF 11.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

11.9% 15.9% 21.2% 14.1% C 57 +350

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

11.7% 15.3% 11.7% 12.6% C 56 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.2% 7.1% 7.6% 9.8% D 47 +425

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 5.9% 12.5% 5.5% D 46 +625

110

Andruw Monasterio R

7.6% 7.8% 14.3% 8.2% D 43 +750

147

Caleb Durbin R

3.3% 2.3% 3.1% 3.0% D 38 +950

162

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.3% 0.0% 4.5% 3.6% D 36 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.3% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.9% ← leak BRK 36.8% OFF 5.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.7% 8.2% 8.8% 12.5% C 54 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

109

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.0% 13.8% 7.2% 10.9% D 43 +625

148

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.5% 6.8% 10.7% 7.7% D 38 +700

201

Jared Triolo R

3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 2.8% D 28 —

202

Nick Gonzales R

2.3% 4.7% 0.0% 2.8% D 28 —

203

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.9% usage) carries Gray's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Duran Rafaela Durbin Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Wilyer Abreu +320 · 56

Brandon Lowe +400 · 54

Ceddanne Rafaela +625 · 46

Jarren Duran +425 · 47

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 2 mph slight_out 75°F open

↑

2 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:15p · peak

-1

↑

1 mph · cross

75°F

8:15p

-1

↑

2 mph · cross

74°F

9:15p

-2

↑

2 mph · cross

74°F

10:15p

-3

↑

2 mph · in

73°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 75°F, wind 2 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 57 C +350 COOL 24 0.248 90.5 10.8% 30.9%vs RHP 406 19.6% 9.1% 19.2% 24

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 56 C +320 · 29 0.207 90.0 10.1% 17.0%vs RHP 406 16.1% 33.3% 23.7% 38

3 Jarren Duran 47 D +425 · 81 0.151 89.7 8.8% 30.0%vs RHP 399 13.0% 23.1% 20.0% 36

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 46 D +625 · 84 0.179 86.4 6.6% 17.9%vs RHP 382 13.7% 25.0% 20.5% 45

5 Andruw Monasterio 43 D +750 COOL 110 0.175 88.4 8.1% 2.8%vs RHP 390 13.0% 0.0% 9.3% 38

6 Caleb Durbin 38 D +950 WARM 147 0.156 83.8 4.7% 20.5%vs RHP 375 9.6% 16.7% 10.9% 41

7 Masataka Yoshida 36 D +575 HOT 162 0.125 88.5 5.3% 10.0%vs RHP 368 9.8% 9.1% 8.1% 36

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 54 C +400 · 44 0.226 91.0 9.0% 25.9%vs RHP 392 17.1% 23.1% 25.2% 27

2 Bryan Reynolds 43 D +625 · 109 0.170 90.6 8.5% 17.0%vs RHP 409 11.7% 0.0% 10.1% 34

3 Spencer Horwitz 38 D +700 COOL 148 0.156 86.8 7.1% 16.1%vs RHP 395 10.5% 0.0% 9.2% 29

4 Jared Triolo 28 D — WARM 201 0.075 87.5 3.8% 5.3%vs RHP 419 1.6% 12.5% 8.3% 18

5 Nick Gonzales 28 D — COOL 202 0.092 86.3 4.3% 10.9%vs RHP 397 6.8% 0.0% 8.1% 40

6 Jake Mangum 28 D — WARM 203 0.094 85.8 3.5% 10.7%vs RHP 393 5.1% 7.7% 7.2% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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