TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.95×

PHI @ MIN

Target Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph cross 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:10p

-2 ↑

7:10p

-1 ↑

8:10p

-1 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Josh Bell conv 22 · vs Luzardo ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 22 · vs Prielipp → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Jesús Luzardo LHP · PHI

leak 76

0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Josh Bell +575 D ●●●○○

2 Luke Keaschall +950 D ●●●○○

3 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

FADE Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 17

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +245 C+ ●●●○○

2 Bryce Harper +425 C ●●●○○

3 Brandon Marsh +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 29.1% · 14D pace 15.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Prielipp +245 0.294 · 93.1 · 12.2% 15.4% 29.1% F B O C+ 66

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Prielipp +425 0.242 · 90.2 · 9.9% 23.1% 21.1% F B O C 57

· MIN Byron Buxton COOL vs Luzardo Edge +320 0.280 · 90.3 · 10.3% 0.0% 20.9% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· MIN Josh Bell vs Luzardo Edge +575 0.170 · 90.0 · 7.8% 27.3% 16.2% F B O D 43

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Luzardo Edge +950 0.105 · 84.6 · 4.3% 27.3% 11.1% F B O D 30

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Luzardo — 0.157 · 87.4 · 6.7% 22.2% 15.1% F B O D 39

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Luzardo Edge +400 0.186 · 90.2 · 8.5% 16.7% 14.1% F B O D 45

· MIN Austin Martin vs Luzardo Edge — 0.090 · 87.1 · 4.4% 20.0% 7.0% F B O D 27

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Luzardo +525 0.228 · 92.4 · 8.3% 9.1% 15.9% F B O D 48

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Luzardo Edge +750 0.174 · 87.7 · 4.7% 9.1% 10.2% F B O D 37

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Prielipp +625 0.167 · 89.6 · 8.4% 8.3% 9.1% F B O D 44

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Prielipp Edge +575 0.151 · 88.4 · 7.4% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 41

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Prielipp Edge +700 0.130 · 90.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Luzardo Edge +850 0.108 · 89.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 29

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Prielipp +700 0.150 · 89.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 38

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Prielipp Edge +625 0.125 · 89.8 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· PHI Justin Crawford HOT vs Prielipp — 0.087 · 87.2 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 46.4% FB 42.3% OFF 11.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L

15.0% 18.1% 27.6% 18.2% C+ 66 +245

Bryce Harper L

14.4% 11.3% 6.2% 11.4% C 57 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

102

Brandon Marsh L

13.5% 7.3% 4.1% 8.5% D 44 +625

127

Trea Turner R Edge

4.5% 8.2% 2.5% 6.3% D 41 +575

150

Bryson Stott L

4.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.3% D 38 +700

155

Alec Bohm R Edge

6.5% 4.4% 8.8% 5.4% D 37 +700

179

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

7.0% 3.8% 4.8% 4.7% D 33 +625

208

Justin Crawford L

1.2% 2.1% 0.0% 1.5% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Prielipp's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.6% ← leak BRK 37.9% OFF 18.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Byron Buxton R Edge

19.2% 14.9% 13.8% 17.3% C 56 +320

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Kody Clemens L

8.7% 19.4% 10.4% 11.4% D 48 +525

Royce Lewis R Edge

15.1% 7.6% 7.7% 12.1% D 45 +400

105

Josh Bell S Edge

11.1% 12.9% 5.4% 10.2% D 43 +575

139

Trevor Larnach L

7.5% 9.1% 5.3% 7.5% D 39 —

154

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.9% 0.0% 1.1% 3.7% D 37 +750

189

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.2% 2.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 30 +950

194

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.9% 11.8% 5.9% 6.8% D 29 +850

207

Austin Martin R Edge

3.8% 2.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.6% usage) carries Luzardo's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Lewis Bell Larnach Keaschall Martin

Legend

attack side — vs Luzardo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +425 · 57

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph cross 68°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

68°F

6:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

67°F

7:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · slight_out

68°F

8:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

70°F

10:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 68°F, wind 6 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ +245 · 5 0.294 93.1 12.2% 41.9%vs LHP 404 23.0% 15.4% 29.1% 27

2 Bryce Harper 57 C +425 · 26 0.242 90.2 9.9% 12.5%vs LHP 403 19.5% 23.1% 21.1% 29

3 Brandon Marsh 44 D +625 · 102 0.167 89.6 8.4% 16.7%vs LHP 393 12.6% 8.3% 9.1% 38

4 Trea Turner 41 D +575 COOL 127 0.151 88.4 7.4% 8.8%vs LHP 392 13.9% 8.3% 8.9% 44

5 Bryson Stott 38 D +700 COOL 150 0.150 89.6 7.4% 7.7%vs LHP 389 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% 39

6 Alec Bohm 37 D +700 WARM 155 0.130 90.4 6.7% 16.7%vs LHP 396 10.6% 0.0% 8.7% 42

7 J.T. Realmuto 33 D +625 COOL 179 0.125 89.8 6.3% 4.3%vs LHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 29

8 Justin Crawford 27 D — HOT 208 0.087 87.2 3.6% 3.4% 382 2.3% 0.0% 5.8% 35

vs Jesús Luzardo · LHP 0.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 56 C +320 COOL 30 0.280 90.3 10.3% 26.1%vs LHP 402 28.0% 0.0% 20.9% 4

2 Kody Clemens 48 D +525 COOL 76 0.228 92.4 8.3% 26.1%vs LHP 391 16.9% 9.1% 15.9% 29

3 Royce Lewis 45 D +400 · 93 0.186 90.2 8.5% 22.2%vs LHP 400 16.5% 16.7% 14.1% 35

4 Josh Bell 43 D +575 WARM 105 0.170 90.0 7.8% 15.2%vs LHP 405 11.6% 27.3% 16.2% 38

5 Trevor Larnach 39 D — WARM 139 0.157 87.4 6.7% 25.0%vs LHP 397 9.5% 22.2% 15.1% 29

6 Brooks Lee 37 D +750 · 154 0.174 87.7 4.7% 13.3%vs LHP 371 14.4% 9.1% 10.2% 35

7 Luke Keaschall 30 D +950 WARM 189 0.105 84.6 4.3% 3.9%vs LHP 373 6.7% 27.3% 11.1% 32

8 Victor Caratini 29 D +850 COOL 194 0.108 89.6 6.4% 13.3%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 14

9 Austin Martin 27 D — WARM 207 0.090 87.1 4.4% 7.4%vs LHP 394 3.1% 20.0% 7.0% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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