TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ TOR

Playable air · 1.05×

NYY @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 11 mph slight_out 81°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

3:07p

+2 ↑

4:07p

+1 ↑

5:07p

+1 ↑

6:07p

+1 ↑

7:07p

best window is early — 3:07p at +2

Best of game Jesús Sánchez conv 12 · vs Schlittler ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 26 · vs Fisher → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 84

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jesús Sánchez +500 D ●●○○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

3 Ernie Clement +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Braydon Fisher RHP · TOR

leak 30

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham +370 C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +320 C+ ●●○○○

3 Jose Caballero — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.5% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Fisher Edge +370 0.194 · 90.7 · 10.0% 33.3% 19.1% F B O C 53

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Fisher Edge +320 0.282 · 92.1 · 12.3% 8.3% 16.1% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Schlittler Edge +500 0.164 · 90.8 · 9.7% 12.5% 12.2% F B O D 42

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Schlittler Edge — 0.102 · 86.7 · 3.2% 11.1% 7.1% F B O D 27

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Fisher — 0.148 · 83.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 17.8% F B O D 36

· NYY Austin Wells vs Fisher Edge +575 0.125 · 89.4 · 8.4% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 40

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Schlittler +950 0.124 · 84.7 · 4.5% 7.7% 7.1% F B O D 29

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Schlittler +400 0.204 · 90.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 14.7% F B O D 47

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Fisher — 0.203 · 86.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 49

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Fisher Edge — 0.175 · 90.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 43

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Schlittler +500 0.158 · 88.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 37

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Fisher Edge +500 0.158 · 91.1 · 10.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 44

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Schlittler — 0.093 · 90.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Schlittler — 0.112 · 85.9 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Schlittler Edge +950 0.120 · 85.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 79.2% ← leak FB 20.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

12.1% 18.1% 15.5% C+ 63 +320

Trent Grisham L Edge

7.7% 11.8% 10.2% C 53 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Paul Goldschmidt R

4.5% 13.9% 10.4% D 49 —

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

4.2% 12.6% 10.1% D 44 +500

107

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

13.6% 6.6% 8.9% D 43 —

137

Austin Wells L Edge

5.9% 9.3% 7.1% D 40 +575

159

Jose Caballero R

— — — D 36 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (79.2% usage) carries Fisher's damage — BRK is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 89.7% ← leak BRK 10.3% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R

14.5% 7.1% 12.3% D 47 +400

119

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.9% 18.3% 11.5% D 42 +500

153

George Springer R

7.6% 5.6% 6.9% D 37 +500

195

Vladimir Guerrero R

6.8% 9.1% 6.8% D 29 —

196

Ernie Clement R

2.5% 2.3% 2.4% D 29 +950

204

Myles Straw R

3.8% 0.0% 3.2% D 28 —

205

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.8% 2.2% 3.4% D 27 +950

206

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 3.5% 1.2% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (89.7% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Schlittler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Trent Grisham +370 · 53

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 11 mph slight_out 81°F retractable

↑

11 mph · slight_out

79°F

3:07p · peak

↑

10 mph · slight_out

80°F

4:07p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

81°F

5:07p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

79°F

6:07p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.05× 81°F, wind 11 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Braydon Fisher · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 63 C+ +320 COOL 9 0.282 92.1 12.3% 31.1%vs RHP 391 24.3% 8.3% 16.1% 26

2 Trent Grisham 53 C +370 · 48 0.194 90.7 10.0% 19.7%vs RHP 387 13.5% 33.3% 19.1% 35

3 Paul Goldschmidt 49 D — WARM 66 0.203 86.6 10.1% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 13.8% 9

4 Ryan Mcmahon 44 D +500 · 99 0.158 91.1 10.0% 20.0%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 9.2% 24

5 Jazz Chisholm 43 D — COOL 107 0.175 90.9 9.4% 26.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 22

6 Austin Wells 40 D +575 · 137 0.125 89.4 8.4% 14.6%vs RHP 387 9.5% 9.1% 7.3% 20

7 Jose Caballero 36 D — WARM 159 0.148 83.9 6.3% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 8

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 47 D +400 COOL 82 0.204 90.4 10.1% 28.4%vs RHP 397 16.8% 0.0% 14.7% 30

2 Jesús Sánchez 42 D +500 WARM 119 0.164 90.8 9.7% 19.6%vs RHP 398 10.6% 12.5% 12.2% 16

3 George Springer 37 D +500 COOL 153 0.158 88.5 7.6% 22.0%vs RHP 393 10.7% 0.0% 10.6% 33

4 Vladimir Guerrero 29 D — · 195 0.093 90.2 7.6% 12.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 37

5 Ernie Clement 29 D +950 COOL 196 0.124 84.7 4.5% 6.4%vs RHP 376 7.8% 7.7% 7.1% 46

6 Myles Straw 28 D — COOL 204 0.112 85.9 5.2% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 38

7 Andres Gimenez 27 D +950 COOL 205 0.120 85.8 5.3% 11.3%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 34

8 Nathan Lukes 27 D — WARM 206 0.102 86.7 3.2% 13.0%vs RHP 381 6.3% 11.1% 7.1% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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