TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.20×

COL @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 11 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

1:05p

+9 ↑

2:05p

+9 ↑

3:05p

+9 ↑

4:05p

+9 ↑

5:05p

the 2:05p window peaks +9

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 18 · vs Lorenzen ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 24 · vs Webb → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Michael Lorenzen RHP · COL

leak 93

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +350 C ●●●○○

2 Bryce Eldridge +425 C ●●●○○

3 Jung Hoo Lee +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 34

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman +400 C ●●●●○

2 Mickey Moniak +575 D ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Webb +400 0.290 · 90.6 · 9.6% 22.2% 26.5% F B O C 56

· SF Rafael Devers vs Lorenzen Edge +350 0.223 · 92.6 · 10.1% 16.7% 20.3% F B O C 54

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +425 0.185 · 92.0 · 10.5% 18.2% 15.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Webb Edge +575 0.278 · 89.3 · 7.8% 18.2% 18.6% F B O D 49

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Webb Edge +750 0.159 · 87.6 · 6.9% 18.2% 10.1% F B O D 36

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Lorenzen Edge +850 0.144 · 86.9 · 4.9% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 35

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Lorenzen +500 0.189 · 87.2 · 8.8% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Webb +950 0.126 · 87.4 · 6.0% 11.1% 6.5% F B O D 30

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Lorenzen Edge +750 0.124 · 86.2 · 5.9% 10.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Webb Edge — 0.205 · 85.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 35

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Webb Edge +950 0.159 · 83.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 29

· COL Troy Johnston vs Webb Edge — 0.105 · 89.6 · 3.2% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.7% ← leak OFF 24.9% BRK 19.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Hunter Goodman R

18.9% 9.4% 15.7% 16.7% C 56 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.6% 2.0% 21.7% 10.5% D 49 +575

165

Willi Castro S Edge

11.4% 5.5% 5.9% 8.6% D 36 +750

169

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 6.1% 1.3% 5.0% D 35 —

193

Ezequiel Tovar R

6.2% 7.4% 6.8% 6.5% D 30 +950

198

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.3% 5.5% 1.9% 4.3% D 29 +950

210

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.5% 0.0% 2.4% 1.9% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.0% ← leak BRK 26.5% OFF 20.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.3% 9.9% 8.1% 10.9% C 54 +350

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.3% 7.7% 16.1% 12.0% C 50 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Willy Adames R

7.5% 8.4% 13.8% 8.3% D 45 +500

174

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% D 35 +850

183

Drew Gilbert L Edge

4.7% 4.3% 0.0% 3.8% D 33 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.0% usage) carries Lorenzen's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Devers Eldridge Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Lorenzen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Hunter Goodman +400 · 56

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 11 mph out 71°F open

↑

11 mph · out

70°F

1:05p

↑

13 mph · out

73°F

2:05p · peak

↑

13 mph · out

73°F

3:05p

↑

13 mph · out

72°F

4:05p

↑

13 mph · out

72°F

5:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 71°F, wind 11 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 56 C +400 · 33 0.290 90.6 9.6% 39.7%vs RHP 410 23.8% 22.2% 26.5% 27

2 Mickey Moniak 49 D +575 · 74 0.278 89.3 7.8% 24.3%vs RHP 417 17.3% 18.2% 18.6% 30

3 Willi Castro 36 D +750 COOL 165 0.159 87.6 6.9% 17.2%vs RHP 411 10.9% 18.2% 10.1% 33

4 Jake Mccarthy 35 D — COOL 169 0.205 85.1 5.3% 15.8%vs RHP 416 12.5% 0.0% 12.7% 50

5 Ezequiel Tovar 30 D +950 COOL 193 0.126 87.4 6.0% 15.0%vs RHP 408 7.6% 11.1% 6.5% 27

6 Tj Rumfield 29 D +950 WARM 198 0.159 83.9 5.0% 15.2%vs RHP 410 6.2% 0.0% 8.0% 37

7 Troy Johnston 22 D — WARM 210 0.105 89.6 3.2% 7.0%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 5.8% 14

vs Michael Lorenzen · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.42 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 54 C +350 WARM 45 0.223 92.6 10.1% 26.7%vs RHP 398 17.6% 16.7% 20.3% 30

2 Bryce Eldridge 50 C +425 COOL 65 0.185 92.0 10.5% 21.3%vs RHP 399 20.0% 18.2% 15.3% 31

3 Willy Adames 45 D +500 COOL 98 0.189 87.2 8.8% 20.2%vs RHP 387 14.4% 8.3% 10.3% 28

4 Jung Hoo Lee 35 D +850 WARM 174 0.144 86.9 4.9% 13.1%vs RHP 382 6.3% 16.7% 11.1% 45

5 Drew Gilbert 33 D +750 WARM 183 0.124 86.2 5.9% 12.5%vs RHP 399 4.2% 10.0% 7.4% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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