TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.86×

CWS @ DET

Comerica Park · 1:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 7 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-8 ↑

1:10p

-7 ↑

2:10p

-7 ↑

3:10p

-6 ↑

4:10p

-5 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 5:10p window peaks -5

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 24 · vs Kay ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 29 · vs Melton → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 89

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Gleyber Torres +700 D ●●●○○

3 Kevin Mcgonigle +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 78

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami +265 C+ ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +400 C ●●●●○

3 Chase Meidroth +950 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Melton Edge +265 0.297 · 94.2 · 10.8% 27.3% 31.5% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Melton +400 0.235 · 90.6 · 8.9% 27.3% 22.0% F B O C 56

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Kay Edge +500 0.245 · 88.9 · 9.9% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Melton Edge +350 0.223 · 88.9 · 8.5% 8.3% 15.4% F B O C 51

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Kay Edge +425 0.196 · 89.5 · 10.6% 0.0% 11.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Kay Edge +700 0.135 · 86.0 · 8.2% 25.0% 13.9% F B O D 44

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Melton +950 0.139 · 87.8 · 5.2% 20.0% 13.2% F B O D 37

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Kay +700 0.140 · 87.9 · 7.7% 25.0% 7.0% F B O D 43

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Melton Edge +525 0.179 · 88.8 · 7.1% 16.7% 11.8% F B O D 43

· CWS Edgar Quero HOT vs Melton Edge — 0.054 · 90.6 · 4.0% 20.0% 8.2% F B O D 29

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Melton Edge +850 0.148 · 87.1 · 5.2% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 36

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Melton Edge +850 0.137 · 89.0 · 4.5% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 34

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Melton Edge +750 0.129 · 87.6 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Kay — 0.145 · 88.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 40

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Kay — 0.106 · 85.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.1% ← leak BRK 22.6% OFF 11.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.3% 18.8% 17.4% 20.4% C+ 63 +265

Miguel Vargas R

15.6% 11.7% 11.4% 14.0% C 56 +400

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.4% 11.9% 15.0% 12.7% C 51 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

116

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.6% 4.5% 5.6% 8.8% D 43 +525

158

Chase Meidroth R

4.3% 5.9% 4.1% 4.7% D 37 +950

166

Tristan Peters L Edge

5.7% 5.3% 0.0% 4.7% D 36 +850

177

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.3% 3.6% 2.4% 3.6% D 34 +850

178

Sam Antonacci L Edge

7.6% 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% D 34 +750

199

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.1% 0.0% 5.9% 2.7% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.1% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.2% ← leak BRK 27.9% OFF 13.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R Edge

12.8% 9.2% 6.8% 11.1% C+ 60 +500

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

13.6% 11.4% 13.0% 13.0% C 51 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

103

Gleyber Torres R Edge

9.2% 6.5% 0.0% 7.7% D 44 +700

117

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.0% 6.7% 1.6% 6.7% D 43 +700

138

Colt Keith L

6.7% 14.0% 3.2% 7.1% D 40 —

186

Zach Mckinstry L

3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.2% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Benintendi Meidroth Quero Dingler Torres Mcgonigle

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Munetaka Murakami +265 · 63

Miguel Vargas +400 · 56

Dillon Dingler +500 · 60

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 7 mph in 76°F open

-8

↑

7 mph · in

74°F

1:10p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

2:10p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

75°F

3:10p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

4:10p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

5:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.86× 76°F, wind 7 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Troy Melton · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 63 C+ +265 · 10 0.297 94.2 10.8% 36.8%vs RHP 403 19.7% 27.3% 31.5% 24

2 Miguel Vargas 56 C +400 · 34 0.235 90.6 8.9% 16.1%vs RHP 392 21.4% 27.3% 22.0% 33

3 Colson Montgomery 51 C +350 COOL 60 0.223 88.9 8.5% 26.5%vs RHP 399 22.2% 8.3% 15.4% 27

4 Andrew Benintendi 43 D +525 WARM 116 0.179 88.8 7.1% 16.9%vs RHP 389 14.1% 16.7% 11.8% 19

5 Chase Meidroth 37 D +950 COOL 158 0.139 87.8 5.2% 17.4%vs RHP 379 8.8% 20.0% 13.2% 29

6 Tristan Peters 36 D +850 COOL 166 0.148 87.1 5.2% 9.4%vs RHP 377 8.3% 16.7% 8.8% 19

7 Braden Montgomery 34 D +850 WARM 177 0.137 89.0 4.5% 15.8%vs RHP 383 5.9% 9.1% 8.3% 24

8 Sam Antonacci 34 D +750 COOL 178 0.129 87.6 5.8% 14.0%vs RHP 390 9.7% 0.0% 7.8% 32

9 Edgar Quero 29 D — HOT 199 0.054 90.6 4.0% 0.0%vs RHP 385 5.8% 20.0% 8.2% 15

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 60 C+ +500 · 17 0.245 88.9 9.9% 19.2%vs LHP 398 20.4% 25.0% 23.9% 42

2 Spencer Torkelson 51 C +425 COOL 61 0.196 89.5 10.6% 10.0%vs LHP 394 15.3% 0.0% 11.7% 34

3 Gleyber Torres 44 D +700 · 103 0.135 86.0 8.2% 15.4%vs LHP 393 10.5% 25.0% 13.9% 38

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 43 D +700 COOL 117 0.140 87.9 7.7% 8.1%vs LHP 396 20.0% 25.0% 7.0% 41

5 Colt Keith 40 D — COOL 138 0.145 88.6 7.9% 9.2% 389 6.0% 0.0% 7.4% 26

6 Zach Mckinstry 32 D — WARM 186 0.106 85.6 4.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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