TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.75×

SEA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 12 mph out 94°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+19 ↑

6:10p

+19 ↑

7:10p

+19 ↑

8:10p

+18 ↑

9:10p

+16 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +19

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 22 · vs Wesneski ⟷ Cam Smith conv 19 · vs Hancock → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 91

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena +525 C ●●●○○

2 Julio Rodríguez +425 C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +390 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 81

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith +575 C ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker +425 C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña +575 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Wesneski +525 0.175 · 91.0 · 8.1% 25.0% 18.0% F B O C 55

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Wesneski +425 0.169 · 90.0 · 8.7% 25.0% 16.5% F B O C 56

· HOU Cam Smith vs Hancock +575 0.170 · 89.6 · 9.9% 18.2% 20.4% F B O C 55

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ COOL vs Wesneski Edge +390 0.239 · 91.6 · 10.6% 8.3% 21.7% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Christian Walker vs Hancock +425 0.213 · 89.4 · 8.8% 9.1% 16.1% F B O C 57

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Hancock +575 0.184 · 88.3 · 6.6% 8.3% 14.6% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Hancock Edge +245 0.299 · 94.5 · 12.3% 0.0% 20.9% F B O C+ 65

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Wesneski Edge +320 0.137 · 89.1 · 10.4% 9.1% 10.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Wesneski Edge +575 0.107 · 87.8 · 6.3% 10.0% 13.3% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Wesneski Edge +625 0.140 · 89.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 46

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Hancock +475 0.161 · 86.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 46

· HOU Yainer Diaz COOL vs Hancock +750 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 45

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Hancock +750 0.151 · 85.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Hancock — 0.108 · 85.9 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.9% ← leak BRK 30.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dominic Canzone L Edge

16.2% 13.0% 13.5% C+ 63 +390

Julio Rodríguez R

9.2% 8.2% 8.9% C 56 +425

Randy Arozarena R

8.1% 7.5% 7.8% C 55 +525

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.6% 16.3% 12.8% C 52 +320

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Cole Young L Edge

4.3% 9.0% 4.9% D 46 +625

106

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.3% 8.5% 4.8% D 43 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.9% usage) carries Wesneski's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 74.6% ← leak BRK 20.2% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.4% 23.4% 10.1% 18.1% C+ 65 +245

Christian Walker R

8.2% 9.8% 13.9% 9.4% C 57 +425

Cam Smith R

9.8% 15.2% 17.2% 11.8% C 55 +575

Jeremy Peña R

3.6% 7.2% 10.0% 5.3% C 50 +575

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

7.1% 3.2% 1.9% 5.3% D 46 +475

Yainer Diaz R

6.3% 3.1% 6.5% 5.2% D 45 +750

118

Jose Altuve R

6.1% 4.8% 0.0% 5.1% D 42 +750

168

Christian Vazquez R

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (74.6% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Rodríguez Arozarena Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Wesneski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Randy Arozarena +525 · 55

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.17× Wind 12 mph out 94°F retractable

+19

↑

12 mph · out

94°F

6:10p · peak

+19

↑

12 mph · out

91°F

7:10p

+19

↑

12 mph · out

89°F

8:10p

+18

↑

11 mph · out

86°F

9:10p

+16

↑

10 mph · out

84°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.75× 94°F, wind 12 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.03 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 63 C+ +390 COOL 8 0.239 91.6 10.6% 27.1%vs RHP 402 16.3% 8.3% 21.7% 36

2 Julio Rodríguez 56 C +425 · 32 0.169 90.0 8.7% 20.4%vs RHP 405 17.2% 25.0% 16.5% 29

3 Randy Arozarena 55 C +525 · 36 0.175 91.0 8.1% 25.0%vs RHP 386 13.5% 25.0% 18.0% 36

4 Cal Raleigh 52 C +320 WARM 55 0.137 89.1 10.4% 12.1%vs RHP 395 12.4% 9.1% 10.3% 22

5 Cole Young 46 D +625 COOL 86 0.140 89.0 6.4% 17.1%vs RHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 11.3% 41

6 Josh Naylor 43 D +575 WARM 106 0.107 87.8 6.3% 11.9%vs RHP 392 7.0% 10.0% 13.3% 30

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 65 C+ +245 · 6 0.299 94.5 12.3% 26.5%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 37

2 Christian Walker 57 C +425 · 28 0.213 89.4 8.8% 24.7%vs RHP 391 18.4% 9.1% 16.1% 35

3 Cam Smith 55 C +575 · 35 0.170 89.6 9.9% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.8% 18.2% 20.4% 29

4 Jeremy Peña 50 C +575 COOL 63 0.184 88.3 6.6% 30.0%vs RHP 385 14.1% 8.3% 14.6% 34

5 Isaac Paredes 46 D +475 COOL 88 0.161 86.1 6.6% 17.6%vs RHP 377 11.2% 0.0% 11.2% 42

6 Yainer Diaz 45 D +750 COOL 94 0.145 87.7 6.6% 25.8%vs RHP 398 10.3% 0.0% 11.1% 22

7 Jose Altuve 42 D +750 COOL 118 0.151 85.6 6.5% 22.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 37

8 Christian Vazquez 35 D — COOL 168 0.108 85.9 3.2% 12.5%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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