TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TB

Neutral air · 1.05×

BAL @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 35 · vs Bradish ⟷ Colton Cowser conv 21 · vs Seymour → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 80

0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios +950 D ●○○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 39

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colton Cowser — D ●●●○○

2 Pete Alonso +350 C+ ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +525 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 36.5% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Bradish +320 0.272 · 93.0 · 10.4% 33.3% 36.5% F B O C+ 68

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Seymour Edge +350 0.221 · 94.2 · 11.6% 16.7% 23.3% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Gunnar Henderson HOT vs Seymour +525 0.175 · 89.8 · 8.4% 16.7% 20.4% F B O C 51

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Seymour Edge +370 0.220 · 92.3 · 10.5% 12.5% 17.3% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser HOT vs Seymour — 0.126 · 87.0 · 10.0% 25.0% 17.7% F B O D 48

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Seymour Edge +850 0.141 · 87.8 · 6.6% 11.1% 12.5% F B O D 41

· TB Richie Palacios vs Bradish Edge +950 0.113 · 86.2 · 5.7% 10.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Bradish Edge +575 0.146 · 90.8 · 8.7% 9.1% 9.5% F B O D 46

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Bradish Edge — 0.083 · 85.4 · 4.2% 9.1% 9.1% F B O D 32

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Bradish +625 0.164 · 90.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 41

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Bradish Edge +625 0.149 · 87.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 40

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Bradish — 0.105 · 85.5 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 33

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Bradish Edge — 0.058 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.2% ← leak OFF 31.0% BRK 26.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.7% 16.2% 9.6% 14.0% C+ 61 +350

Coby Mayo R Edge

9.8% 15.4% 12.7% 11.6% C 55 +370

Gunnar Henderson L

7.6% 8.1% 6.7% 7.4% C 51 +525

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L

15.0% 2.2% 10.5% 10.4% D 48 —

125

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.2% 0.0% 7.7% 4.6% D 41 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (40.2% usage) carries Seymour's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.2% BRK 47.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.3% 12.3% 13.7% C+ 68 +320

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.9% 13.7% 9.8% D 46 +575

123

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 10.8% 7.0% D 41 +625

133

Cedric Mullins L Edge

2.9% 3.1% 3.6% D 40 +625

156

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.4% 1.9% 4.1% D 37 +950

181

Nick Fortes R

2.9% 1.8% 2.3% D 33 —

185

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.2% 0.0% 2.3% D 32 —

211

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Henderson Cowser Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +320 · 68

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +350 WARM 15 0.221 94.2 11.6% 16.7%vs LHP 402 19.0% 16.7% 23.3% 32

2 Coby Mayo 55 C +370 COOL 38 0.220 92.3 10.5% 39.3%vs LHP 407 15.6% 12.5% 17.3% 23

3 Gunnar Henderson 51 C +525 HOT 59 0.175 89.8 8.4% 30.4%vs LHP 391 16.0% 16.7% 20.4% 31

4 Colton Cowser 48 D — HOT 80 0.126 87.0 10.0% 20.0%vs LHP 419 14.5% 25.0% 17.7% 16

5 Leody Taveras 41 D +850 · 125 0.141 87.8 6.6% 7.7%vs LHP 405 4.8% 11.1% 12.5% 25

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.94 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 68 C+ +320 · 2 0.272 93.0 10.4% 42.4%vs RHP 413 27.1% 33.3% 36.5% 37

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D +575 COOL 91 0.146 90.8 8.7% 17.2%vs RHP 386 11.5% 9.1% 9.5% 39

3 Yandy Diaz 41 D +625 · 123 0.164 90.9 7.4% 22.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 47

4 Cedric Mullins 40 D +625 COOL 133 0.149 87.7 5.3% 20.0%vs RHP 389 12.5% 0.0% 10.1% 27

5 Richie Palacios 37 D +950 WARM 156 0.113 86.2 5.7% 13.2%vs RHP 398 4.5% 10.0% 8.6% 19

6 Nick Fortes 33 D — COOL 181 0.105 85.5 4.2% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 8.7% 12

7 Taylor Walls 32 D — COOL 185 0.083 85.4 4.2% 2.7%vs RHP 383 1.0% 9.1% 9.1% 30

8 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 211 0.058 83.9 — 2.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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