TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.40×

MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 9 mph out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

4:15p

+12 ↑

5:15p

+11 ↑

6:15p

+11 ↑

7:15p

+10 ↑

8:15p

best window is early — 4:15p at +12

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 28 · vs Wrobleski ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 23 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Jackson Chourio

ATTACK Justin Wrobleski LHP · LAD

leak 95

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +350 C+ ●●●○○

3 Christian Yelich — D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 75

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +290 C ●●●●○

2 Max Muncy +425 C ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jackson Chourio: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 28.6% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jackson Chourio ✶ vs Wrobleski Edge +330 0.197 · 92.1 · 11.0% 28.6% 27.5% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +290 0.252 · 93.4 · 8.3% 15.4% 30.9% F B O C 59

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Wrobleski +350 0.228 · 92.8 · 11.1% 15.4% 24.9% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Max Muncy vs Misiorowski Edge +425 0.239 · 90.1 · 7.4% 12.5% 19.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Misiorowski +625 0.177 · 90.5 · 5.7% 16.7% 13.6% F B O D 44

· LAD Andy Pages vs Misiorowski +525 0.181 · 89.0 · 5.7% 15.4% 14.1% F B O D 45

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +625 0.140 · 88.8 · 5.1% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 39

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Wrobleski — 0.141 · 88.5 · 9.1% 9.1% 11.3% F B O D 46

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Misiorowski +575 0.153 · 89.5 · 6.1% 0.0% 16.4% F B O D 38

· MIL William Contreras vs Wrobleski Edge +500 0.120 · 89.9 · 8.1% 7.7% 7.4% F B O D 43

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Wrobleski — 0.152 · 92.8 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 49

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Wrobleski — 0.180 · 90.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 49

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +575 0.165 · 89.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 41

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Wrobleski — 0.087 · 86.5 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.9% ← leak BRK 36.5% OFF 5.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L

14.4% 12.9% 14.7% 14.0% C+ 62 +350

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.9% 15.4% 3.2% 13.1% C+ 61 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L

15.9% 10.8% 6.7% 13.1% D 49 —

Brice Turang L

9.4% 9.8% 1.7% 8.1% D 49 —

Christian Yelich L

8.6% 10.0% 12.0% 9.4% D 46 —

115

William Contreras R Edge

7.8% 9.0% 0.0% 7.4% D 43 +500

161

David Hamilton L

3.1% 6.8% 0.0% 3.6% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.9% usage) carries Wrobleski's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 76.5% ← leak BRK 21.8% OFF 1.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.1% 10.1% 17.0% 16.5% C 59 +290

Max Muncy L Edge

15.2% 14.8% 7.6% 13.1% C 54 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andy Pages R

7.4% 7.8% 8.6% 7.6% D 45 +525

101

Mookie Betts R

9.5% 3.1% 6.1% 7.7% D 44 +625

126

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.1% 8.7% 8.5% 8.9% D 41 +575

142

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.1% 3.1% 1.4% 6.2% D 39 +625

146

Teoscar Hernandez R

8.5% 11.4% 6.9% 8.9% D 38 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.5% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Ohtani Muncy Pages Betts Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Wrobleski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jackson Chourio +330 · 61

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 4:15p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 9 mph out 81°F open

+12

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

4:15p · peak

+12

↑

9 mph · out

80°F

5:15p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

6:15p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

7:15p

+10

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

8:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.40× 81°F, wind 9 mph SW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Justin Wrobleski · LHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 62 C+ +350 · 11 0.228 92.8 11.1% 18.2%vs LHP 401 19.4% 15.4% 24.9% 29

2 Jackson Chourio ✶ 61 C+ +330 WARM 14 0.197 92.1 11.0% 41.7%vs LHP 401 16.9% 28.6% 27.5% 35

3 Garrett Mitchell 49 D — COOL 69 0.152 92.8 10.8% 18.2% 415 7.1% 0.0% 11.9% 26

4 Brice Turang 49 D — COOL 70 0.180 90.5 8.4% 5.9%vs LHP 407 10.9% 0.0% 11.7% 31

5 Christian Yelich 46 D — · 87 0.141 88.5 9.1% 20.0%vs LHP 401 7.3% 9.1% 11.3% 28

6 William Contreras 43 D +500 WARM 115 0.120 89.9 8.1% 8.0%vs LHP 417 9.0% 7.7% 7.4% 38

7 David Hamilton 36 D — COOL 161 0.087 86.5 5.7% 5.0% 383 3.7% 0.0% 8.4% 27

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 59 C +290 COOL 18 0.252 93.4 8.3% 23.4%vs RHP 403 19.5% 15.4% 30.9% 36

2 Max Muncy 54 C +425 · 42 0.239 90.1 7.4% 25.0%vs RHP 411 18.4% 12.5% 19.9% 37

3 Andy Pages 45 D +525 · 97 0.181 89.0 5.7% 19.7%vs RHP 392 14.2% 15.4% 14.1% 41

4 Mookie Betts 44 D +625 · 101 0.177 90.5 5.7% 18.2%vs RHP 390 11.2% 16.7% 13.6% 40

5 Freddie Freeman 41 D +575 COOL 126 0.165 89.8 6.1% 15.9%vs RHP 398 10.9% 0.0% 11.3% 36

6 Kyle Tucker 39 D +625 COOL 142 0.140 88.8 5.1% 11.8%vs RHP 392 7.8% 16.7% 10.4% 35

7 Teoscar Hernandez 38 D +575 WARM 146 0.153 89.5 6.1% 18.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 16.4% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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