TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ NYM

Neutral air · 1.04×

WSH @ NYM

Citi Field · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

+3 ↑

6:10p

+4 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 7:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 24 · vs Lord ⟷ Daylen Lile conv 14 · vs Manaea → edge: Francisco Lindor

ATTACK Brad Lord RHP · WSH

leak 95

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +400 D ●●●●○

2 Brett Baty +525 D ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 93

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Daylen Lile +575 D ●●○○○

2 Dylan Crews +400 D ●○○○○

3 Cj Abrams +400 C ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Francisco Lindor: Match 22.7% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Manaea +400 0.256 · 89.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor ✶ vs Lord Edge +400 0.191 · 91.4 · 7.9% 25.0% 22.7% F B O D 49

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Lord Edge +525 0.114 · 89.8 · 7.6% 28.6% 14.5% F B O D 39

· NYM Carson Benge vs Lord Edge +700 0.139 · 89.5 · 7.1% 18.2% 10.2% F B O D 40

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Lord +750 0.144 · 86.5 · 6.8% 18.2% 9.4% F B O D 40

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Manaea +575 0.169 · 88.4 · 8.7% 16.7% 10.4% F B O D 44

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Lord +850 0.118 · 89.4 · 6.3% 16.7% 7.1% F B O D 36

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Manaea Edge +400 0.154 · 90.6 · 9.7% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 45

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.158 · 88.3 · 7.6% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 40

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Lord +475 0.181 · 90.1 · 10.4% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 43

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Manaea Edge — 0.165 · 88.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Lord Edge +750 0.132 · 89.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Manaea Edge — 0.037 · 84.9 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.5% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 3.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L

10.7% 9.4% 12.5% 10.5% C 55 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R Edge

6.6% 22.2% 14.3% 10.4% D 45 +400

100

Daylen Lile L

7.4% 13.1% 4.7% 8.4% D 44 +575

135

Jacob Young R Edge

8.2% 3.8% 2.9% 6.3% D 40 —

141

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

5.9% 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% D 39 —

212

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.5% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.1% BRK 35.7% OFF 5.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.9% 6.1% 6.5% 9.6% D 49 +400

104

Francisco Alvarez R

17.2% 15.7% 17.4% 16.7% D 43 +475

132

Carson Benge L Edge

7.3% 9.6% 6.7% 7.7% D 40 +700

134

Marcus Semien R

9.8% 2.2% 7.1% 7.1% D 40 +750

140

Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 13.2% 4.1% 8.4% D 39 +525

163

Bo Bichette R

5.0% 10.3% 0.0% 6.1% D 36 +850

175

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.2% 9.6% 2.4% 7.4% D 34 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Lord's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lile Lindor Benge Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Lord fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Francisco Lindor +400 · 49

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph out 82°F open

↑

2 mph · out

81°F

4:10p

↑

3 mph · out

82°F

5:10p

↑

4 mph · out

80°F

6:10p

↑

5 mph · out

77°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 82°F, wind 2 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 55 C +400 COOL 37 0.256 89.7 9.7% 24.0%vs LHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 17.8% 31

2 Dylan Crews 45 D +400 · 96 0.154 90.6 9.7% 21.7%vs LHP 407 17.2% 8.3% 9.6% 33

3 Daylen Lile 44 D +575 WARM 100 0.169 88.4 8.7% 4.3%vs LHP 400 10.2% 16.7% 10.4% 36

4 Jacob Young 40 D — COOL 135 0.158 88.3 7.6% 11.1%vs LHP 399 8.2% 9.1% 8.6% 31

5 Keibert Ruiz 39 D — · 141 0.165 88.5 6.4% 23.1%vs LHP 377 8.8% 0.0% 10.5% 28

6 Nasim Nunez 19 D — COOL 212 0.037 84.9 1.9% 5.9%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 31

vs Brad Lord · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor ✶ 49 D +400 · 71 0.191 91.4 7.9% 18.6%vs RHP 396 13.6% 25.0% 22.7% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 43 D +475 · 104 0.181 90.1 10.4% 28.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 17

3 Carson Benge 40 D +700 WARM 132 0.139 89.5 7.1% 15.2%vs RHP 401 9.3% 18.2% 10.2% 37

4 Marcus Semien 40 D +750 COOL 134 0.144 86.5 6.8% 17.5%vs RHP 391 12.1% 18.2% 9.4% 36

5 Brett Baty 39 D +525 HOT 140 0.114 89.8 7.6% 13.3%vs RHP 397 7.3% 28.6% 14.5% 13

6 Bo Bichette 36 D +850 · 163 0.118 89.4 6.3% 10.1%vs RHP 389 9.2% 16.7% 7.1% 39

7 A.J. Ewing 34 D +750 WARM 175 0.132 89.6 7.0% 12.2%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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