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Great American Ball Park is live · 1.19×

MIA @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:10p

+6 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

+1 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +8

Best of game Owen Caissie conv 15 · vs Burns ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 30 · vs Alcantara → edge: Sal Stewart

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 88

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Owen Caissie +525 C ●●○○○

2 Javier Sanoja +750 D ●○○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +325 D ●○○○○

FADE Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 68

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +440 C ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson +500 C ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +525 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Sal Stewart: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Sal Stewart ✶ vs Alcantara +440 0.215 · 90.3 · 8.8% 33.3% 27.0% F B O C 59

· CIN Tyler Stephenson HOT vs Alcantara +500 0.159 · 91.2 · 8.4% 37.5% 19.0% F B O C 51

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Alcantara Edge +525 0.222 · 93.8 · 8.9% 16.7% 19.2% F B O C 57

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Burns Edge +525 0.197 · 91.1 · 10.6% 11.1% 19.3% F B O C 54

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Alcantara Edge +390 0.230 · 88.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 23.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CIN Eugenio Suarez HOT vs Alcantara +390 0.207 · 88.6 · 8.4% 0.0% 27.5% F B O D 49

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Burns +750 0.135 · 86.7 · 4.0% 10.0% 6.2% F B O D 36

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Alcantara — 0.148 · 87.8 · 7.6% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 43

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Burns +325 0.226 · 91.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 49

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Alcantara Edge — 0.081 · 87.4 · 3.8% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 33

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Burns Edge +525 0.103 · 87.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Burns +500 0.148 · 89.0 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Burns Edge +600 0.105 · 86.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.4% ← leak BRK 38.3% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Owen Caissie L Edge

16.7% 7.5% 18.8% 14.6% C 54 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

11.5% 12.5% 16.7% 12.3% D 49 +325

120

Otto Lopez R

8.9% 4.1% 1.6% 6.0% D 41 +500

145

Javier Sanoja R

2.5% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% D 36 +750

157

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.9% 1.9% 8.1% 3.4% D 34 +525

159

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.5% 2.4% 2.9% 3.7% D 34 +600

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.4% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.2% ← leak OFF 20.4% BRK 19.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R

16.9% 10.0% 9.3% 13.5% C 59 +440

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.9% 5.1% 10.0% 13.5% C 57 +525

Jj Bleday L Edge

12.9% 5.7% 7.1% 10.0% C 52 +390

Tyler Stephenson R

16.0% 5.9% 6.3% 12.2% C 51 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

14.5% 5.9% 7.7% 12.3% D 49 +390

105

Matt Mclain R

12.0% 0.0% 9.3% 10.0% D 43 —

167

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.7% 0.0% 4.0% 2.5% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.2% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caissie Stewart Cruz Stephenson Suarez

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +440 · 59

Tyler Stephenson +500 · 51

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph slight_out 83°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

80°F

6:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

75°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · in

75°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 83°F, wind 3 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chase Burns · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 54 C +525 COOL 40 0.197 91.1 10.6% 26.1%vs RHP 398 15.3% 11.1% 19.3% 17

2 Heriberto Hernández 49 D +325 COOL 65 0.226 91.7 9.7% 18.6%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 22

3 Otto Lopez 41 D +500 COOL 120 0.148 89.0 6.8% 10.9%vs RHP 402 6.8% 0.0% 7.9% 47

4 Javier Sanoja 36 D +750 WARM 145 0.135 86.7 4.0% 2.6%vs RHP 383 5.1% 10.0% 6.2% 35

5 Jakob Marsee 34 D +525 COOL 157 0.103 87.0 5.1% 7.9%vs RHP 380 6.2% 0.0% 8.5% 30

6 Xavier Edwards 34 D +600 COOL 159 0.105 86.9 5.3% 2.9%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% 38

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart ✶ 59 C +440 · 18 0.215 90.3 8.8% 24.1%vs RHP 395 17.1% 33.3% 27.0% 35

2 Elly De La Cruz 57 C +525 COOL 23 0.222 93.8 8.9% 21.4%vs RHP 396 17.0% 16.7% 19.2% 33

3 Jj Bleday 52 C +390 · 49 0.230 88.7 7.8% 23.8%vs RHP 388 20.0% 0.0% 23.2% 29

4 Tyler Stephenson 51 C +500 HOT 55 0.159 91.2 8.4% 19.6%vs RHP 392 9.7% 37.5% 19.0% 21

5 Eugenio Suarez 49 D +390 HOT 64 0.207 88.6 8.4% 29.5%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 27.5% 21

6 Matt Mclain 43 D — WARM 105 0.148 87.8 7.6% 10.7%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 26

7 Tj Friedl 33 D — COOL 167 0.081 87.4 3.8% 7.1%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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