TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ DET

Playable air · 1.06×

CWS @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 6 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

-1 ↑

8:40p

+0 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +0

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 28 · vs Proxy ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 29 · vs Newcomb → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK DET Bullpen Proxy · DET

leak 40

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +265 B ●●●●○

2 Andrew Benintendi +525 D ●●●●○

3 Miguel Vargas +390 C+ ●●●●○

FADE Sean Newcomb LHP · CWS

leak 25

0.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +430 C ●●●●○

2 Kevin Mcgonigle +650 D ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres +700 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 28.2% · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Newcomb Edge +430 0.247 · 88.9 · 8.3% 33.3% 23.9% F B O C 55

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Proxy +265 0.298 · 94.2 · 20.4% 27.3% 28.2% F B O B 74

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Proxy +390 0.237 · 90.6 · 14.1% 27.3% 22.5% F B O C+ 63

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Proxy +340 0.225 · 88.9 · 12.6% 16.7% 20.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Proxy +525 0.181 · 88.8 · 8.8% 33.3% 16.6% F B O D 48

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Newcomb +650 0.141 · 87.9 · 6.4% 40.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Newcomb Edge +700 0.136 · 86.0 · 6.9% 25.0% 12.0% F B O D 38

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Proxy — 0.135 · 87.8 · 4.7% 20.0% 12.8% F B O D 36

· CWS Edgar Quero HOT vs Proxy — 0.056 · 90.6 · 2.8% 20.0% 8.7% F B O D 29

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Proxy +700 0.139 · 89.0 · 3.5% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 34

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Newcomb Edge +360 0.197 · 89.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Proxy +800 0.150 · 87.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 35

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Proxy +900 0.131 · 87.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 35

· DET Colt Keith vs Newcomb — 0.145 · 88.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 35

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Newcomb — 0.108 · 85.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for DET Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 59.8% BRK 35.9% OFF 2.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R Edge

12.9% 9.2% 7.0% 11.2% C 55 +430

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

13.6% 11.4% 13.0% 13.0% D 45 +360

131

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.0% 6.7% 1.6% 6.7% D 39 +650

134

Gleyber Torres R Edge

9.2% 6.5% 0.0% 7.7% D 38 +700

155

Colt Keith L

6.7% 14.0% 3.2% 7.1% D 35 —

191

Zach Mckinstry L

3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Newcomb's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Benintendi Meidroth Quero Dingler Mcgonigle Torres

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Dillon Dingler +430 · 55

Munetaka Murakami +265 · 74

Miguel Vargas +390 · 63

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 6 mph cross 81°F open

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

80°F

6:40p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

77°F

7:40p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

8:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 81°F, wind 6 mph E (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs DET Bullpen Proxy 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 74 B +265 · 2 0.298 94.2 20.4% 32.5% 403 18.5% 27.3% 28.2% 26

2 Miguel Vargas 63 C+ +390 · 17 0.237 90.6 14.1% 15.3% 392 20.6% 27.3% 22.5% 31

3 Colson Montgomery 58 C +340 COOL 36 0.225 88.9 12.6% 19.5% 399 22.4% 16.7% 20.8% 26

4 Andrew Benintendi 48 D +525 WARM 96 0.181 88.8 8.8% 13.0% 389 14.3% 33.3% 16.6% 19

5 Chase Meidroth 36 D — COOL 170 0.135 87.8 4.7% 15.2% 379 8.9% 20.0% 12.8% 27

6 Tristan Peters 35 D +800 COOL 174 0.150 87.1 4.7% 6.7% 377 7.2% 0.0% 7.4% 18

7 Sam Antonacci 35 D +900 COOL 175 0.131 87.6 5.9% 11.1% 390 9.9% 0.0% 7.0% 36

8 Braden Montgomery 34 D +700 · 180 0.139 89.0 3.5% 11.8% 383 6.1% 9.1% 7.4% 23

9 Edgar Quero 29 D — HOT 194 0.056 90.6 2.8% 6.8% 385 5.8% 20.0% 8.7% 15

vs Sean Newcomb · LHP 0.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 55 C +430 COOL 33 0.247 88.9 8.3% 19.2%vs LHP 398 20.5% 33.3% 23.9% 42

2 Spencer Torkelson 45 D +360 COOL 95 0.197 89.5 8.9% 10.0%vs LHP 394 15.4% 0.0% 10.0% 35

3 Kevin Mcgonigle 39 D +650 COOL 131 0.141 87.9 6.4% 8.1%vs LHP 396 20.0% 40.0% 9.8% 41

4 Gleyber Torres 38 D +700 · 134 0.136 86.0 6.9% 15.4%vs LHP 393 10.7% 25.0% 12.0% 38

5 Colt Keith 35 D — · 155 0.145 88.6 6.6% 9.2% 389 6.1% 0.0% 6.9% 23

6 Zach Mckinstry 27 D — WARM 191 0.108 85.6 3.9% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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