TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ TOR

Playable air · 1.06×

NYY @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 7 mph in 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-6 ↑

7:15p

-8 ↑

8:15p

-8 ↑

9:15p

-8 ↑

10:15p

-7 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at -6

Best of game Trent Grisham conv 24 · vs Bieber ⟷ Jesús Sánchez conv 12 · vs Cole → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Shane Bieber RHP · TOR

leak 93

1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trent Grisham — C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice — C+ ●●○○○

3 Austin Wells — D ●●○○○

FADE Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 73

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jesús Sánchez — D ●●○○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

3 Ernie Clement — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Bieber Edge — 0.196 · 90.7 · 10.1% 25.0% 23.2% F B O C 56

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Bieber Edge — 0.285 · 92.1 · 12.4% 8.3% 19.4% F B O C+ 67

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Bieber — 0.203 · 86.6 · 10.2% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Cole Edge — 0.164 · 90.8 · 9.8% 12.5% 12.5% F B O D 44

· NYY Austin Wells vs Bieber Edge — 0.125 · 89.4 · 8.4% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 44

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Bieber — 0.149 · 83.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 19.5% F B O D 39

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Cole Edge — 0.103 · 86.7 · 3.2% 11.1% 7.7% F B O D 29

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Bieber Edge — 0.177 · 90.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 47

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Cole — 0.124 · 84.7 · 4.5% 7.7% 6.9% F B O D 31

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Cole — 0.205 · 90.4 · 10.2% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 49

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Bieber Edge — 0.159 · 91.1 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 48

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Cole — 0.159 · 88.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 39

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Cole — 0.094 · 90.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.121 · 85.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Cole — 0.114 · 85.9 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.0% ← leak BRK 29.5% OFF 19.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ben Rice L Edge

18.4% 12.2% 13.2% 15.6% C+ 67 —

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.9% 8.0% 5.3% 10.3% C 56 —

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 4.5% 9.1% 10.4% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.7% 4.3% 11.1% 10.2% D 48 —

Jazz Chisholm L Edge

6.6% 13.8% 7.5% 9.0% D 47 —

102

Austin Wells L Edge

9.3% 5.9% 0.0% 7.1% D 44 —

125

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.0% usage) carries Bieber's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 32.6% OFF 14.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R

14.7% 7.1% 14.3% 12.4% D 49 —

101

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.9% 18.3% 0.0% 11.5% D 44 —

127

George Springer R

7.7% 5.6% 7.1% 7.0% D 39 —

177

Vladimir Guerrero R

6.9% 9.1% 1.9% 6.9% D 31 —

178

Ernie Clement R

2.6% 2.3% 1.9% 2.4% D 31 —

181

Myles Straw R

3.8% 0.0% 6.2% 3.2% D 30 —

183

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.8% 2.2% 5.0% 3.4% D 29 —

185

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 3.5% 2.4% 1.2% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Bieber fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Trent Grisham — · 56

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:15p · roof retractable

Park 0.96× Wind 7 mph in 78°F retractable

-6

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

7:15p · peak

-8

↑

7 mph · in

77°F

8:15p

-8

↑

7 mph · in

74°F

9:15p

-8

↑

8 mph · in

72°F

10:15p

-7

↑

8 mph · in

71°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 78°F, wind 7 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Bieber · RHP 1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 7 0.285 92.1 12.4% 31.1%vs RHP 391 24.6% 8.3% 19.4% 24

2 Trent Grisham 56 C — · 26 0.196 90.7 10.1% 19.7%vs RHP 387 12.6% 25.0% 23.2% 36

3 Paul Goldschmidt 53 C — WARM 45 0.203 86.6 10.2% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 15.1% 12

4 Ryan Mcmahon 48 D — COOL 72 0.159 91.1 10.0% 20.0%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 11.2% 23

5 Jazz Chisholm 47 D — COOL 79 0.177 90.9 9.4% 26.0%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 18

6 Austin Wells 44 D — WARM 102 0.125 89.4 8.4% 14.6%vs RHP 387 9.6% 10.0% 9.7% 18

7 Jose Caballero 39 D — WARM 125 0.149 83.9 6.4% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 11

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 49 D — COOL 69 0.205 90.4 10.2% 28.4%vs RHP 397 17.0% 0.0% 14.3% 31

2 Jesús Sánchez 44 D — WARM 101 0.164 90.8 9.8% 19.6%vs RHP 398 10.8% 12.5% 12.5% 17

3 George Springer 39 D — COOL 127 0.159 88.5 7.7% 22.0%vs RHP 393 10.8% 0.0% 10.3% 34

4 Vladimir Guerrero 31 D — · 177 0.094 90.2 7.6% 12.5%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 38

5 Ernie Clement 31 D — COOL 178 0.124 84.7 4.5% 6.4%vs RHP 376 7.8% 7.7% 6.9% 45

6 Myles Straw 30 D — COOL 181 0.114 85.9 5.2% 5.3%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 38

7 Andres Gimenez 29 D — COOL 183 0.121 85.8 5.4% 11.3%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 34

8 Nathan Lukes 29 D — WARM 185 0.103 86.7 3.2% 13.0%vs RHP 381 6.4% 11.1% 7.7% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.