TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.96×

BOS @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +3

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 27 · vs Chandler ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 15 · vs Bennett → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 4

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela — D ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran — D ●●●○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 3

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe — C ●●○○○

2 Jake Mangum — D ●●○○○

3 Jared Triolo — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 12.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Chandler Edge — 0.208 · 90.0 · 8.9% 33.3% 21.2% F B O C 54

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Bennett — 0.229 · 91.0 · 8.3% 15.4% 14.6% F B O C 50

· BOS Willson Contreras COOL vs Chandler — 0.248 · 90.5 · 9.5% 9.1% 14.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Chandler — 0.181 · 86.4 · 5.8% 30.8% 15.8% F B O D 45

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Chandler Edge — 0.153 · 89.7 · 7.7% 23.1% 16.6% F B O D 45

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Chandler — 0.149 · 83.8 · 4.1% 16.7% 8.0% F B O D 36

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Bennett Edge — 0.086 · 85.8 · 3.3% 15.4% 7.1% F B O D 27

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Bennett Edge — 0.063 · 87.5 · 3.5% 14.3% 7.4% F B O D 26

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Chandler Edge — 0.126 · 88.5 · 4.7% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 35

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Bennett Edge — 0.172 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 41

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Chandler — 0.178 · 88.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 42

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Bennett — 0.159 · 86.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 37

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Bennett Edge — 0.093 · 86.3 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.0% ← leak BRK 29.0% OFF 16.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.0% 16.4% 21.9% 14.3% C 55 —

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.0% 15.7% 11.7% 12.8% C 54 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.2% 7.1% 7.6% 9.8% D 45 —

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 6.0% 12.5% 5.6% D 45 —

111

Andruw Monasterio R

7.8% 7.9% 14.3% 8.3% D 42 —

146

Caleb Durbin R

3.3% 1.2% 3.1% 2.8% D 36 —

153

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.3% 0.0% 4.5% 3.6% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.0% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.7% ← leak OFF 25.6% BRK 10.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L

16.3% 8.8% 8.2% 12.3% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

116

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.1% 7.2% 14.3% 11.0% D 41 —

140

Spencer Horwitz L

7.6% 10.7% 7.0% 7.9% D 37 —

189

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 27 —

190

Nick Gonzales R Edge

2.3% 0.0% 4.8% 2.8% D 27 —

193

Jared Triolo R Edge

2.5% 0.0% 2.8% 2.2% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.7% usage) carries Bennett's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abreu Duran Rafaela Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Chandler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Wilyer Abreu — · 54

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

6:40p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

76°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · out

75°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · out

74°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 77°F, wind 3 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 55 C — COOL 32 0.248 90.5 9.5% 30.9%vs RHP 406 19.8% 9.1% 14.6% 22

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 54 C — WARM 38 0.208 90.0 8.9% 17.0%vs RHP 406 16.2% 33.3% 21.2% 36

3 Jarren Duran 45 D — · 88 0.153 89.7 7.7% 30.0%vs RHP 399 13.2% 23.1% 16.6% 39

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 45 D — WARM 89 0.181 86.4 5.8% 17.9%vs RHP 382 13.7% 30.8% 15.8% 49

5 Andruw Monasterio 42 D — COOL 111 0.178 88.4 7.1% 2.8%vs RHP 390 13.3% 0.0% 7.3% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 36 D — WARM 146 0.149 83.8 4.1% 20.5%vs RHP 375 9.7% 16.7% 8.0% 42

7 Masataka Yoshida 35 D — WARM 153 0.126 88.5 4.7% 10.0%vs RHP 368 10.0% 9.1% 7.2% 38

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.67 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 50 C — · 60 0.229 91.0 8.3% 14.3%vs LHP 392 16.4% 15.4% 14.6% 28

2 Bryan Reynolds 41 D — COOL 116 0.172 90.6 7.8% 18.8%vs LHP 409 11.8% 0.0% 9.9% 35

3 Spencer Horwitz 37 D — COOL 140 0.159 86.8 6.6% 14.3%vs LHP 395 10.5% 0.0% 7.0% 29

4 Jake Mangum 27 D — WARM 189 0.086 85.8 3.3% 7.1%vs LHP 393 5.1% 15.4% 7.1% 36

5 Nick Gonzales 27 D — COOL 190 0.093 86.3 4.0% 3.6%vs LHP 397 6.9% 0.0% 6.0% 42

6 Jared Triolo 26 D — WARM 193 0.063 87.5 3.5% 0.0%vs LHP 419 1.6% 14.3% 7.4% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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