TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ NYM

Neutral air · 1.04×

WSH @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:10p

-6 ↑

8:10p

-9 ↑

9:10p

-11 ↑

10:10p

-11 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -4

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 14 · vs Stock ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 20 · vs Alvarez → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Robert Stock RHP

leak 78

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile — D ●●○○○

2 Cj Abrams — C ●●○○○

3 Jacob Young — D ●○○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 3

0.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor — D ●●●○○

2 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

3 Marcus Semien — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: 10.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Cj Abrams ✶ COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.258 · 89.7 · 9.7% 0.0% 22.1% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Alvarez Edge — 0.191 · 91.4 · 7.1% 25.0% 15.6% F B O D 44

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Alvarez — 0.114 · 89.8 · 6.8% 25.0% 9.4% F B O D 35

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.144 · 86.5 · 6.1% 20.0% 8.5% F B O D 37

· — Daylen Lile vs Stock Edge — 0.170 · 88.4 · 8.7% 16.7% 11.4% F B O D 45

· NYM Carson Benge vs Alvarez — 0.139 · 89.5 · 6.3% 18.2% 8.2% F B O D 36

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Alvarez Edge — 0.118 · 89.4 · 5.6% 16.7% 7.0% F B O D 33

· — Jacob Young COOL vs Stock — 0.158 · 88.3 · 7.5% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 41

· — Dylan Crews vs Stock — 0.152 · 90.6 · 9.7% 7.7% 8.2% F B O D 45

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Alvarez Edge — 0.181 · 90.1 · 9.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 39

· — Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.166 · 88.5 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 39

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Alvarez — 0.132 · 89.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 31

· — Nasim Nunez COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.037 · 84.9 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 53.9% ← leak FB 42.3% OFF 3.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

6.1% 11.9% 6.5% 9.6% D 44 —

126

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

15.7% 17.2% 17.4% 16.7% D 39 —

139

Marcus Semien R Edge

2.2% 9.8% 7.1% 7.1% D 37 —

143

Carson Benge L

9.6% 7.3% 6.7% 7.7% D 36 —

151

Brett Baty L

13.2% 8.1% 4.1% 8.4% D 35 —

169

Bo Bichette R Edge

10.3% 5.0% 0.0% 6.1% D 33 —

176

A.J. Ewing L

9.6% 8.2% 2.4% 7.4% D 31 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (53.9% usage) carries Alvarez's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 78.0% ← leak Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.7% 10.5% C 57 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.4% 8.4% D 45 —

Dylan Crews R

6.6% 10.4% D 45 —

119

Jacob Young R

8.2% 6.3% D 41 —

130

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

5.9% 4.5% D 39 —

197

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.4% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (78.0% usage) carries Stock's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Benge Baty Abrams Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Stock fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 8 mph cross 79°F open

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

7:10p · peak

-6

↑

6 mph · in

80°F

8:10p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

79°F

9:10p

-11

↑

10 mph · in

78°F

10:10p

-11

↑

11 mph · in

76°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 79°F, wind 8 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 44 D — · 99 0.191 91.4 7.1% 15.0%vs LHP 396 12.5% 25.0% 15.6% 34

2 Francisco Alvarez 39 D — WARM 126 0.181 90.1 9.3% 20.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 19

3 Marcus Semien 37 D — COOL 139 0.144 86.5 6.1% 12.5%vs LHP 391 12.2% 20.0% 8.5% 32

4 Carson Benge 36 D — WARM 143 0.139 89.5 6.3% 15.8%vs LHP 401 9.4% 18.2% 8.2% 38

5 Brett Baty 35 D — HOT 151 0.114 89.8 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 397 7.3% 25.0% 9.4% 15

6 Bo Bichette 33 D — · 169 0.118 89.4 5.6% 20.0%vs LHP 389 9.3% 16.7% 7.0% 39

7 A.J. Ewing 31 D — WARM 176 0.132 89.6 6.2% 15.4%vs LHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 38

vs Robert Stock · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams ✶ 57 C — COOL 21 0.258 89.7 9.7% 31.1%vs RHP 395 33.3% 0.0% 22.1% 32

2 Daylen Lile 45 D — WARM 90 0.170 88.4 8.7% 13.0%vs RHP 400 10.3% 16.7% 11.4% 35

3 Dylan Crews 45 D — · 94 0.152 90.6 9.7% 13.9%vs RHP 407 17.2% 7.7% 8.2% 37

4 Jacob Young 41 D — COOL 119 0.158 88.3 7.5% 14.6%vs RHP 399 8.3% 9.1% 8.6% 29

5 Keibert Ruiz 39 D — COOL 130 0.166 88.5 6.3% 7.5%vs RHP 377 8.9% 0.0% 8.8% 24

6 Nasim Nunez 20 D — COOL 197 0.037 84.9 1.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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