TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.73×

TEX @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 13 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

6:40p

+9 ↑

7:40p

+9 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Lawrence Butler conv 22 · vs Rocker ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 33 · vs Proxy → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Kumar Rocker RHP · TEX

leak 89

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lawrence Butler +500 C ●●●○○

2 Tyler Soderstrom +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte +750 D ●●○○○

FADE ATH Bullpen Proxy · ATH

leak 72

1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — B ●●●●●

2 Brandon Nimmo +500 C+ ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager +370 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 39.0% · 14D pace 27.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Proxy — 0.258 · 92.1 · 11.5% 27.3% 39.0% F B O B 73

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Proxy +500 0.168 · 92.2 · 11.0% 23.1% 22.0% F B O C+ 61

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Rocker Edge +500 0.130 · 89.5 · 7.6% 25.0% 19.6% F B O C 50

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Rocker Edge +370 0.229 · 90.8 · 8.6% 16.7% 27.9% F B O C+ 62

· TEX Corey Seager vs Proxy +370 0.193 · 91.4 · 15.2% 16.7% 19.0% F B O C+ 67

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Proxy +390 0.212 · 89.3 · 8.0% 7.7% 17.5% F B O C 58

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Proxy +575 0.173 · 88.6 · 6.2% 7.7% 14.3% F B O C 52

· TEX Jake Burger COOL vs Proxy +370 0.174 · 89.8 · 10.6% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 58

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Rocker Edge +575 0.187 · 87.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Rocker +750 0.095 · 91.1 · 7.6% 16.7% 12.7% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Rocker Edge +575 0.151 · 89.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 47

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Rocker +750 0.123 · 84.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 40

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Proxy +750 0.130 · 87.6 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 45

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Rocker Edge +625 0.076 · 86.3 · 2.8% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for ATH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 56.0% ← leak BRK 38.8% OFF 4.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.4% 15.6% 0.0% 9.5% C+ 62 +370

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.7% 4.1% 10.4% 7.5% C 51 +575

Lawrence Butler L Edge

7.9% 8.7% 3.8% 7.1% C 50 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.5% 4.3% 7.8% 6.9% D 47 +575

Henry Bolte R

8.4% 6.8% 4.8% 7.6% D 46 +750

138

Jacob Wilson R

4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 40 +750

182

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% D 34 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.0% usage) carries Rocker's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Nimmo Soderstrom Butler Bolte

Legend

attack side — vs Rocker fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson — · 73

Brandon Nimmo +500 · 61

Lawrence Butler +500 · 50

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 13 mph out 74°F open

↑

3 mph · out

66°F

6:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

66°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · out

66°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · out

66°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · out

66°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.73× 74°F, wind 13 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs ATH Bullpen Proxy 1.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 73 B — WARM 4 0.258 92.1 11.5% 26.5% 396 22.4% 27.3% 39.0% 22

2 Corey Seager 67 C+ +370 · 11 0.193 91.4 15.2% 20.0% 395 17.5% 16.7% 19.0% 36

3 Brandon Nimmo 61 C+ +500 COOL 22 0.168 92.2 11.0% 12.9% 403 10.8% 23.1% 22.0% 37

4 Wyatt Langford 58 C +390 COOL 39 0.212 89.3 8.0% 15.3% 397 15.9% 7.7% 17.5% 27

5 Jake Burger 58 C +370 COOL 40 0.174 89.8 10.6% 17.4% 398 14.7% 0.0% 14.8% 29

6 Ezequiel Duran 52 C +575 · 81 0.173 88.6 6.2% 15.3% 393 12.7% 7.7% 14.3% 34

7 Evan Carter 45 D +750 COOL 125 0.130 87.6 5.6% 9.3% 374 8.0% 0.0% 9.9% 30

vs Kumar Rocker · RHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 62 C+ +370 WARM 12 0.229 90.8 8.6% 19.6%vs RHP 404 16.0% 16.7% 27.9% 29

2 Jonah Heim 51 C +575 WARM 62 0.187 87.5 7.6% 6.2%vs RHP 414 10.0% 0.0% 13.4% 32

3 Lawrence Butler 50 C +500 · 65 0.130 89.5 7.6% 20.9%vs RHP 410 6.9% 25.0% 19.6% 35

4 Carlos Cortes 47 D +575 COOL 88 0.151 89.5 7.3% 14.9%vs RHP 403 4.8% 0.0% 12.4% 13

5 Henry Bolte 46 D +750 WARM 92 0.095 91.1 7.6% 4.8%vs RHP 423 10.0% 16.7% 12.7% 29

6 Jacob Wilson 40 D +750 WARM 138 0.123 84.1 4.4% 14.3%vs RHP 386 6.7% 0.0% 10.6% 31

7 Jeff Mcneil 34 D +625 COOL 182 0.076 86.3 2.8% 8.2%vs RHP 377 2.9% 0.0% 9.7% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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