TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.64×

SEA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 11 mph out 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+19 ↑

7:10p

+18 ↑

8:10p

+18 ↑

9:10p

+17 ↑

10:10p

+15 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +19

Best of game Cam Smith conv 20 · vs Kirby ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 24 · vs Lambert → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 62

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cam Smith — C ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker — C ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña — C ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 12

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

2 Julio Rodríguez — C ●●●●○

3 Dominic Canzone — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 17.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Lambert — 0.177 · 91.0 · 7.3% 25.0% 24.0% F B O C 55

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Lambert — 0.171 · 90.0 · 7.9% 25.0% 22.0% F B O C 56

· HOU Cam Smith vs Kirby — 0.170 · 89.6 · 9.4% 18.2% 22.1% F B O C 55

· HOU Christian Walker vs Kirby — 0.213 · 89.4 · 8.4% 9.1% 17.4% F B O C 57

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.241 · 91.6 · 9.7% 8.3% 17.9% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs Kirby — 0.184 · 88.3 · 6.3% 8.3% 15.9% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Kirby Edge — 0.299 · 94.5 · 11.7% 0.0% 19.9% F B O C+ 64

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Lambert Edge — 0.139 · 89.1 · 9.5% 9.1% 8.6% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Kirby — 0.145 · 87.7 · 6.3% 11.1% 12.0% F B O D 46

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Lambert Edge — 0.108 · 87.8 · 5.8% 10.0% 11.7% F B O D 41

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Kirby — 0.161 · 86.1 · 6.3% 9.1% 12.1% F B O D 47

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Lambert Edge — 0.144 · 86.7 · 5.9% 9.1% 10.7% F B O D 45

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Lambert Edge — 0.141 · 89.0 · 5.8% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 45

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Kirby — 0.151 · 85.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 41

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Kirby — 0.108 · 85.9 · 3.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.9% ← leak BRK 25.8% OFF 23.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dominic Canzone L Edge

16.3% 13.0% 7.8% 13.4% C+ 61 —

Julio Rodríguez R

9.3% 8.2% 9.1% 9.0% C 56 —

Randy Arozarena R

8.2% 7.5% 7.4% 7.8% C 55 —

Cal Raleigh S Edge

10.8% 16.3% 14.6% 12.9% C 50 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Colt Emerson L Edge

5.4% 4.9% 3.8% 5.0% D 45 —

Cole Young L Edge

4.3% 9.0% 1.8% 4.9% D 45 —

115

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.4% 8.5% 1.6% 4.8% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.9% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.2% ← leak BRK 38.7% OFF 7.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.5% 22.6% 10.1% 17.9% C+ 64 —

Christian Walker R

8.2% 9.8% 13.9% 9.4% C 57 —

Cam Smith R

9.8% 15.2% 17.2% 11.8% C 55 —

Jeremy Peña R

3.6% 7.2% 10.0% 5.3% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

7.1% 3.2% 1.9% 5.3% D 47 —

Yainer Diaz R

6.3% 3.1% 6.5% 5.2% D 46 —

114

Jose Altuve R

6.1% 4.8% 0.0% 5.1% D 41 —

148

Christian Vazquez R

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.2% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Rodríguez Arozarena Alvarez Walker Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Kirby fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Randy Arozarena — · 55

Julio Rodríguez — · 56

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.17× Wind 11 mph out 87°F retractable

+19

↑

12 mph · out

89°F

7:10p · peak

+18

↑

11 mph · out

88°F

8:10p

+18

↑

11 mph · out

86°F

9:10p

+17

↑

10 mph · out

85°F

10:10p

+15

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.64× 87°F, wind 11 mph S (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 61 C+ — COOL 14 0.241 91.6 9.7% 27.1%vs RHP 402 16.5% 8.3% 17.9% 36

2 Julio Rodríguez 56 C — · 28 0.171 90.0 7.9% 20.4%vs RHP 405 17.4% 25.0% 22.0% 29

3 Randy Arozarena 55 C — · 30 0.177 91.0 7.3% 25.0%vs RHP 386 13.6% 25.0% 24.0% 35

4 Cal Raleigh 50 C — HOT 63 0.139 89.1 9.5% 12.1%vs RHP 395 12.5% 9.1% 8.6% 24

5 Colt Emerson 45 D — WARM 91 0.144 86.7 5.9% 26.3%vs RHP 376 9.4% 9.1% 10.7% 20

6 Cole Young 45 D — COOL 93 0.141 89.0 5.8% 17.1%vs RHP 387 11.2% 9.1% 9.3% 39

7 Josh Naylor 41 D — WARM 115 0.108 87.8 5.8% 11.9%vs RHP 392 7.1% 10.0% 11.7% 28

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 64 C+ — · 9 0.299 94.5 11.7% 26.5%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 35

2 Christian Walker 57 C — · 25 0.213 89.4 8.4% 24.7%vs RHP 391 17.7% 9.1% 17.4% 35

3 Cam Smith 55 C — · 31 0.170 89.6 9.4% 19.6%vs RHP 408 13.0% 18.2% 22.1% 29

4 Jeremy Peña 50 C — COOL 59 0.184 88.3 6.3% 30.0%vs RHP 385 14.3% 8.3% 15.9% 34

5 Isaac Paredes 47 D — COOL 82 0.161 86.1 6.3% 17.6%vs RHP 377 11.3% 9.1% 12.1% 40

6 Yainer Diaz 46 D — · 85 0.145 87.7 6.3% 25.8%vs RHP 398 10.3% 11.1% 12.0% 27

7 Jose Altuve 41 D — COOL 114 0.151 85.6 6.2% 22.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 35

8 Christian Vazquez 35 D — COOL 148 0.108 85.9 3.0% 12.5%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 9

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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