TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.30×

MIL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

+5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +10

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 27 · vs Yamamoto ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 28 · vs Gasser → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 73

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C+ ●●●●○

2 Jackson Chourio — C ●●●●○

3 Brice Turang — D ●●○○○

FADE Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 64

1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani — C+ ●●●●○

2 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●○○

3 Mookie Betts — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ COOL vs Gasser — 0.252 · 93.4 · 10.2% 23.1% 33.4% F B O C+ 67

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.231 · 92.8 · 9.7% 23.1% 31.4% F B O C+ 61

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Yamamoto — 0.198 · 92.1 · 9.5% 28.6% 24.3% F B O C 57

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Gasser — 0.232 · 90.1 · 9.1% 12.5% 20.1% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Gasser Edge — 0.178 · 90.5 · 7.0% 16.7% 11.3% F B O C 50

· LAD Andy Pages vs Gasser Edge — 0.183 · 89.0 · 7.0% 7.7% 13.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Gasser — 0.142 · 88.8 · 6.3% 16.7% 9.5% F B O D 44

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.180 · 90.5 · 7.3% 7.1% 13.7% F B O D 47

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.143 · 88.5 · 7.9% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 43

· MIL William Contreras vs Yamamoto — 0.122 · 89.9 · 7.0% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 41

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Gasser Edge — 0.154 · 89.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 15.3% F B O D 44

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.153 · 92.8 · 9.3% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 46

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Gasser — 0.166 · 89.8 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 48

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.088 · 86.5 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.8% ← leak OFF 27.0% BRK 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.6% 14.7% 13.2% 14.2% C+ 61 —

Jackson Chourio R

14.2% 3.3% 15.2% 13.2% C 57 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L Edge

9.5% 1.7% 9.8% 8.1% D 47 —

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

15.9% 6.7% 10.9% 13.2% D 46 —

107

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.6% 12.0% 10.0% 9.4% D 43 —

118

William Contreras R

7.9% 0.0% 9.0% 7.5% D 41 —

168

David Hamilton L Edge

3.2% 0.0% 7.1% 3.6% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.0% ← leak BRK 25.9% OFF 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Shohei Ohtani L

19.8% 10.2% 17.0% 16.3% C+ 67 —

Max Muncy L

15.4% 15.0% 7.6% 13.3% C+ 60 —

Andy Pages R Edge

7.6% 7.9% 8.6% 7.8% C 50 —

Mookie Betts R Edge

9.1% 3.2% 6.1% 7.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L

9.2% 8.9% 8.5% 9.0% D 48 —

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.6% 11.9% 6.9% 9.0% D 44 —

Kyle Tucker L

9.3% 3.2% 1.4% 6.3% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.0% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Ohtani Muncy Betts Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Yamamoto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Shohei Ohtani — · 67

Jake Bauers — · 61

Jackson Chourio — · 57

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 76°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

73°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

72°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 76°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 61 C+ — · 13 0.231 92.8 9.7% 31.2%vs RHP 401 19.6% 23.1% 31.4% 32

2 Jackson Chourio 57 C — WARM 24 0.198 92.1 9.5% 19.7%vs RHP 401 17.1% 28.6% 24.3% 35

3 Brice Turang 47 D — COOL 80 0.180 90.5 7.3% 25.8%vs RHP 407 11.0% 7.1% 13.7% 34

4 Garrett Mitchell 46 D — COOL 86 0.153 92.8 9.3% 24.2%vs RHP 415 7.1% 0.0% 11.5% 29

5 Christian Yelich 43 D — WARM 107 0.143 88.5 7.9% 16.7%vs RHP 401 7.4% 9.1% 9.8% 31

6 William Contreras 41 D — WARM 118 0.122 89.9 7.0% 16.7%vs RHP 417 9.1% 7.7% 9.2% 38

7 David Hamilton 33 D — COOL 168 0.088 86.5 4.9% 5.9%vs RHP 383 3.8% 0.0% 7.6% 30

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.48 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 67 C+ — COOL 6 0.252 93.4 10.2% 33.3%vs LHP 403 19.7% 23.1% 33.4% 38

2 Max Muncy 60 C+ — COOL 16 0.232 90.1 9.1% 25.9%vs LHP 411 18.5% 12.5% 20.1% 35

3 Andy Pages 50 C — · 61 0.183 89.0 7.0% 17.1%vs LHP 392 13.4% 7.7% 13.2% 40

4 Mookie Betts 50 C — · 62 0.178 90.5 7.0% 7.9%vs LHP 390 11.4% 16.7% 11.3% 40

5 Freddie Freeman 48 D — COOL 77 0.166 89.8 7.6% 13.8%vs LHP 398 11.0% 0.0% 10.8% 40

6 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D — WARM 97 0.154 89.5 7.5% 19.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 15.3% 30

7 Kyle Tucker 44 D — COOL 98 0.142 88.8 6.3% 6.7%vs LHP 392 7.9% 16.7% 9.5% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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