TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.52×

AZ @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.09× Wind 8 mph out 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:15p

+10 ↑

8:15p

+9 ↑

9:15p

+8 ↑

10:15p

+7 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 8:15p at +10

Best of game Matt Olson conv 47 · vs Pfaadt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 26 · vs Proxy → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 87

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — B ●●●●●

2 Austin Riley — C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Smith — D ●●●○○

FADE ATL Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 57

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll — C+ ●●●●○

3 Ketel Marte — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 58.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.285 · 92.7 · 11.0% 58.3% 36.6% F B O B 74

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Proxy — 0.192 · 85.1 · 7.1% 30.8% 21.8% F B O C 54

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Proxy — 0.239 · 91.6 · 12.3% 23.1% 24.3% F B O C+ 65

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Pfaadt — 0.150 · 91.1 · 9.9% 25.0% 14.7% F B O C 51

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Proxy — 0.197 · 90.1 · 10.2% 15.4% 17.0% F B O C 57

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.178 · 91.6 · 10.3% 0.0% 14.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.131 · 87.8 · 6.6% 25.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.167 · 90.5 · 7.6% 14.3% 21.2% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.176 · 87.0 · 5.9% 18.2% 14.4% F B O D 48

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Pfaadt — 0.190 · 90.4 · 10.2% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 49

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Proxy — 0.129 · 87.2 · 3.3% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 37

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.197 · 90.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 49

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Proxy — 0.147 · 90.4 · 7.2% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 44

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Proxy — 0.148 · 89.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 43

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Proxy — 0.135 · 87.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Proxy — 0.116 · 88.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 41

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Pfaadt — 0.132 · 86.9 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for ATL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 55.9% ← leak BRK 28.6% OFF 15.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.5% 12.4% 12.8% 15.4% B 74 —

Neutral · 2

Drake Baldwin L Edge

13.4% 20.0% 4.4% 13.7% C 53 —

Austin Riley R

13.9% 13.1% 5.6% 12.6% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.8% 7.8% 6.7% 7.7% D 49 —

Ronald Acuna R

14.2% 11.9% 12.0% 13.4% D 49 —

Michael Harris L Edge

6.7% 13.8% 15.3% 10.7% D 49 —

Ozzie Albies S Edge

7.0% 1.8% 2.9% 4.5% D 48 —

106

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.9% 7.5% 2.6% 5.7% D 43 —

138

Mauricio Dubon R

2.9% 5.7% 5.0% 4.0% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.9% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Marte Arenado Olson Riley Yastrzemski Albies Smith

Legend

attack side — vs Pfaadt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Matt Olson — · 74

Nolan Arenado — · 54

Corbin Carroll — · 65

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.09× Wind 8 mph out 87°F open

↑

6 mph · out

85°F

7:15p

+10

↑

6 mph · out

84°F

8:15p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

83°F

9:15p

↑

4 mph · out

81°F

10:15p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.52× 87°F, wind 8 mph NW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs ATL Bullpen Proxy 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 65 C+ — · 12 0.239 91.6 12.3% 14.0% 402 14.7% 23.1% 24.3% 40

2 Ketel Marte 57 C — COOL 41 0.197 90.1 10.2% 15.3% 409 15.5% 15.4% 17.0% 32

3 Nolan Arenado 54 C — · 56 0.192 85.1 7.1% 14.3% 390 15.2% 30.8% 21.8% 39

4 Tim Tawa 44 D — WARM 121 0.147 90.4 7.2% 13.6% 401 4.2% 0.0% 11.0% 36

5 Gabriel Moreno 43 D — COOL 124 0.148 89.2 6.7% 9.2% 400 8.0% 0.0% 9.2% 39

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 41 D — COOL 136 0.116 88.1 7.3% 4.8% 419 3.1% 0.0% 7.6% 30

7 Ildemaro Vargas 37 D — WARM 165 0.135 87.6 3.3% 8.4% 399 4.5% 0.0% 8.3% 21

8 Geraldo Perdomo 37 D — WARM 166 0.129 87.2 3.3% 8.0% 383 7.5% 8.3% 8.0% 42

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 74 B — WARM 1 0.285 92.7 11.0% 34.8%vs RHP 407 25.4% 58.3% 36.6% 30

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C — COOL 46 0.178 91.6 10.3% 26.0%vs RHP 403 16.8% 0.0% 14.5% 39

3 Austin Riley 51 C — HOT 53 0.150 91.1 9.9% 18.8%vs RHP 407 10.0% 25.0% 14.7% 27

4 Mike Yastrzemski 49 D — WARM 66 0.167 90.5 7.6% 19.0%vs RHP 389 9.2% 14.3% 21.2% 18

5 Ronald Acuna 49 D — · 67 0.190 90.4 10.2% 23.7%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 40

6 Michael Harris 49 D — COOL 68 0.197 90.8 9.2% 23.6%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 36

7 Ozzie Albies 48 D — WARM 75 0.176 87.0 5.9% 14.3%vs RHP 386 14.9% 18.2% 14.4% 35

8 Dominic Smith 43 D — WARM 106 0.131 87.8 6.6% 15.4%vs RHP 392 8.3% 25.0% 11.8% 7

9 Mauricio Dubon 37 D — WARM 138 0.132 86.9 5.5% 10.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.