TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ LAA

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KC @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph out 77°F Roof open

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best window is early — 6:38p at +6

Best of game Mike Trout conv 16 · vs Lugo ⟷ Jac Caglianone conv 24 · vs Rodriguez → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 73

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout — C ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto — D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Schanuel — D ●○○○○

FADE Grayson Rodriguez RHP · LAA

leak 64

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jac Caglianone — C ●●●●○

2 Carter Jensen — D ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.217 · 93.2 · 12.2% 25.0% 22.7% F B O C 56

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Lugo — 0.206 · 90.4 · 11.8% 15.4% 16.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· KC Carter Jensen vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.186 · 90.7 · 10.2% 18.2% 15.6% F B O D 48

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Lugo — 0.190 · 89.3 · 9.8% 7.7% 10.5% F B O D 45

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.158 · 89.7 · 7.7% 9.1% 7.3% F B O D 38

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Lugo Edge — 0.114 · 87.4 · 4.6% 7.7% 5.9% F B O D 28

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.163 · 92.7 · 10.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.153 · 89.0 · 9.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 38

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Rodriguez — 0.145 · 86.8 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Lugo — 0.136 · 88.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.138 · 89.2 · 8.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 36

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Lugo — 0.124 · 87.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 32

· KC Isaac Collins vs Rodriguez Edge — 0.125 · 88.4 · 7.7% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.4% ← leak OFF 23.8% BRK 22.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jac Caglianone L Edge

13.2% 11.9% 17.7% 14.4% C 56 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Carter Jensen L Edge

9.8% 10.0% 10.3% 10.0% D 48 —

117

Bobby Witt R

12.0% 13.3% 10.4% 11.6% D 41 —

132

Salvador Perez R

12.8% 7.1% 6.6% 9.5% D 38 —

133

Michael Massey L Edge

7.4% 1.9% 5.6% 5.8% D 38 —

152

Nick Loftin R

5.8% 0.0% 2.0% 4.1% D 35 —

162

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.9% 2.4% 9.7% 5.8% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.4% usage) carries Rodriguez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.2% ← leak BRK 36.0% OFF 8.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R

15.7% 25.6% 12.0% 17.1% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.0% 8.0% 10.3% 11.7% D 45 —

144

Josh Lowe L Edge

12.8% 2.6% 6.7% 8.9% D 36 —

161

Vaughn Grissom R

8.7% 6.5% 0.0% 6.8% D 34 —

171

Oswald Peraza R

6.2% 6.9% 10.7% 7.1% D 32 —

187

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.7% 3.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.2% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Jensen Trout

Legend

attack side — vs Lugo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone — · 56

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.85× Wind 10 mph out 77°F open

↑

10 mph · out

76°F

6:38p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

74°F

7:38p

↑

8 mph · out

73°F

8:38p

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

9:38p

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 77°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Grayson Rodriguez · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 56 C — COOL 27 0.217 93.2 12.2% 31.2%vs RHP 418 15.0% 25.0% 22.7% 42

2 Carter Jensen 48 D — · 74 0.186 90.7 10.2% 18.4%vs RHP 394 14.7% 18.2% 15.6% 26

3 Bobby Witt 41 D — COOL 117 0.163 92.7 10.9% 15.2%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 29

4 Salvador Perez 38 D — COOL 132 0.153 89.0 9.9% 18.3%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 38

5 Michael Massey 38 D — COOL 133 0.158 89.7 7.7% 7.9%vs RHP 401 6.1% 9.1% 7.3% 30

6 Nick Loftin 35 D — COOL 152 0.145 86.8 6.5% 10.3%vs RHP 397 8.8% 0.0% 7.9% 28

7 Isaac Collins 34 D — · 162 0.125 88.4 7.7% 8.3%vs RHP 394 5.9% 0.0% 6.1% 28

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 50 C — COOL 57 0.206 90.4 11.8% 24.2%vs RHP 409 16.0% 15.4% 16.4% 30

2 Zach Neto 45 D — COOL 92 0.190 89.3 9.8% 18.8%vs RHP 402 15.7% 7.7% 10.5% 31

3 Josh Lowe 36 D — COOL 144 0.138 89.2 8.6% 15.7%vs RHP 396 8.9% 0.0% 6.8% 13

4 Vaughn Grissom 34 D — COOL 161 0.136 88.2 7.5% 17.9%vs RHP 390 9.1% 0.0% 7.4% 34

5 Oswald Peraza 32 D — WARM 171 0.124 87.6 7.6% 8.3%vs RHP 386 5.8% 0.0% 6.2% 14

6 Nolan Schanuel 28 D — · 187 0.114 87.4 4.6% 9.4%vs RHP 375 6.8% 7.7% 5.9% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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