TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TB

Neutral air · 1.05×

BAL @ TB

Tropicana Field · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 26 · vs Matz ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 36 · vs Proxy → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Steven Matz LHP · TB

leak 90

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●○○○

3 Leody Taveras — D ●●○○○

FADE BAL Bullpen Proxy

leak 39

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — B ●●●●●

2 Taylor Walls — D ●○○○○

3 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 30.1% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero ✶ vs Proxy — 0.272 · 93.0 · 13.8% 41.7% 30.1% F B O B 73

· BAL Pete Alonso HOT vs Matz Edge — 0.221 · 94.2 · 12.4% 25.0% 26.8% F B O C+ 66

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Matz Edge — 0.220 · 92.3 · 11.3% 12.5% 19.9% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Matz — 0.175 · 89.8 · 9.0% 8.3% 14.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Matz Edge — 0.141 · 87.8 · 7.1% 11.1% 14.9% F B O D 44

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Matz — 0.126 · 87.0 · 10.7% 12.5% 11.9% F B O D 49

· — Taylor Walls COOL vs Proxy — 0.083 · 85.4 · 2.3% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 30

· — Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 90.8 · 9.7% 9.1% 8.6% F B O D 47

· — Richie Palacios vs Proxy — 0.113 · 86.2 · 4.1% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 35

· — Yandy Diaz vs Proxy — 0.164 · 90.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· — Cedric Mullins COOL vs Proxy — 0.149 · 87.7 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· — Nick Fortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.105 · 85.5 · 2.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 31

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.058 · 83.9 · — 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.7% ← leak OFF 29.6% BRK 21.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.8% 16.2% 9.7% 14.1% C+ 66 —

Coby Mayo R Edge

9.8% 15.4% 12.7% 11.6% C+ 60 —

Gunnar Henderson L

7.6% 8.1% 6.7% 7.4% C 52 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L

15.0% 2.2% 10.5% 10.4% D 49 —

100

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.2% 0.0% 7.7% 4.6% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.7% usage) carries Matz's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for BAL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Taveras Caminero

Legend

attack side — vs Matz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero — · 73

Pete Alonso — · 66

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Steven Matz · LHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 66 C+ — HOT 8 0.221 94.2 12.4% 16.7%vs LHP 402 19.2% 25.0% 26.8% 31

2 Coby Mayo 60 C+ — COOL 15 0.220 92.3 11.3% 39.3%vs LHP 407 15.7% 12.5% 19.9% 21

3 Gunnar Henderson 52 C — WARM 50 0.175 89.8 9.0% 30.4%vs LHP 391 15.3% 8.3% 14.0% 30

4 Colton Cowser 49 D — · 70 0.126 87.0 10.7% 20.0%vs LHP 419 13.1% 12.5% 11.9% 16

5 Leody Taveras 44 D — · 100 0.141 87.8 7.1% 7.7%vs LHP 405 4.8% 11.1% 14.9% 23

vs BAL Bullpen Proxy 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 73 B — WARM 4 0.272 93.0 13.8% 31.8% 413 27.4% 41.7% 30.1% 35

2 Jonathan Aranda 47 D — COOL 104 0.146 90.8 9.7% 13.2% 386 11.6% 9.1% 8.6% 39

3 Yandy Diaz 41 D — · 135 0.164 90.9 7.0% 17.2% 387 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 45

4 Cedric Mullins 38 D — COOL 156 0.149 87.7 3.6% 9.5% 389 12.6% 0.0% 8.3% 27

5 Richie Palacios 35 D — WARM 173 0.113 86.2 4.1% 8.1% 398 4.6% 10.0% 7.6% 19

6 Nick Fortes 31 D — COOL 188 0.105 85.5 2.3% 6.5% 396 4.5% 0.0% 6.9% 12

7 Taylor Walls 30 D — COOL 192 0.083 85.4 2.3% 2.4% 383 1.0% 9.1% 8.9% 29

8 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 198 0.058 83.9 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.