TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.98×

SD @ CLE

Progressive Field · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:10p

-2 ↑

8:10p

-1 ↑

9:10p

-1 ↑

10:10p

+0 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 26 · vs Williams ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 28 · vs King → edge: Rhys Hoskins

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 99

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill — C ●●●●○

2 Ty France — C ●●○○○

3 Gavin Sheets — D ●●○○○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 73

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●○

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rhys Hoskins: 12.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins ✶ HOT vs King — 0.200 · 89.3 · 10.5% 33.3% 22.6% F B O C 54

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Williams Edge — 0.174 · 90.5 · 11.2% 30.8% 20.3% F B O C 53

· SD Ty France COOL vs Williams — 0.227 · 92.3 · 10.8% 7.7% 20.8% F B O C 54

· SD Manny Machado vs Williams — 0.201 · 90.9 · 10.6% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Williams Edge — 0.179 · 87.5 · 9.0% 7.7% 17.3% F B O D 45

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Williams — 0.102 · 88.5 · 7.8% 7.7% 10.2% F B O D 36

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Williams — 0.139 · 92.4 · 11.2% 0.0% 17.4% F B O D 42

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs King Edge — 0.062 · 83.7 · 1.6% 9.1% 6.5% F B O D 23

· CLE Angel Martinez vs King Edge — 0.195 · 87.7 · 8.4% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter vs King Edge — 0.162 · 91.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 41

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Williams — 0.123 · 87.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 35

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs King Edge — 0.143 · 88.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs King Edge — 0.147 · 89.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.068 · 87.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs King Edge — 0.115 · 86.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.4% BRK 49.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Ty France R

10.8% 11.3% 10.8% C 54 —

Jackson Merrill L Edge

13.9% 11.2% 11.6% C 53 —

Manny Machado R

12.3% 6.5% 10.3% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.1% 6.1% 7.5% D 45 —

109

Fernando Tatis R

9.6% 13.9% 11.6% D 42 —

142

Xander Bogaerts R

6.8% 3.6% 5.7% D 36 —

150

Freddy Fermin R

3.1% 5.6% 4.2% D 35 —

184

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.3% 2.9% 3.9% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.0% ← leak OFF 28.2% BRK 24.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

11.1% 13.3% 17.5% 12.9% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

108

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.6% 3.1% 14.9% 8.3% D 42 —

113

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.5% 1.6% 6.7% 6.7% D 41 —

128

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.5% 3.4% 3.6% 4.1% D 39 —

141

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 36 —

160

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.1% 1.1% 4.5% 3.4% D 34 —

195

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.0% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Merrill Hoskins

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rhys Hoskins — · 54

Jackson Merrill — · 53

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 4 mph in 76°F open

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

7:10p

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

76°F

8:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

9:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · cross

72°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

71°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 76°F, wind 4 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.82 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 54 C — COOL 39 0.227 92.3 10.8% 30.4%vs RHP 392 16.7% 7.7% 20.8% 39

2 Jackson Merrill 53 C — WARM 48 0.174 90.5 11.2% 20.8%vs RHP 412 15.8% 30.8% 20.3% 41

3 Manny Machado 51 C — WARM 52 0.201 90.9 10.6% 27.1%vs RHP 397 18.1% 0.0% 17.8% 38

4 Gavin Sheets 45 D — WARM 87 0.179 87.5 9.0% 30.2%vs RHP 397 10.3% 7.7% 17.3% 16

5 Fernando Tatis 42 D — WARM 109 0.139 92.4 11.2% 12.5%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 38

6 Xander Bogaerts 36 D — WARM 142 0.102 88.5 7.8% 15.8%vs RHP 398 8.0% 7.7% 10.2% 32

7 Freddy Fermin 35 D — HOT 150 0.123 87.6 6.8% 6.7%vs RHP 382 3.1% 0.0% 9.4% 19

8 Jake Cronenworth 29 D — COOL 184 0.068 87.3 6.5% 10.0%vs RHP 389 1.4% 0.0% 7.8% 36

vs Michael King · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins ✶ 54 C — HOT 37 0.200 89.3 10.5% 22.6%vs RHP 389 14.6% 33.3% 22.6% 14

2 Angel Martinez 42 D — WARM 108 0.195 87.7 8.4% 27.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 29

3 Chase Delauter 41 D — · 113 0.162 91.2 7.5% 25.5%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 41

4 Travis Bazzana 39 D — · 128 0.143 88.4 6.2% 18.0%vs RHP 396 10.5% 0.0% 8.9% 26

5 Jose Ramirez 36 D — COOL 141 0.147 89.3 6.7% 10.8%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 30

6 Brayan Rocchio 34 D — WARM 160 0.115 86.5 5.4% 11.3%vs RHP 386 7.0% 0.0% 7.5% 36

7 Steven Kwan 23 D — COOL 195 0.062 83.7 1.6% 3.2%vs RHP 372 1.8% 9.1% 6.5% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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