TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ CHC

Playable air · 1.06×

STL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 9 mph cross 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

1:20p

-3 ↑

2:20p

-3 ↑

3:20p

-2 ↑

4:20p

-2 ↑

5:20p

conditions build late — the 4:20p window peaks -2

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 27 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 21 · vs Holmes → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 99

1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +525 C+ ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman +550 D ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +460 C ●●●○○

FADE Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 73

0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson +500 C ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +600 C ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 39.0% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Liberatore +525 0.260 · 90.2 · 10.3% 15.4% 39.0% F B O C+ 67

· — Alec Burleson vs Holmes Edge +500 0.195 · 91.9 · 8.3% 18.2% 23.8% F B O C 53

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Liberatore Edge +460 0.207 · 88.9 · 9.4% 18.2% 20.1% F B O C 57

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.200 · 89.5 · 9.9% 16.7% 19.6% F B O C 58

· CHC Dansby Swanson vs Liberatore Edge — 0.190 · 89.5 · 8.2% 15.4% 18.2% F B O C 53

· — Jordan Walker COOL vs Holmes +600 0.205 · 92.6 · 8.9% 9.1% 13.5% F B O C 53

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Liberatore — 0.216 · 91.5 · 10.0% 0.0% 18.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman HOT vs Liberatore Edge +550 0.156 · 88.3 · 6.3% 23.1% 16.7% F B O D 48

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Liberatore Edge +1000 0.103 · 86.0 · 3.2% 16.7% 7.8% F B O D 35

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Liberatore Edge +575 0.112 · 87.0 · 7.0% 12.5% 9.3% F B O D 42

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Liberatore +750 0.144 · 88.1 · 8.9% 7.7% 11.2% F B O D 48

· — Nathan Church COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.125 · 86.0 · 6.4% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 39

· — Jj Wetherholt vs Holmes Edge +1000 0.135 · 89.8 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

· — Ivan Herrera vs Holmes +750 0.142 · 89.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 37

· — Masyn Winn vs Holmes — 0.081 · 88.2 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

· — José Fermín vs Holmes +1000 0.115 · 86.8 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.5% BRK 40.3% OFF 14.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L

11.0% 14.0% 13.8% 12.4% C+ 67 +525

Ian Happ S Edge

14.6% 15.2% 1.4% 11.4% C 58 —

Seiya Suzuki R Edge

11.2% 9.5% 9.1% 10.4% C 57 +460

Michael Conforto L

10.5% 16.7% 12.5% 11.9% C 53 —

Dansby Swanson R Edge

6.5% 6.5% 12.1% 7.2% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Alex Bregman R Edge

3.2% 7.1% 6.1% 4.5% D 48 +550

Michael Busch L

12.2% 3.8% 2.2% 8.9% D 48 +750

110

Carson Kelly R Edge

6.5% 4.1% 5.6% 5.7% D 42 +575

149

Nico Hoerner R Edge

1.1% 0.9% 2.1% 1.2% D 35 +1000

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.9% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 14.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.8% 11.9% 10.0% 11.5% C 53 +500

Jordan Walker R

13.4% 11.5% 16.7% 13.1% C 53 +600

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

123

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.0% 4.3% 2.0% 7.4% D 40 +1000

129

Nathan Church L Edge

8.4% 6.4% 4.6% 6.8% D 39 —

137

Ivan Herrera R

6.3% 4.8% 6.7% 5.8% D 37 +750

163

José Fermín R

2.5% 2.2% 0.0% 2.0% D 34 +1000

179

Masyn Winn R

3.3% 2.0% 5.9% 3.1% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.9% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Swanson Bregman Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 9 mph cross 77°F open

-4

↑

7 mph · in

76°F

1:20p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

77°F

2:20p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

3:20p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

79°F

4:20p · peak

-2

↑

5 mph · in

78°F

5:20p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 77°F, wind 9 mph E (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 67 C+ +525 WARM 5 0.260 90.2 10.3% 26.9%vs LHP 396 19.7% 15.4% 39.0% 32

2 Ian Happ 58 C — COOL 19 0.200 89.5 9.9% 13.8%vs LHP 402 17.5% 16.7% 19.6% 27

3 Seiya Suzuki 57 C +460 · 22 0.207 88.9 9.4% 33.3%vs LHP 405 16.2% 18.2% 20.1% 34

4 Michael Conforto 53 C — COOL 43 0.216 91.5 10.0% 17.6% 399 6.8% 0.0% 18.3% 10

5 Dansby Swanson 53 C — · 44 0.190 89.5 8.2% 26.1%vs LHP 405 12.5% 15.4% 18.2% 32

6 Alex Bregman 48 D +550 HOT 73 0.156 88.3 6.3% 11.5%vs LHP 387 10.9% 23.1% 16.7% 43

7 Michael Busch 48 D +750 COOL 76 0.144 88.1 8.9% 11.4%vs LHP 401 12.2% 7.7% 11.2% 45

8 Carson Kelly 42 D +575 COOL 110 0.112 87.0 7.0% 20.0%vs LHP 413 7.1% 12.5% 9.3% 24

9 Nico Hoerner 35 D +1000 WARM 149 0.103 86.0 3.2% 7.1%vs LHP 381 5.9% 16.7% 7.8% 40

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Alec Burleson 53 C +500 WARM 42 0.195 91.9 8.3% 22.2%vs RHP 404 14.8% 18.2% 23.8% 28

2 Jordan Walker 53 C +600 COOL 47 0.205 92.6 8.9% 27.4%vs RHP 408 16.7% 9.1% 13.5% 33

3 Jj Wetherholt 40 D +1000 · 123 0.135 89.8 6.7% 16.2%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 9.1% 31

4 Nathan Church 39 D — COOL 129 0.125 86.0 6.4% 17.1%vs RHP 384 8.4% 9.1% 8.9% 36

5 Ivan Herrera 37 D +750 WARM 137 0.142 89.6 5.9% 17.8%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 40

6 José Fermín 34 D +1000 WARM 163 0.115 86.8 3.5% 7.7%vs RHP 388 5.7% 0.0% 6.7% 31

7 Masyn Winn 31 D — · 179 0.081 88.2 4.3% 8.7%vs RHP 390 3.5% 0.0% 6.8% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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